Thread by @SteB777

I admit to having made a huge error. In my time commenting on the Guardian, I thought I had explained enough about the climate and ecological crisis, to straighten out many of the misconceptions about it. But obviously I hadn't.
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I know much of my commenting was well read and influential. It was not a guess. Just before the pandemic, the former editor of the Guardian Environment section, the late John Vidal, invited me to his Nature Festival in Oswestry, because he told me he wanted to meet me.
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He told me that he and the current Guardian Environment Editor Damian Carrington were very impressed by my arguments. George Monbiot was very complimentary, and referenced me in some of his articles.
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I could go on, but I do not want to blow my own trumpet. But the important part is that there are serious faults and errors in the thinking of most influential people about the causes of the climate and ecological crisis.
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In fact, in my 65 year life, and 55 years of following the climate and ecological crisis, I have only known of one human being, who does not regularly make these fundamental errors in their thinking about the crisis, and that is @GretaThunberg.
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However, I should make it clear, that I am only talking about Westerners, from developed countries. I am sure that many from indigenous cultures, have correct thinking about the nature and causes of this polycrisis.
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This might come across, as me saying that only I, only Greta and those from indigenous cultures understand the crisis. No, my insight is very different from Western intellectualism, although I am very familiar with Western intellectualism, and quite good at using it.
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You see, my certainty, is not based on my knowing everything. My certainty, is about what is mistaken, and what is clearly wrong, not any certainty that I know what is best. Knowing what is mistaken and clearly wrong, is far more important, than thinking you know the answer.
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For a long time, when people criticised what I said, I couldn't be certain I was right. However, I am primarily an observer. When people told me I had got it wrong, that our politicians, thinkers and system had got the answers, I was sceptical, but I remained open-minded.
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Exactly, as I had long suspected all these political answers to the climate and ecological crisis, that other people assured me would work, have fallen by the wayside and I can be absolutely certain, that none of our politicians have any realistic solutions.
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I am not arrogant, I am not egotistical. Perhaps I had got it wrong. Maybe our politicians, maybe our Western thinkers did really have the answers they claimed, they had. I was open to being mistaken.
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My great certainty, that no mainstream politician, no thinker in the Western intellectual tradition, has the answers or solutions, or even any useful analysis of the situation, is based on listening to what they said, over many decades, and then seeing what happened.
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I have seen enough, I have bent giving people the benefit of the doubt, as far as it can go. I can state with great certainty, that not only does no Western intellectual have the answer, but most are profoundly mistaken, about a lot.
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I can hear people saying, didn't I say that @GretaThunberg is the only Westerner I know of, not to be making fundamental errors in what we need to do, to address this crisis, and to stop it becoming a catastrophe? Yes, I said that.
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You see, #GretaThunberg is often criticised for not having a plan, a solution to address this crisis. This is the foundation of her not being mistaken and not making the fundamental thinking errors, the rest are making.
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You cannot solve this deep wicked problem, by coming up with a plan and solutions - first. This is a fundamental thinking error.

Plans and solutions, can only be put into operation, once there is a consensus to address the crisis they're meant to solve*.
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This is the real deep problem, the actual climate and ecological crisis.

There's never been any consensus or commitment, to stopping and changing the processes and the actions, driving the climate and ecological polycrisis. No possibility of any sort of planned solution.
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Until or unless we're willing to give up business as usual BaU, and to commit to doing everything and anything necessary to stop the climate/ecological/biodiversity/social justice crisis getting worse, there can't be a solution to this crisis. Without this, plans are pure BS.
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I can hear people saying, what has social justice got to do with any of this?

Well, we can only have a workable solution to this crisis if everyone, or most are willing to work together for the common good of every one, creating a sustainable system.
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Climate justice, social justice, is inherent to addressing the climate and ecological crisis, and there is no way around it.

We cannot prevent an entirely preventable catastrophe, if competing groups are trying to get some advantage, through their solutions.
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In other words, THE most important first step to solving this crisis is to get a working consensus, to doing everything necessary to address this crisis, and to prevent the collapse of our civilization. Until this happens, we are going nowhere. There are no shortcuts.
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We must be entirely focused on getting that consensus and persuading people of the need for it. Everything else, is a complete and utter distraction.

We're going nowhere without it.
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Of course, such a movement, such a consensus, cannot be created overnight.

For such a movement to succeed, it must keep growing, and it MUST have no divisions This is the main reason why plans are a thoroughly BAD idea.
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This is always what splits movements, when factions argue that their plan or solution, is better than that of the other factions. There is no need for a plan, or plans, until that consensus exists.

Just make it simple, there is a crisis, and we must address it.
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This is why the agreed message must be very simple. There is a climate and ecological crisis, and if we don't fully address the causes of this crisis, it will collapse our civilization and create global catastrophe.

25/theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

To recap, before I go on. Any attempt to address the climate and ecological crisis, without:

1) A commitment to address and change all causes of the climate and ecological crisis.

2) To get a consensus for doing that.

Is, bound to fail, and is based on a fundamental error.
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The first and foremost problem, is in the West, the rich countries, only look for solutions and answers, that preserve the status quo, the system as it is, BaU.

Which is just absurd, considering that is what is driving the crisis.
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I repeatedly hear people argue, that "we" mustn't give up what we've achieved, our modern lifestyles.

Who is this "we"?

Less than 18% of the global population own a car, over 80% have never flown. So this "we" is less than 20% of humanity.
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In fact, owning a car, and taking the occasional flight, does not mean you're in this comfortably off minority driving the climate crisis. For this, we're really talking about the top 10%, probably the top 1-5%.

29/theguardian.com/us-news/2023/n…

So this argument about preserving lifestyles, actually only applies to a tiny minority, even in rich countries, as they are producing the lion's share of emissions and consumption. It's all totally irrational. Civilization collapse, would rapidly end these lifestyles.
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I don't want to get bogged down in this, and I am just illustrating one of the many false assumptions, and thinking errors, embedded in the thinking of the vast majority of Western environmentalists, and climate activists.
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Unless you are will to agree to the eventual phasing out of all activities driving emissions, global declines in biodiversity, then this will not prevent civilization collapse, and everything that goes with it, like mass starvation.
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“There are now no non-radical futures. The choice is between immediate and profound social change or waiting a little longer for chaotic and violent social change. In 2023 the window for this choice is rapidly closing.” @KevinClimate

33/bellacaledonia.org.uk/2023/04/18/no-…

It's not a choice. Either we radically change our system, or the Earth's natural systems, will collapse our civilization, and all that will ensue. Change is coming whether we like it or not.

Any thinking that sees this as a choice, is profoundly mistaken and faulty thinking.
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In other words, there is a clear hierarchy of priorities and parameters of what must happen to address this crisis, and to prevent catastrophe.

Anything else is denial and meaningless noise.
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First, we must address the whole crisis. All the causes of this crisis. Those causes, are just about the whole of our current system. Either we radically reform this system, or it is going to get radically reformed, in the most unpleasant way. Keeping BaU, is not an option.
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Second, we must get a consensus (this doesn't mean getting everyone to agree to it), who agrees that we must fix all of the problems driving the crisis, if we're going to effectively prevent catastrophe.
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I am well aware of the argument, that we need a plan for everyone to get behind, and somehow this will create the consensus to address the crisis. This is absolute nonsense. There have been thousands of plans, and they just create division.
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Plans are a guaranteed way to create division in those demanding action, which is why the enemies of action, demand that #GretaThunberg etc, come up with plans. Plans create ego battles, and division.

Focus on getting a consensus first.
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I have barely scratched the surface of the multiple thinking errors in those advocating climate action.

However, as very few, first advocate getting a consensus, and even fewer argue against plans, I needn't add any more here.
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I'm sure some will tell me what I say, isn't realistic, as most won't agree to it. By most they mean the minority of the global population living problem lifestyles. But it really isn't a choice. If you argue this, you're arguing for the collapse of our civilization.
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There is only one choice. Either we radically change our system, or we accept the collapse of our civilization, and the mass starvation, which will follow. It really is a simple as that.
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