Thread by @AKaszon

@vonderleyen @POTUS In the following article, I would like to discuss how NATO's eastward expansion and Joe Biden's foreign policy presented the West with new challenges, and how the US intends to respond with a shift in strategy.

@vonderleyen @POTUS During the negotiations with the Soviet Union, it was stated that NATO's defense alliance did not intend to expand eastward, but this was ultimately never contractually agreed upon between the countries.

@vonderleyen @POTUS

@vonderleyen @POTUS In the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine was granted security guarantees and its sovereignty was agreed upon in return for the surrender of its nuclear weapons.

@vonderleyen @POTUS The russians made it clear to the international community that there was only one choice a sovereign Ukraine should never make, and that was either rapprochement with the West or joining NATO, because this would supposedly endanger democracy and the power structures in Russia

@vonderleyen @POTUS and lead to a military conflict.

@vonderleyen @POTUS A non-treaty-based red line that would force russia to respond. It was later agreed that each country could choose its own partners, but the Russians never assumed this could happen in Ukraine.

@vonderleyen @POTUS At the time, Mr. Putin was positive toward the West and even gave a speech in the Bundestag. At some point, the mood changed as more and more countries were admitted to NATO. He turned his attention to China and Iran.

@vonderleyen @POTUS During that time Joe Biden joked about Zbigniew Brzeziński,who warned of the formation of an axis between Russia,China,and Iran,which now poses entirely new challenges for the West and is the direct result of a foreign policy course with which the West created itself competition.

@vonderleyen @POTUS But now, Joe Biden's course is to be corrected and Russia is tried to be freed from the grip of the axis of "evil/resistance," since the only alternative to change through trade is poverty, war, and destruction.

@vonderleyen @POTUS This change through trade can only succeed if our partners respect us for our military strength, so they not get any foolish ideas, which is an old wisdom.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Mr. Trump played the ball to Mr. Putin when he temporarily halted arms deliveries, after Elon Musk threatened Ukraine to deactivate Starlink, and the US government proposed a ceasefire.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Now, more and more Russians are slowly realizing who they owe the continuation of the costly special operation, and the war is so expensive that it will inevitably lead to a sell-off of Russian natural resources.

@vonderleyen @POTUS This is where the joint projects in the Arctic come into play. Either the Russians opt for a mutually lucrative deal or start a sellout of theit natural resources to the Chinese. Russia will have to choose between the West and China, and between prosperity and poverty.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Every country has to pay a certain tribute to the hegemonic power, but one cannot claim that the West's partners have not benefited. We Germans, the Saudis, and all of them are doing very well compared to other countries that cannot sell their products at high prices in the West.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Iran will also have to make a decision.

https://x.com/AKaszon/status/1328659419295526912

@vonderleyen @POTUS The sell-off of Russian raw material reserves could be accelerated by the drill, drill, drill agenda and a little market manipulation, putting pressure on OPEC countries to produce more oil, as the Pompeo plan envisioned at the time.

https://x.com/AKaszon/status/1846031595536277772

@vonderleyen @POTUS This would reduce Russian revenues, relieve the burden on energy-intensive companies in Europe, and by purchasing oil certificates, banks and our citizens could build up a certain cushion of reserves.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Russia has already lost its partners and status as a protecting power in the course of the war and was warned in advance by the West that an invasion of Ukraine would have dire consequences for Russia.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Iran is largely alone without the help of Russia, Hezbollah,Hamas, and Assad. The countries to which Russia provided protection will seek new partners in the future. Azerbaijan and Armenia have now publicly condemned Russia. Sweden and Finland joined NATO.nzz.ch/international/…

@vonderleyen @POTUS Trade with Russia will certainly normalize after the war, and I would like to point out that we capitalized significantly more money from trade with Russia than the Russians, of which we could have invested significantly more in defense to ensure a peaceful change through trade.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Russia will not return the occupied territories and in the past there have been frequent cessions of territory, such as the Alaska Purchase by the USA in 1867 from the Russian Empire.

@vonderleyen @POTUS This has not been unusual in history if the turf could not be defended and we should set conditions in the course of a peace agreement aswell, which will eventually happens if the war is not fought to the bitter end and a North Korean solution is chosen.

@vonderleyen @POTUS These should be as follows: European raw materials should benefit the prosperity of our resource-poor European continent and the West. If territorial cessions should occur, the price for these should not be set too low,

@vonderleyen @POTUS as a lot of money will be needed for reconstruction. Raw materials from Russia, the occupied territories, and Ukraine should be sold exclusively to European countries and the West and not exported to China.

@vonderleyen @POTUS China is already grabbing African raw materials and cannot grab everything for themselves. 👇

@vonderleyen @POTUS We need the United States more than ever and we have common interests. There are some things that many of our politicians doesn´t understand. The claim that we have no interests in the Indo-Pacific is one of many excamples and i want to explain why threadreaderapp.com/thread/1885664…

@vonderleyen @POTUS We'll need Donald Trump for a number of things. For example, the construction of the pipeline from Qatar and to mediate between Mr. Erdogan and the Cypriots, so the Gas field between Turkey and Cyprus can be tapped as quickly as possible.

@vonderleyen @POTUS This would require the creation of a joint gas consortium in which both countries would have equal shares and should definitely be on the agenda.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Hopefully, the Russians will understand that the challenges posed by digitalization can only be solved multilaterally.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Many of the developers of artificial intelligence, the technocrats and drivers of digitalization are convinced that digitalization will create many new jobs, but the number of employment relationships will decline. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1917134…

@vonderleyen @POTUS All conceivable financing models for socially supporting the many people who are becoming unemployed or who are undergoing retraining require multilateral agreements, since these would cost us our competitiveness if we choose a national solution.

@vonderleyen @POTUS Regardless of whether it is a global minimum tax, a financial transaction tax or a tax on robotics. In the past, the nation state was the guarantee of prosperity and this has now changed, as the issues concerning prosperity can only be solved jointly.

@vonderleyen @POTUS A wise man once said that if politicians fail to bring peace, we will all wake up in a surveillance state, as some cybersecurity issues can only be resolved multilaterally, or will lead to total surveillance.

@vonderleyen @POTUS There are two different approaches. Either an AI searches for illegal marketplaces and child pornography on the internet and get them blocked globally by all providers, after a court case of a newly created digital international court, preventing or hindering crimes in advance

@vonderleyen @POTUS or the national approch on total surveillance of everyone on the internet, which I believe is wrong.

@vonderleyen @POTUS @threadreaderapp unroll