Retired grumpy, computer programmer. Incurably skeptical, which makes me good at many things but often unpopular. @k_salberta@masto.ai No blue check
Apr 26 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
NHTSA's $tsla ODI on Autopilot/FSD is out, and it is devastating. It's short:
If you go outside and cup your ear in urban areas, you will hear a loud ka-ching, ka-ching. That is the sound of personal injury lawyers experiencing a mass orgiastic event. 1/Xstatic.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/I…
This report could not be worse for $tsla, because it means that every lawyer filing an injury case for a non-driver involved w/ a Tesla crash involving Autopilot or FSD starts in a winning position w/ a jury. Tesla insurance just got a whole lot less profitable.
Apr 20 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
$TSLA. Independent data on Tesla's FSD is hard to find. But TeslaFSDTracker has been running for a long time, and what it shows is that V12 is not producing rapid improvement, and that FSD is pitifully far away from reaching the metrics at which one could start autonomy tests.
2/X Those interested should follow this site. teslafsdtracker.com
Apr 30, 2023 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
So Musk is claiming on Twitter that car loans are hard to get, even for buyers w/ good credit. No, I won't retweet him. Let's think about why this might affect Tesla buyers uniquely. Gee what happened over the past year?
Just to recap, in April of 2022 the starting price of a Model Y LR AWD was 63K. The price increased to 66K in June. That's without delivery charge. What is it now? 50K. So, from a banker's POV who has been making Tesla car loans w/ a 10% downpayment: 63 - 56.7.
Apr 24, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
#TSLA
Per 10-Q Tesla did incorporate IRA battery credits into COGS. As expected. Gross automotive margin would have been worse otherwise.
Tesla has been paying below 10% in taxes since it became profitable. I would expect Tesla to be subject to the special alternative minimum corporate tax contained in the IRA bill. They just say they are watching it. Next year Tesla's special low tax rate in China should increase.
Nov 20, 2022 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
I am caught by the intense irony embodied in the Tornetta case. We won't get a ruling for months, based on the the preferred scheduling of the parties. So to stop myself from obsessing over this, here's what has captured my attention. 1/X
The basics: the case turns on whether Musk's Tesla 2018 executive award case was properly granted. It is nearly impossible to win such a case in DE, given that the board voted the grant and then a majority of the disinterested shareholders voted "Yes" at a special meeting.
Nov 10, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1/X A thread of awed hilarity: FinCEN is a word which strikes terror into the heart of every sane banker. fincen.gov
The moment you step into their domain, you are their bitch. Just do whatever they ask, believe me. Twitter.X has now filed to register an MSB.
2/X Yes, it has! washingtonexaminer.com/policy/technol…
Oct 21, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
RE CFIUS/Twitter, a thread. 1/X This is ridiculous. For the Twitter purchase to be blocked, Musk would have to be an agent of a foreign power. The national security concerns are probably real, but they relate to SpaceX/Starlink & Tesla, not Twitter.
2/X Well more than 50% of Tesla's production is in China (and this is not dropping!), and more than the Chinese production is dependent upon Chinese supply lines. Thus, the Chinese government does probably have a large amount of control over Musk through Tesla.
