Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 22 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The following photo captures from WW2 bomb damage analysis documents are to calibrate people's eyes as to what to expect from the Fordow strike.

The MOP crater is going to be something called a "Camouflet" because the MOP will dig so deep before exploding.

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The problem with this US strike is the rock density in the Fordow area may be too much for the GBU-57/B MOP (See Grok below)

Unless there is really good intelligence showing a weakness in Fordow or...

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grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt…
...this MOP strike had several bombs with the same aim point and a timer setting for simultaneous detonation. Good results will be difficult.

WW2 testing showed hard crystallized limestone was a pain for semi-armor piercing bombs dropped from 16,000 feet to penetrate.

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Limestone isn't particularly hard compared to a number of volcanic and metamorphic rocks.

When the WW2 British scientist Barnes Wallace's Tallboy and Grand Slam were tested against steel reinforced concrete, the results were not good.

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The Tallboy and Grand Slam broke up when they were moving too fast or the tail wacked the concrete laterally while going through.

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The GBU-57/B MOP is built with those WW2 lessons plus the benefit of Defense Threat Reduction Agency basic & applied research starting in the late 1990's for deep penetrating bombs to destroy WMD's.

It still may not be enough for Fordow w/o special intel & tactics.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 22
Well, it wasn't a TACO moment.

This US strike on the Iranian nuclear program was paddy cake.

The Iranian smart move here is screaming a lot, doing little and waiting for a Democratic US President to build nukes.

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The dumbest of dumb moves by the Iranians would be laying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

That was what set off Operation Praying Mantis in the late 1980's which sank 1/2 of Iran's navy in a day.

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If the Iranians choose doing something dumb...

...US has positioned aerial assets in the Mid-East that are sufficient for a modestly large aerial bombardment effort for ~100+ tactical fighters⬇️

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Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
Ukrainian SF/intel teams are ripping up Russian rear areas, and possibly now RuAF strategic nuclear ICBM's, with armed small drones.⬇️

China will do the same to the USA with it's fighting age male "undocumented migrant" population, when it kicks off the invasion of Taiwan.

1/3
Small drones fitted with flux compression generator (FCG) non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) would be capable of zorching the electronics of a Cold War era ICBM physics packages, RV and midcourse bus inside a silo by landing on the missile hatch and going bang.

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A drone carried FCG (figure below) can emit a pulse similar to the E1 EMP from a nuclear weapon, at a higher than 50 KV/meter Cold War EMP protection standards.

It is a measure of the "Eek! A nuke!" phobias of US Flag ranks that this threat has been ignored since 2018.

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Read 4 tweets
Jun 18
Iran has been at war with the USA since 1979.

Every time the USA has fought back, like Operation Praying Mantis or killing IRGC chief Qasem Soleimani, it has won.

The Iranians last killed American servicemen on January 28, 2024.

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They were
- Sgt. William Jerome Rivers,
- Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sander and
- Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett
of the 718th Eng. Co., 926th Eng. Bat.

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I spent several years of my DCMA career inspecting Caiman MRAP and visiting subcontractors making armor kits to beat Iranian EFP roadside bombs.

There is a 46 year American blood price to be collected from the Mullah's.

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Read 4 tweets
Jun 17
A lot of Western military officers at all levels have been vociferously denying the systematic Russian use of Chemical weapons since the siege of Mariupol in 2022.

I expect this Western military delusion to continue.

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This is because acknowledging it was happening would require

1. Pronouncing the Chemical weapons convention is as dead as the London Naval treaty, and

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2. Spending money to do something about it, starting with the idea Chinese bug spraying drones will also be used to deliver nerve gas.

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Read 4 tweets
May 31
This is not new.⬇️

Enemies of the West have been using cellphone networks against Western militaries since the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

The Houthi are currently targeting ships in the Red Sea using the cell network they control to ping smart phones of ship crews.
1/
I did a thread on the exploitation of cell networks for drone targeting on December 2023.

2/
David Axe was talking about an early version of the Russian Drone cell phone navigation Serhii "Flash" is discussing in 2023.

3/
Read 9 tweets
May 30
I have been beating up on the Field Artillery crowd on X for literally years over the rapid firepower growth curve of drones compared to tube artillery.

Drones do cluster munitions far more accurately than tube artillery.

1/
Drones have more bang than a 155mm shell for a couple of years.

2/
And the shortages of Ukrainian artillery shells through out the Russo-Ukrainian War has meant drone surveillance was the prerequisite for shooting any tube artillery at all, be it cluster munition or unitary.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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