More info on the US deficit progress.
At the end of February, the US deficit was up 38% compared to the fiscal year YTD for 24. So YoY. Receipts were up 2%. Spending was up 13%. The Biden admin really had blown it out.
At the end of April, receipts were up 5%, spending was up 9%, and the deficit was up 23% fiscal YTD YoY. So improvement.
At the end of June, receipts were up 7%, and spending was up 6%. The fiscal YTD deficit was up 5% YoY. This is very strong progress!
Other interesting info. By June, YTD receipts were up 254 billion. Only 52 billion of that came from higher tariffs. An additional 11 billion was excise taxes. The bulk arose from considerably higher income and FICA receipts. This is very inconsistent w/ a recession.
How did that happen? Employment gross figures don't show anything to account for it. My guess is that we are seeing more legal employment. A large number of undoc/illegal workers just claim a ton of dependents and don't pay much in income tax. Otherwise, I can't explain this.
A second point: the new admin (TRUMP) really is working on the spending. Overall, this is much healthier looking picture. As the courts are overruled, they'll make more progress. I would think that the working class is going to be much happier in a year.
A third point: Why is the press not reporting this? I read the WSJ and other papers. There's no reporting of this. None. A hundred articles about some poor fool jumping off a roof and killing himself trying to evade ICE, but no info on this.
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$tsla - As I suggested, Tesla did work a fleet sales deal in China. It is to state-owned companies in Shanghai, and is probably linked with the storage factory construction, which began in May - notable because Tesla was cutting expenses everywhere else. cnevpost.com/2024/07/05/mul…
It is pretty standard in China for provinces to prefer local enterprises. Undoubtedly the five-year no interest deal will help this, or the state-owned companies will get favorable fleet pricing. So I expect these sales to continue at least through Q3.
Even with the five-year no-interest deal and fleet sales, Tesla's Q2 domestic Chinese sales were only 145,897, a YoY drop of 6.88%. First half domestic sales dropped 5.37%. Tesla's share in the Chinese NEV/BEV market keeps dropping as well. cnevpost.com/2024/07/08/tes…
NHTSA's $tsla ODI on Autopilot/FSD is out, and it is devastating. It's short:
If you go outside and cup your ear in urban areas, you will hear a loud ka-ching, ka-ching. That is the sound of personal injury lawyers experiencing a mass orgiastic event. 1/Xstatic.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/I…
This report could not be worse for $tsla, because it means that every lawyer filing an injury case for a non-driver involved w/ a Tesla crash involving Autopilot or FSD starts in a winning position w/ a jury. Tesla insurance just got a whole lot less profitable.
In particular, the analysis of frontal crashes is so awful that Tesla should really just settle every one of these cases. This is the sort of stuff that makes juries really mad. These are BAD stats. 3/X
$TSLA. Independent data on Tesla's FSD is hard to find. But TeslaFSDTracker has been running for a long time, and what it shows is that V12 is not producing rapid improvement, and that FSD is pitifully far away from reaching the metrics at which one could start autonomy tests.
So Musk is claiming on Twitter that car loans are hard to get, even for buyers w/ good credit. No, I won't retweet him. Let's think about why this might affect Tesla buyers uniquely. Gee what happened over the past year?
Just to recap, in April of 2022 the starting price of a Model Y LR AWD was 63K. The price increased to 66K in June. That's without delivery charge. What is it now? 50K. So, from a banker's POV who has been making Tesla car loans w/ a 10% downpayment: 63 - 56.7.
Now add sales, tags, delivery, and we are probably back to 63K in most places. Bankers have to constantly re-rate their loan portfolios. These loans are toxic now no matter how good the credit score, because they are so underwater!
#TSLA
Per 10-Q Tesla did incorporate IRA battery credits into COGS. As expected. Gross automotive margin would have been worse otherwise.
Tesla has been paying below 10% in taxes since it became profitable. I would expect Tesla to be subject to the special alternative minimum corporate tax contained in the IRA bill. They just say they are watching it. Next year Tesla's special low tax rate in China should increase.
Long-lived assets in Germany are up to 3.85 billion vs China's 3 billion. For a factory that is making maybe 1/3rd the number of cars. There is no possibility that Berlin will even approach Shanghai's margins. Labor costs are notably higher, as are inputs.
I am caught by the intense irony embodied in the Tornetta case. We won't get a ruling for months, based on the the preferred scheduling of the parties. So to stop myself from obsessing over this, here's what has captured my attention. 1/X
The basics: the case turns on whether Musk's Tesla 2018 executive award case was properly granted. It is nearly impossible to win such a case in DE, given that the board voted the grant and then a majority of the disinterested shareholders voted "Yes" at a special meeting.
3/X That the case got as far as a DE courtroom is only because the plaintiff really did have some facts to show that this was not an arms-length transaction, and the plaintiff also alleges that the proxy was not complete enough for the shareholders to make an informed decision.