Ryan James Girdusky Profile picture
Jun 26 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
It's finally out! Pew Research's 2024 election analysis... Here's a 🧵of some hot takes:
Trump's base has nearly doubled with Hispanics and tripled with blacks since 2016, decreased by 10 points among whites.

Democrats has decreased a total of 6 points among black and Hispanics... increased 4 points among whites Image
15% of Biden 2020 voters didn't vote in 2024, 5% voted for Trump.

11% of Trump 2020 voters didn't vote in 2024, 3% voted for Harris.

14% of people who didn't vote in 2020 voted for Trump in 2024, 12% voted for Harris Image
Americans who didn't vote in 2016 but did in 2020 supported Biden by 5 points

Americans who didn't vote in 2020 but did in 2024 supported Trump by 12 points Image
Trump's support growth among certain demographics 2016 to 2024:

Whites: +1 points
Blacks: +9
Latinos: +20
Asians: +10 (since 2020)

White men: -3
White women: +4
(since 2020)
Black men: +9
Black women: +5
Latino men: +11
Latino women: +13 Image
Trump's support growth among certain demographics 2016 to 2024:

18-29 yr olds: +11
30-49 yr olds: +8
50-64 yr olds: +5
65+ yr olds: -2

Men 18-49 yr olds: +3
Men 50+ yr olds: +1
Women 18-49 yr olds: +15
Women 50+: +2 Image
Postgraduates: +4
College graduates: +5
Some College: +5
HS or less: +8

White w/ college: +5
White w/o college: 0

(since 2020)
Black w/ college: +8
Black w/o college: +7
Hispanic w/ college: +13
Hispanic w/o college: +11 Image
Protestants: +6
White Evangelicals: +6
Catholic: +3
White Catholic: -2
Unaffiliated: +4
Monthly or more often: +6
A few times a year or less: +5

Black Protestant (since 2020): +6
Non-white Protestant: +15
Latino Catholic: +10 Image
Since 2020:

Born in the USA: +2
Immigrants: +9

Among Immigrants:

White Immigrants: +14
Hispanics: +12
Asians: +9 Image
Fin.

I'll write a longer substack about this, so please subscribe
natpop.substack.com

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More from @RyanGirdusky

Oct 29, 2024
PA Absentee Ballot Request Update:

Dem: 1,177,242 (55.2%) +12,580 since 10/28
GOP: 685,011 (32.1%) +20,548 since 10/28
Indie: 271,702 (12.7%) +5,889 since 10/28

Change since 2022:
GOP: +396,341
Dem: +213,629

Change since 2020:
GOP: -76,713
Dem: -752,342 Image
Today is the last day of ballot requests, so I imagine tomorrow will be the last day of reporting.

Republicans are doing the best job they've ever done in a political cycle. And almost at 2020 levels, while Democrats are way down.
Republican ballot requests are larger in 2024 than they were in 2020 in dozens of counties. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 9, 2024
PA Absentee Ballot Request Update:

Dem: 962,256 (60.9%) +8,417 since 10/8
GOP: 435,862 (27.6%) +8,373 since 10/8
Indie: 182,359 (11.5%) +3,198 since 10/8

Change since 2022:
GOP: +136,598
Dem: -12,609

Change since 2020:
GOP: -336,456
Dem: -978,580 Image
Republicans are keeping up with Democrats on new ballot requests... something that they don't typically do.

I'm waiting till next week to see what it looks like with returns, where so far Democrats have a big advantage.
Most of the Democratic advantage is because Philadelphia, Allegheny, and Montgomery counties started accepting ballots before most GOP friendly counties by several weeks.

80% of Dem ballots come from those three counties compared to just 43% of GOP ballots returned.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 14, 2024
Twitter is really working hard on memory holing how bad polling was in 2020.

Yes, the RCP average for most of the Midwest was close right before the election but that's only because Traflgar and Insider Advantage moved the averages in PA and Michigan.
In Michigan, the average was Biden +4.2 and he won by 2.8, but subtract Insider Adv. and Trafalgar and the polls were far outside the margin of error:

CNBC: Biden +7
Mitchell: Biden +7
Reuters: Biden +10
MRA: Biden +7
CNN: Biden +12
NYT: Biden +8
Fox: Biden +12
ABC: Biden +7
Now look at PA, which RCP Average was Biden +1.2... exactly the amount he won by. Once again, take out Trafalgar and Insider Adv.

Susquehanna: Trump +1
Marist: Biden +5
Monmouth: Biden +7
Reuters: Biden +6
NYT: Biden +6
ABC/WaPo: Biden +7
Quinnipiac: Biden +7
Read 8 tweets
Mar 18, 2024
The trip to the border was eye opening. You really get the sense how little border enforcement there is.

I visited one migrant camp where about 100 migrants were waiting to get picked up. It was being run by Catholic Charities and had people from all over the world.


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A local who’s been in the area knew about it. First thing I noticed was the migrants began recording me and my group the minute we showed up. It was about 80 adults and 30 children, the guy from CC said they were mostly fleeing from the cartel but that wasn’t true.
Military-aged men from Southeast Asia were in their own group, there were also Africans, South Americans, and even some Europeans.

The local who brought me (he spoke Spanish) said a number of these kids were being trafficked.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
I understand that the establishment GOP media is trying to have this coordinated effort to takedown Trump… but they need to understand that no one likes them or trusts them either. Their pile on will make people more sympathetic to him.
Also it cannot be stressed enough how bad the establishment GOP screwed up this election. If McConnell complains about not having enough money for Arizona, then he shouldn’t have spent millions in the Alabama primary settling a score with Mo Brooks
Rick Scott was an utter disaster at NRSC where he spent the whole time floating if he wanted to run for majority leader or President. Emmer fumbled the ball over and over again at NRCC
Read 5 tweets
Sep 11, 2022
I read @pastpunditry’s oped in the Sunday Times about Pat Buchanan and was absolutely blown away at her lazy analysis of Buchanan’s political career.
Rather than note he was the genius mind that convinced Nixon to try and court ethnic whites from the court and pushed Reagan to nominate an Italian-American to court to gain stronger footing with them. Or voice concerns about Japan’s attempt to put Harley Davidson out of business
All she could muster is pathetic comparisons to David Duke, a man who came decades after Buchanan joined Nixon. Buchanan disavowed Duke repeatedly.

Buchanan got more inspiration from his friend Samuel Huntington than anyone else.
Read 4 tweets

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