🇨🇦 Canadians Are Jumping From One Fire Into Another 🔥➡️🔥
They’re fleeing the most overvalued real estate bubble in Canadian history… straight into the most overvalued U.S. stock market in over a century.
Here’s why this is dangerous. 🧵
1
In the first 5 months of 2025, Canadians poured an unprecedented C$59.9B into U.S.-issued securities — the biggest spike in 35 years. 📈
Source: NBC, StatCan.
2
This shift is partly explained by the cracks in Canada’s housing market — particularly in Ontario & BC — where debt-fueled price growth is finally reversing.
Investors think they’re escaping risk.
But history says they’re just changing it's shape.
A Comprehensive Analysis Through Economic Cycle Theory 🏠📊
The Magnitude of the Crisis 💸
The Toronto housing market has reached unprecedented levels of unaffordability, with the price-to-median after-tax income ratio at 17.8 times.
This represents a catastrophic departure from historical norms of 3-5 times income, creating what economists would classify as a severe asset bubble 📈
The underlying mathematics is staggering: between 1976 and 2022, real home prices increased by 512% while real incomes grew by only 15%.
This 34:1 ratio of price growth to income growth represents one of the most extreme housing affordability crises in developed world history.
Kondratieff Wave Analysis: The Fourth Wave's End Game 🌊
Within the framework of Kondratiev's Long Wave Theory, we are witnessing the final stages of the centralized fourth wave, which began around 1980. This wave has been characterized by:
The Financialization Phase (1980-2020)
Shift from productive to financial investment: Capital increasingly flowed into asset speculation rather than productive capacity.
Credit expansion: Debt-to-GDP ratios expanded dramatically across all sectors
Asset price inflation: Real estate, stocks, and bonds experienced unprecedented growth disconnected from underlying economic fundamentals
Wealth concentration: Asset holders benefited while wage earners saw their purchasing power erode
Approaching Economic Winter ❄️
Three of history's most powerful economic cycles are converging on our $2.6 trillion housing market. This isn't just another correction—it's a complete system rewrite.
Here's what you need to know 👇
2/15 📊
Ray Dalio's new "Big Debt Cycle" study reads like a roadmap for Canada today.
We're 80 years into a debt supercycle that always ends the same way: with a massive deleveraging.
Our household debt is 180% of our income.
We're in the danger zone.
3/15 ⚠️
The Big Debt Cycle has five stages:
🟢 Sound Money (1940s-70s)
🟡 Debt Bubble (1980s-2020s) ← We are here
🔴 The Pop (Now?)
🟠 Deleveraging (Coming)
🟢 Recovery (2030s?)
Canada's housing market is the bubble vehicle.