Dan O'Hara Profile picture
Aug 7 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The PCR positivity map is out.

National positivity has rebounded very suddenly to the highest level it's been all year.

It looks like most areas are seeing the yoyo effect this week.



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The upturn has been particularly sudden and sharp, from 5.9 to 7.26% over the last week.

We haven't seen sudden & rapid growth like this since the autumn wave last year.

12% of areas aren't reporting, so 7.26% is an underestimate.

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Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Bath are all climbing rapidly.

The outlier is Plymouth at 28.99%, on a reliable level of testing.

Further east along the south coast there's a lot of non-reporting, but Portsmouth & W Sussex are on 12/13%.

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Shropshire also tests reliably, and has shot up to 17.65%.

You can see the rebound hitting Birmingham, Leicester, Derby... but not Coventry, which is possibly benefiting from its lack of touristic magnetism.

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Manchester's the 2nd outlier on 25%, but on poor testing.

If high levels of natural immunity were actually a thing, @UKHSA, this part of the north should have superimmunity.

But Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, Doncaster, Bolton are all bouncing up yet again.

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@UKHSA Not much reporting on Tyneside, but Teesside, Durham, Cumbria, which have just been having a large wave, are seeing yet another spike.

20% in Stockton-on-Tees is higher even than the autumn wave last year.

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@UKHSA There's a lot going on this week across the map.

Please do use it to check your area and, if you're not sure what you're seeing, do ask me!

We'll have to wait to see, but that sharp upswing doesn't look like just school holidays to me.

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More from @skeuomorphology

May 8
The PCR positivity map is out, and weekly surveillance is reporting quite a large increase from 5.3 to 6%.

There's a higher level across all areas, but some are worth pointing out.



1/7 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…Image
In the north, Teeside, Tyneside, and Cumbria all look quite alarming.

Gateshead is trying to get through it by testing very little, hence is the outlier. But Sunderland's testing is good - I'd take their rate as a guideline.

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It's a similar situation across Lancashire and W Yorkshire.

Salford's testing levels are solid, and I'd take their positivity level as a guideline for all the areas not reporting, as well as the ones doing v little testing.

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Read 7 tweets
Apr 24
The PCR positivity map is out, and this week national positivity has risen to 5.2%.

With a sharply increased number of areas not reporting this week, and with very visible outbreaks elsewhere, the average is likely to have been skewed downwards.



1/9 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…Image
We're now seeing the cluster that was in Oxfordshire spread very widely and in all compass directions.

Oxon has dramatically reduced testing, but that can't hide the levels shown by normal levels of testing in surrounding counties. Gloucs. is a good example.

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A lot of you will find your area is like Milton Keynes (not reporting) or West Northants next door (no results for the last few days).

In this case you're reliant on looking at neighbours with reliable testing levels, like Central Beds.

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Read 9 tweets
Apr 17
The PCR positivity map is out.

Last week national positivity was up from 4.2 to 4.6%.

This week it's risen to 5%.

Where are the rises?



1/12 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…Image
(By the way, I'm aware that UKHSA say it's at 4.9%.

The rolling average is 4.987%.

Let's just say I now have my concerns about their maths, as well as their basic grasp of English: words like 'baseline' and 'stable'.)

2/12
Anyway.

What we see this week is a general rising tide, with clear hotspots and not-reporting-spots.

We can tell a lot from looking at the not-reporting-spots in relation to hotspots, because they're usually right next door to each other.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Apr 10
The PCR positivity map is out, reflecting a rise in national positivity from 4.2% to 4.6%.

If we compare last week's map with this week, we see that the rise isn't concentrated in one area.

Rather, the rise is more evenly spread across the country.



1/7 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…Image
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The peak outlier is Medway, but when we check the data it seems they've just decided to start reporting again, based on few tests, after nearly 3 months.

Kent is higher than the average, and you can see (of the London areas that are reporting) Lambeth and Lewisham on 12%.

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While Oxford seems to be getting on top of its recent high rates, it's spread to everywhere surrounding.

Lots of those areas are now not reporting, but we can see rising positivity in Gloucs, Worcs, Bucks, and particularly W Berks.

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Read 7 tweets
Apr 3
The PCR map is out and national positivity has risen again to 4.2%.

The number of patients in hospital with covid, which was under 1,000 for most of February, has gone above 1,200 this week.



1/9 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…Image
A good amount of the rise has been in the North-East and Yorkshire.

Beds in Durham and Darlington have risen rapidly, as in Harrogate; York has remained at its elevated level.

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There's a clear problem across this area around Leeds:

Doncaster's beds have rocketed out of nowhere

Wakefield and Rochdale report high positivity

Blackburn, Calderdale, Kirklees, Trafford, N Lincs. all dropped out of reporting.

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Read 9 tweets
Mar 13
The PCR positivity map is out for this week.

Given a plateau at 3.3% national positivity for the last week, I expected the map to correspond exactly to trusts having problems.

I wasn't prepared for just how accurate it is.



1/13 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…Image
First the good news.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Birmingham have all calmed down, with admissions dropping in all areas.

(Every week I cross-check the map data with the current hospital stats before I post.)

2/13 Image
It looks like levels are dropping in Southampton and Hampshire too.

University Hospital Southampton are starting to get a grip after a torrid 2 months, with patients down to mid-January levels.

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Read 14 tweets

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