🧵🪡
1/
Many say “markets expensive because P/E is 20x”

- one may not realize this is ascribing anchoring power to an abstract concept

Please read on 📖🤓👓…

https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1685078224424824833

2/
P/E is ratio between:

- price “P”
- earnings “E”

Each of these has an entire field devoted to each:

- technical analysis study of “P”
- fundamental analysis study of “E”

A 🧵🪡

Looking forward to host this timely ⌛️🕰️ #webinar on Energy

- WHO: @MattG_PE CEO of @greenlakeenergy

- WHEN: 7/11 at 2pm ET for #FSInsight family members @fs_insight

…please keep reading

https://twitter.com/fs_insight/status/1676697292303388672

2/
Energy was a hero in 2022 and was our top sector pick in 2022

- $XLE gaining +57%
- $OIH gaining +64%

- $SPY declined -20%

Sizable outperformance even as crude only rose +7%

A 🧵 🪡
1/

On Friday, I was on @CNBCClosingBell and the segment was >20 minute covered some important ground

- it’s Sunday of a long weekend, so I wanted to share some perspectives 2/

Foremost, FANNG up 45% this year because earnings delivery has surprised to the upside

- look at $NVDA and $META others
- future forecast of earnings higher, supporting higher PE and on higher EPS

Our #FSInsight family members know this has been our top sector pick for 2023

https://twitter.com/cnbcclosingbell/status/1662176102838616081

🚨#fintwit I will be on @CNBCClosingBell today at 3pm ET hosted by the ‘judge’ @ScottWapnerCNBC

- heading into a holiday weekend

Hope y’all can tune in

@fs_insight @CNBC twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2/

Doing this remote

See y’all soon

a 🧵🪡

1/

Update on our upgrade of Regional Banks "tactical buy" which we initiated on 5/7

- rationale on 5/7 was failure of $FRC created "temporary Fed put" for regional banks

- #Fed then paused

$KRE $NYCB $EWBC $WAL $BANC $CNOB

https://twitter.com/MarketWatch/status/1655535660567089152

2/

Technical picture for $KRE regional banks has since strengthened sharply

- Regional banks registered "13" buy setup on @DeMarkAnalytics daily and weekly charts

- flagged by @MarkNewtonCMT

- and yesterday, we got the necessary "price flip" higher on $KRE

A short 🧵🪡
1/

On why this plunge in #FINRA margin debt matters more you one realizes
👇

- margin debt tanked -35% off peak and -$330 billion
- greater than GFC peak to trough
- and 1.59% (% market cap) lowest since dot-com low

https://twitter.com/fs_insight/status/1657036658968080387

2/

2023 equity market has been a game of “inches” but bullish case has gained #anygivensunday

- this week’s soft side inflation readings strengthened case for #Fed pause

- and a “pause” reduces risk of a hard landing

So that’s a good thing

https://twitter.com/fs_insight/status/1657038964614676490?s=46&t=ox_Iko2UDeJ6GX8T2qbNkw

A short 🧵🪡
1/7

Equity markets remain on a ‘hair trigger’ and today’s wobble probably due to $FRC and regional bank model concerns

👀 on #Fed FOMC 5/3-5/4

- we still expect a ‘dovish’ +25bp
- regional softness one factor
- other is lots of disinflation in pipeline 2/7

Case-Shiller showed upside surprise on price (MoM) but arguably as important is home prices went to ZERO YoY

- zero price inflation on homes
- @Redfin rent yoy negative
- Yet, #CPI showing 8.6% yoy gains for housing

CPI lagging real-time measures = disinflation in pipeline

🧵

1/

Stocks $SPY off to a strong start so far in 2023, gaining ~2% in first 5 days

- is this important?
- actually, it’s a big deal 2/
For 2023, pundits all reading off same menu:

- Fed gonna crush every rally until job market cracks + EPS going to fall in ‘23

- consensus thus, stocks fall in first half to 3,000 (S&P 500) and then maybe stocks recover to “flat” by YE

🧵
1/

After a horrendous year 2022, low expectations for 2023:

- mainly negative “E” from recession/EPS
- plus “tight” Fed

Positive catalysts = 2023 probably far better than “muted” expectations

Read on… 2/

“Mission accomplished” on 2% inflation

- inflation ⬇️ faster than markets expects
- Core PCE (#Fed measure) inflation ann. 2.6% in Nov
- this is 3M annualized, and ex-housing

At this pace, Dec ‘22/Jan ‘23, could show 3M ann. Core PCE ex-housing ~2.0%-ish and overall <3%

Did the #ransomware attack at @HaverAnalytics result in an inadvertent #FOMC projection error?
🧵

1/5

#FOMC presser (12/14) contained a statement by #Powell that seemed at odds with incoming data

- #Powell said “we’re going into next year with higher inflation” vs Sept FOMC 2/5

As their SEP (survey of economic projections) shows:

- ‘22 raised 4.8% vs 4.5%
- this raised 2023 inflation
- and added to “higher for longer”

While Fed chair #Powell was "hawkish" in FOMC presser, his statements revealed key factors to "dovish" path

- labor “I don’t see the case for real softening just yet.”
- inflation “we haven’t seen inflation coming down.”
- housing “still some significant increases coming”

1/10 Labor statement below:
- Powell says no sign softening
- yet today's jobs report shows unemployment rate rose +0.2% to 3.7%
- that is a sign of softening

2/10

What we cover on #fsinsight member call today at 1pm ET.

- NY state outperforming best case Cuomo models
- Top 8 states (50% GDP) outperforming NY
- Why case growth marks relative bottom
- If Oct 08 (not Mar 09), what worked

Sign up for free trial fsinsight.com

1/4 8 states are 50% of US GDP
- CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, NJ
- of these, NJ is doing worse than NY

NY state is 4,750 cases per 1mm people, or 1 in 200 has COVID-19 confirmed. Could be 1 in 20 based on missed tests.

2/4