Thread by @CEBKCEBKCEBK

*If the IRGC dissolves* then Iran quickly goes from costly menace to productive & grateful & useful regional ally (Iraq was different). I’m happy the US is helping Israel prevent them from getting nukes & offing their leadership. But IRGC won’t fold so regime change’d go very bad

https://twitter.com/CEBKCEBKCEBK/status/1935350771920273682

If anything, helping the mullahs retain their official power might be good for weakening IRGC, bc the mullahs are so unpopular & weak, & bc they can only retain influence by further strengthening the liberal-democratic apparatus & culture, to keep IRGC from taking ever more power

Perhaps that’s ten times “too cute.” But the only thing that matters for actual regime there change is IRGC, & it’s the only actual reason regime change there is an awful idea, & everyone seems to be ignoring it like they ignored consanguinity, Sunni-Shia tensions, etc in Iraq 03

Still: seems like nobody serious is actually pushing regime change; providing Israel equipment etc for these targeted strikes is good by Trump, despite the haters, & despite the fans who say “let’s do regime change;” maybe Khamenei steps down, but if anything that gives IRGC room

I don’t really have political views on this (tho yes avoiding IRGC with nukes is worth Israel spending several US billions on airstrikes, & an attempt at regime change would make Iraq look easy)—If I did, I’d work on it instead of posting. But I care about understanding the world

In fact, I don’t really have political views period, at least on the internet; I just appreciate discourse that’s discursively fruitful. This conflict will never be affected by me, but I can affect my own personal development through it, by making mechanistic predictions about it

& it should go without saying that goodwill, productivity, stability, etc all go bye-bye if IRGC gets excuses to go all-out, including on their home turf, with presumable Russian/Chinese backing (another thing we didn’t really face in Iraq). Terrible idea!

https://x.com/CEBKCEBKCEBK/status/1935356062204305680

In the unlikely event that this potential operation winds up as regime change rather than targeted limited strikes, & in the unlikely event that regime change somehow winds up working well, my guess is IRGC somehow immediately lost will & capacity to do *anything*—happened w Hezb

Which makes me realize the Hezb news is odd: huge durable paramilitary terror cartel deep state & it just seemingly evaporates after the pager attack—which Google says only killed dozens—& allows the Aoun election to marginalize it; maybe phones mean nobody wants to fight anymore

Seems v unlikely IRGC would fold at all easily—& if anything drones etc from Russia mean it should be even easier than one might otherwise expect for them to unleash total DPRK-but-competent on everyone, conditional on anything like war. But I wouldn’t’ve predicted Hezb folding…