A 🧵 on stablecoins and Ethereum
1/
Stablecoins is the singular most successful crypto product and the only one to move into the "real world" with $250 billion in total assets

we are in the earliest days....
(keep reading plz)

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrell Image
2/
Stablecoins are a good business model and attracted the interest of banks $JPM $V and even merchants $AMZN $WMT

- issuers of stablecoins generate significant profits as the collateral (USD) can earn yield and this is not paid to holders of the stablecoin (yet)

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrell @WSJ @businessImage
Image
3/
Merchants like stablecoins but there is lower transaction costs and the merchants do not take the continuous loss from "chargebacks" which can run as high as 5%-6% of transaction dollar volume

- and BONUS: a large untapped market of users who do not use credit cards

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrellImage
4/
In fact, 80% of USD stablecoin volume is outside the US

- Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan nearly 40% of stablecoin volume
- in some nations USDT trades above $1.00 because of high demand
- even real estate transactions are paid with stablecoins

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrell Image
5/
US gov't realizes stablecoins = two structural benefits:

first, USD dominance surges in stablecoin/crypto:
- USD = 27% global GDP
- USD = 57% of global central bank reserves
- USD = 88% of liquid financial market
- USD = 100% of stablecoin denomination

The more assets move to the blockchain, the greater the demand for stablecoins:

= greater USD dominance
@fs_insight @SeanMFarrellImage
6/
The second benefit to USD: Stablecoins collectively now the 12th largest holder of US Treasuries

- Tether $USDT owns more UST than Germany

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrell Image
7/
Looking ahead, stablecoins is the "front end" of the convergence of financial services and crypto:

- the next generation may prefer to bank to be crypto-friendly company $HOOD $CRCL $COIN $JPM $GS

- hence, as banks likely to add crypto to their balance sheet Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH (staking)

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrell @WSJImage
8/
TREASURY STOCKS = BACKBONE FUTURE FINANCE:
In future, Banks, credit card issuers ($PYPL) and biz likely hold "crypto" on balance sheet as working capital:

- thus, "pure play" Treasury companies like $MSTR $SMLR $SBET $MTPLF $DFDV $UPEXI
- arguably represent the "high margin" component of future bank and financial institutions architecture

These $ETH $SOL Treasury stocks earn yield from staking which is a positive feature

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrell
9/
This is positive for the layer 1 blockchains issuing stablecoins

Why Ethereum? $ETH

- the majority of stablecoins minted on Ethereum
- most of the "real world assets" (RWA) in crypto are on Ethereum such as stablecoins, tokenized equities, tokenized real estate

@coingecko @SeanMFarrellImage
Image
10/
Stablecoin fees are 30% of Ethereum $ETH network fees today:

- @SecScottBessent recently said >$2 trillion USD market for stablecoins is reasonable
- this is 10X exponential growth in network fees for $ETH Ethereum
- other nations may mint stablecoins = upside

@fs_insight @SeanMFarrellImage
11/
That is it for now

Thank you to the @fundstrat @fs_insight crypto team for the data:

Sean Farrell @SeanMFarrell
Thomas Couture
Tireless Ken @tirelessken

Get our crypto research at @fs_insightFSinsight.com/tlee-services

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More from @fundstrat

Jul 30, 2023
🧵🪡
1/
Many say “markets expensive because P/E is 20x”

- one may not realize this is ascribing anchoring power to an abstract concept

Please read on 📖🤓👓…
2/
P/E is ratio between:

- price “P”
- earnings “E”

Each of these has an entire field devoted to each:

- technical analysis study of “P”
- fundamental analysis study of “E”
3/
Technical analysis looks at patterns, models and systems to determine probabilities of path of “P”

- note, technicians do not care about “E”

@MarkNewtonCMT of @fs_insight is an example

PS: @CMTAssociation of the leading organizations

cmtassociation.org
Read 9 tweets
Jul 6, 2023
A 🧵🪡

Looking forward to host this timely ⌛️🕰️ #webinar on Energy

- WHO: @MattG_PE CEO of @greenlakeenergy

- WHEN: 7/11 at 2pm ET for #FSInsight family members @fs_insight

…please keep reading
2/
Energy was a hero in 2022 and was our top sector pick in 2022

- $XLE gaining +57%
- $OIH gaining +64%

- $SPY declined -20%

Sizable outperformance even as crude only rose +7%
3/
2023 is a different story

- $XLE down -7%
- $OIH flat +0%

- $SPY gaining +16%

Energy is our #3 sector pick this year. At start of year:

- #1 FAANG/ Technology $QQQ $XLK
- #2 Industrials $XLI
Read 7 tweets
May 28, 2023
A 🧵 🪡
1/

On Friday, I was on @CNBCClosingBell and the segment was >20 minute covered some important ground

- it’s Sunday of a long weekend, so I wanted to share some perspectives
2/

Foremost, FANNG up 45% this year because earnings delivery has surprised to the upside

- look at $NVDA and $META others
- future forecast of earnings higher, supporting higher PE and on higher EPS

Our #FSInsight family members know this has been our top sector pick for 2023
3/

There are many who say the stock market is “so expensive” and therefore they are bearish

- ex-FAANG, PE is 15x
- two most expensive sectors
- Staples 20x and Utilies 19x
Read 5 tweets
May 26, 2023
🚨#fintwit I will be on @CNBCClosingBell today at 3pm ET hosted by the ‘judge’ @ScottWapnerCNBC

- heading into a holiday weekend

Hope y’all can tune in

@fs_insight @CNBC twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/

Doing this remote

See y’all soon Image
3/

Here is a clip in case you missed it
👇
Read 5 tweets
May 17, 2023
a 🧵🪡

1/

Update on our upgrade of Regional Banks "tactical buy" which we initiated on 5/7

- rationale on 5/7 was failure of $FRC created "temporary Fed put" for regional banks

- #Fed then paused

$KRE $NYCB $EWBC $WAL $BANC $CNOB
2/

Technical picture for $KRE regional banks has since strengthened sharply

- Regional banks registered "13" buy setup on @DeMarkAnalytics daily and weekly charts

- flagged by @MarkNewtonCMT

- and yesterday, we got the necessary "price flip" higher on $KRE Image
3/

As you can see, the Regional Bank "temporary Fed put" trade is outperforming the broader market

- summary of trade ideas is below Image
Read 5 tweets
May 12, 2023
A short 🧵🪡
1/

On why this plunge in #FINRA margin debt matters more you one realizes
👇

- margin debt tanked -35% off peak and -$330 billion
- greater than GFC peak to trough
- and 1.59% (% market cap) lowest since dot-com low
2/

2023 equity market has been a game of “inches” but bullish case has gained #anygivensunday

- this week’s soft side inflation readings strengthened case for #Fed pause

- and a “pause” reduces risk of a hard landing

So that’s a good thing

3/

At some point, some “tie breaker” data will emerge:

- either “soft” or “hard” landing

Here is the thing, investor positioning clearly “hard” landing as #FINRA margin shows

- if our base case of “soft” landing plays out
- expect a #stampede into equities

Positioning 🤔
Read 4 tweets

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