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Jul 15, 2025 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
What does EAM Jaishankar's visit to China mean?

India is flying Dalai Lama in IAF plane to Ladakh.

India is negotiating Trade deal without getting under any tariff deadline feature.

India has set the BRICS 2025 Agenda.

Trump Tantrums are not going well.

West has already surrendered to Extremism.

De-dollarisation happening faster than ever.

India and China are only two economic hotspots.

India is moving from balancing powers to becoming the one.

Who will dominate it?

Read this till end:Image
Something is shifting in the global balance of power. While the West struggles with inflation, extremism, and war fatigue, India is rising as a stable, pragmatic, and assertive voice in global affairs.

In the last 6 months, India has played a central role in defense, trade, diplomacy, and conflict resolution—with strategic outreach to the US, China, Russia, EU, and the Global South.

What is India doing with China?Image
India’s strategy with China is now very different than before . In early 2025, India resumed the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and restored Delhi–Lhasa flights—seemingly thawing ties.

Simultaneously, it hosted Tibet-linked cultural events and raised border concerns through diplomatic backchannels.

India’s NSA and EAM met Chinese top officials but stuck to “status quo is not peace” doctrine.

India is making it clear: peace is possible, but not on China’s unilateral terms. By mixing religious diplomacy with realpolitik, India is keeping its options open—dialogue without dilution.Image
The Hard Bargain: India–US Trade Negotiations
India is playing tough on trade—rightfully so.

As Trump pushes an Aug 1 tariff hike deadline, India has refused to buckle under pressure.

Instead, it's pushing a “low-hanging fruit” interim deal, focused on tariff reductions in chemicals, textiles, and electronics—but leaving out dairy and agriculture to protect farmers.

Sources say Washington may cap tariffs below 20% (down from 26%) just to secure a deal.

If this goes through, India's export sectors—especially MSMEs—could see a 0.3–0.5% GDP boost. It’s strategic negotiation, not surrender, rooted in domestic strength.Image
India and the United States have quietly upgraded their defense and trade relationship.

In July 2025, both sides finalized a new 10-year defense framework, expanding joint exercises, tech transfers, and arms sales.

India, already operating US platforms like C-130Js, Apaches, and P-8Is, is negotiating the purchase of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stryker armored vehicles.

This is not mere buying—it’s about joint production and tech access. Strategically, India is shifting from being a buyer to being a co-developer, aligning with the U.S. Indo-Pacific vision while safeguarding its autonomy.Image
Failure of Trump Tantrums:

Trump has not been able to close any of the trade deal as of now if you keep aside few smaller ones.

Manufacturing not coming back to US.

Peace brokering not working in Ukraine -Russia war.

For him there is nothing to show apart from false claim of Ind-Pak war and Congo conflict.

India is making most of it at the trade negotiation table.Image
India–EU: Quiet Progress on a Crucial Front
While media attention often tilts toward US or China, India’s trade negotiations with the European Union may be its most important long-term bet.

In May 2025, both sides agreed to fast-track a comprehensive FTA. Five key chapters—IP, customs, sustainability, and dispute resolution—are already closed. Talks now focus on digital trade, services, and data flow.

This could unlock billions in new investments, diversify India’s export markets, and make it a tech-manufacturing alternative to China.

Quietly but surely, India is stitching a new trade architecture in the West.Image
India–Russia: Silent Strength and Smart Strategy
Crude oil import reached to 40% of total import from Russia.

Defence ties are growing at unprecedented rate. India is looking for joint production of S-500 and there are talks for Su-57 customized to India's needs.

Do You observe the balance ? India is acting like boss here with every group.Image
India’s Global South Push: Voice of the Majority
India is not just talking to power—it’s speaking for the powerless. At the BRICS Summit in Brazil, Modi called for local-currency trade and a Global South-led development bank.

He announced a vaccine hub in Ghana, met diaspora in Trinidad, and held lithium talks with Argentina.

India’s G20 presidency laid the foundation; now its Global South diplomacy is deepening.

This isn’t charity—it’s long-term positioning. By leading emerging markets, India isn’t just another voice at the global table—it’s building the table itself.Image
WTO, UK FTA, and India’s new trade playbook.

India’s UK Free Trade Agreement (signed May 2025) is its broadest yet—covering goods, services, mobility, and mutual recognition of standards. It’s a model for future pacts.

At the WTO, India is doubling down—blocking moves that harm farmers, resisting developed nations’ pressure to drop its developing-country status. With global trade rules under flux, India is no longer a passive player.

It’s shaping outcomes to protect domestic priorities while opening strategic sectors. Trade is not just commerce—it’s geopolitics. And India is proving that it can balance protectionism with purposeful liberalization.
Defense: India’s military modernization accelerates.

India is rapidly upgrading its defense capabilities. Over the past year, it procured Apache helicopters, P-8I patrol aircraft, and the Russian S-400 system.
Indigenous production is booming—defense exports have grown 34× in a decade, and India now exports to over 85 countries.

Joint exercises like Malabar with the US, Japan, and Australia enhance readiness and signal intent in the Indo-Pacific.

With a focus on deterrence, surveillance, and rapid response, India isn’t preparing for war—it’s preparing to avoid one by strengthening credibility. And in modern geopolitics, credibility is deterrence.
India’s balancing act on Ukraine and Gaza.
In both Ukraine and Gaza, India has taken a principled neutrality stance. It abstained from the UN's Feb 2025 Ukraine ceasefire resolution and declined to back a US-led ‘Path to Peace’ draft.

In June, it abstained again on a Gaza ceasefire resolution—its 4th abstention in 3 years.

Critics see ambiguity, but it’s strategic non-alignment—India urges dialogue while avoiding entanglement.

This careful calibration maintains ties with the West, Russia, and the Arab world. In a world of binary choices, India remains unbought and unbullied.
Conclusion: From balancing power to becoming one.

In the last 6 months, India has shown it can deepen ties with the US without isolating Russia, talk trade with the EU while standing up to the WTO, engage China without compromising on Tibet, and lead the Global South without echoing China.

It is no longer a swing state—it is a swing force. Strategic autonomy is no longer a slogan—it’s a playbook. And in the emerging multipolar order,

India is not choosing sides—it’s being chosen by all. The world isn’t tilting East or West anymore—it’s turning towards India.Image

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More from @deepdownanlyz

Dec 16, 2025
Tariffs were supposed to kill India’s exports.

The economy was declared “dead”.

Trump raised duties.

Raghuram Rajan said Pakistan played it smart and got the better deal.
Reality check:

After 8.2% GDP growth for last quarter, India surpassed all predictions with its exports in November.

India’s exports jumped 19% to $38.13B in November. Exports to the US surged 22.6% YoY and 10% MoM.

Pakistan’s exports to the US fell ~15% in the same month.

Turns out noise does not move trade. Strategy does.

Thread. 👇Image
Image
November 2025 changed the debate. Merchandise exports jumped 19% YoY to $38.13B, and total exports (goods + services) hit $73.99B.

India’s export growth was not narrow. It was broad-based.

Major drivers in November 2025:
• Engineering goods +23.76%
• Electronic goods +38.96%
• Gems and jewellery +27.80%
• Drugs and pharmaceuticals +20.91%
• Petroleum products +11.65%

This matters because many of these sectors are either higher value or less tariff-sensitive.

The merchandise trade deficit slumped from a record ~$41.7B in October to $24.53B in November — far better than market estimates.

India’s exports to the U.S. rose 22.6% in November to $6.98 billion, which is even higher than its exports of $6.31 billion in the prior month.

India’s exports to the U.S. were down 8.6% in October and 11.9% in September.

India’s exports of goods and services for November were up 15.52% at $73.99 billion.

Those are not small moves: they show exports rose while imports eased, tightening external balances in one month.Image
Image
US TRADE: REBOUND DESPITE HIGH TARIFFS

India’s merchandise goods trade deficit, which had touched a record high of roughly $41.7 billion in October, shrank to $24.5 billion in November, beating a Reuters poll estimate of $32 billion.

Even with US duties increased (extra 25% in Aug, taking some lines to ~50%), exports to the US rose ~22.6% in November to ~$6.98B, reversing falls in September-October.

That rebound came from shifting product mix and higher-value shipments rather than volume-led commodity pushes. In short: tariffs raised costs, but exporters changed what and how they sold.Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8, 2025
IndiGo Chaos was planned well in advance in May 2025.

It was designed to bring Govt to its toes.

DGCA and Civil Aviation were never the target of this chaos.

Air India crash was the starting point.

It is part of a complicated geo politcal battle.

Read this till the end.Image
Turkish connection:

IndiGo codeshares to 40+ European/US points via Turkish; reciprocal for Turkish on Indian routes.

Turkish airline is the major partner.

The major shareholder of Turkish Airlines is the Türkiye Wealth Fund (Turkish Wealth Fund), which holds approximately 49.12% of the company's shares.

This fund's chairman is President Erdogan.

Turkey has been the biggest logistical and political supporter of Pakistan during Op Sindoor.

Along with Pakistan Turkey also lost credibility of its drones and business due to India cancelling contracts for Turkish companies and Indians bycotting Turkey in different forms.

Before Air India crash on June 12, explosives...Image
were found on Turkish Airlines flight surprise check in India a week prior to deadly crash.

Remember India suspended contracts of Celebi Airport Services India Private Limited. Erdogan's duaghter is a major share holder there.

After the deadly crash there were reports of Air India facing trouble, emergency landing and so on.

It created mistrust among people and passengers prefered IndiGo more.

Now comes the second twist in the tail.

Is Turkey the one behind all this? Answer is yes but not alone.

It is again just a front to do the execution.

Remember....Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10, 2025
Something is not adding up.

Large scale GPS spoofing reporting coupled of days back.

ISI operatives arrested in Gujarat.

Now tons of explosives found with doctors in Faridabad.

What if the GPS “spoofing” around Delhi Airport last week wasn’t just a random tech glitch… but part of a larger counterintelligence game?Image
Image
The timing is too sharp to ignore because:
1. Visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu
2. Visit of Russian President Putin in December.
3. Preceded by Series of NOTAMs across India
4. Now back to back arrests and 2900KG explosive

In recent days, Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), Delhi’s busiest hub, saw an unusual spike in navigation disturbances. Articulated in news reports: fake GPS signals — a phenomenon called “spoofing” — misled aircraft position systems within roughly 60 nautical miles of the airport.

At the same time, the main runway’s Instrument Landing System (ILS) had been temporarily withdrawn for upgrading to Category III status — meaning aircraft were more reliant than usual on satellite-based navigation.

Put together: a scenario where normal defences were weaker — and something tested India’s air-domain resilience.Image
What exactly was going wrong? Spoofing differs from jamming: instead of blocking signals, fake GPS transmissions make receivers believe they are somewhere they aren’t.

At IGIA, while ILS was offline for upgrade, aircraft were relying on RNP (Required Navigation Performance) which depends on GPS. Once GPS signals started getting manipulated up to 60 nm out, authorities flagged the risk. The gap between ground-aids and satellite-aids became a vulnerability — one that apparently adversaries or non-state actors tested.

There are many possibilities of what's going on behind the scene:Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 7, 2025
Alarm bells at Delhi Airport.🚨

Something unusual happening since last few days.

400 flights were ground for 2 hours.

Is "failed attempt" duringSCO summit on Modi still in action?

In the past few days, pilots arriving into IGI have reported odd GNSS behaviour: their navigation systems showing incorrect positions, altitudes or paths — clear signs of GPS spoofing, where fake satellite signals are beamed to confuse aircraft.

This is far more serious than a routine tech glitch: when approach paths are compromised, aircraft must divert or go manual...Image
Image
increasing workload for controllers, raising safety risk.

Add to this that IGI already had a partially limited landing system (ILS upgrade ongoing) and an easterly wind change forcing arrivals from the Dwarka side, and you get a perfect storm.

The message: the skies over India’s busiest airport just got a lot more hazardous not just from weather, but from cyber-physical interference.

WAS A VVIP THE TARGET — OR WAS IT A MESSAGE?
Delhi was handling heavy VVIP and election-related air movements (Bihar) with choppers, charters, and security flights crisscrossing the same corridors.

Combine that with a sudden string of spoof events and an ATC messaging failure that delayed hundreds of flights, and you have the anatomy of an intimidation campaign: create fear, force movement, paralyze decision-making.

We have every right to ask whether this was a message aimed at our leadership — recall the recent reporting and heated speculation around assassination plots and suspicious foreign footprints at international forums.

Allegations exist in the public domain; investigators must follow these leads openly, not petulantly dismiss them. Treat this as potential state-level coercion by hostile proxies until proven otherwise.

THE NEW BATTLEFIELD IS SIGNALS — NOT JUST STRIPES.Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 15, 2025
Pakistan's Afghanistan Crisis: What Orchestrated it?

To eliminate TTP chief?

Absolutely NOT.

Then?

There are multiple factors including Op Sindoor.

This conflict can go longer than what it seems.

Read this thread till the end.Image
Image
Pakistan’s cross-border strikes into Afghanistan can't be understood simply as counterterrorism.

Domestically, Islamabad is facing escalating unrest among the Baloch and Pashtun populations protests, demands for rights, accusations of enforced disappearances, economic neglect.

The army’s image, once almost uncontested, is under pressure as the primary “institution” holding the country together.

By projecting external threats, the civil-military complex seeks to reassert its indispensability.

The Afghan front ....Image
...becomes the dramatic stage for showing “we are protecting the nation,” even as discontent grows at home in structurally marginalized regions.

There is also a palpable desire in Pakistani leadership to demonstrate loyalty to Washington.

The talk of reclaiming Bagram Airbase by the US under Trump has drawn regional concern. By engaging in high-stakes military operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan appears to be indicating that it is still a willing security partner, able to act militarily, share intelligence, and tighten cross-border pressure.

In doing so, Islamabad may hope for political, financial, intelligence or diplomatic rewards from the US. The base issue is symbolic of US strategic priorities in South Asia and China’s growing influence.Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 12, 2025
Pakistan is about to serve POJK on platter to India.

Modi-Shah-Doval had pressed panic button back in 2019.
Dont forget Doval's work in China.

Pahalgam Attack and Op Sindoor made it worse.

Read this thread to understand how Greed, Power and Religion making Pakistan explode👇Image
Image
Pakistan is breaking from within.

Economic collapse, militant violence, and political greed have torn apart what once held it together.

Religion no longer unites, the army no longer commands respect, and foreign powers are pulling its strings.

The fall began in 2019 when India revoked Article 370. That single act shattered Pakistan’s Kashmir dream and stripped its ideological core.

Since then, every desperate move to regain relevance has only dragged it deeper into isolation and internal decay.Image
The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 ended Pakistan’s moral claim over Kashmir.

Decades of propaganda collapsed overnight. The country that built its identity on “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” was left speechless.

Even Muslim nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia chose trade with India over solidarity with Pakistan.

That humiliation cracked the myth that Islam alone could sustain national unity.

From that moment, Pakistan began its slow implosion. It was no longer the voice of the Muslim world, just another struggling state seeking attention in global politics.Image
Read 16 tweets

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