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DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
@deepdownanlyz
Aug 28 • 13 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
India is going to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.

But EU doesn't want it to happen.

Read this thread till the end.

Did you read the news "Modi didn't answer Trump's multiple call"?

It was reported by a German media house FAZ.

Why did European media so desperately published it?

Govt sources could have leaked this "Bold Posturing of Modi" to Indian media.

Geo Politics is now a 3D Chessboard and ...Image
50% Tariff by Trump on India has started.

But along with this there are few more pieces are moving on global chessboard.

1. Trump has recently met EU , Ukraine, Putin for a peace deal
2. Modi Meeting President Putin in China
3. Ukraine President Zelensky is planning visit to India
4. European super powers are not comfortable with Ukraine war coming to stop
5. President Putin's India visit is being planned out.

If we look at...Image
... these events closely, there is a clear indication:

Trump wants Ukraine war to end quickly. But it wont happen just by Trump pursuing and putting pressure on Putin. Putin can't simply project that he went for peace because of a US President.

To make this happen, India and Modi has to be the name which Putin can highlight as mediator for the peace deal.

To make this happen, Putin's meeting with Modi in China on the sidelines of SCO meet followed by Zelensky and Putin's plan to visit India separately are lined up.

But two questions must be coming to your mind :
1. Why Trump pressuring India with Tariff?
2. Who want Peace and who doesn't?Image
I will answer 2nd question first:

Trump want war to end and EU wants war to continue.

Here is the reason:
Trump's primary reason to end the war is to get $16 trillion worth rare earth mineral extraction contract in Ukraine as well as trillion dollar reconstruction opportunity.

So he wants it to happen before end of his presidency.

As soon as war will be over sanaction over Russia will be lifted. More countries will do trade with Russia and in due course of time the currency won't be dollar as this tariff war is pushing countries for local currency trade or crypto currency trade. Again a money making opportunity for Trump's WLF crypto fund.

But EU...
... has already invested $200 bn+ in Ukraine including:
1. $45 Bn official loan
2. $100 Bn worth of economic package and other aids
3. $55 bn worth of arms, ammos and trainings

And Ukraine war has kept their economies afloat amid noise of recessions and slowdowns.

EU superpowers like France UK Germany are looking at it a high return opportunity when this war ends and Ukraine will start paying back loans and giving access to its resources to European partners.

But EU doesn't want war to end so soon because right now it will be Trump making most out of it.

For Zelensky, war is the guarantee of his presidency otherwise his elected term is over.

Here comes the major twist....Image
Since second world war to the fall of Soviet, UK France Germany Italy etc had been closest strategic military ally for US.

European powers enjoyed great comfort. Even India got under numerous sanctions, threats and so on since 1947 to 1999 from US. But India never bowed down.

India US relations started to change in 2000 when US realized the major threat is not Russia anymore but it is China and to answer that they need a strategic ally in India.

India is the only military power in the region standing up to Chinese strength.
US Prez Bill Clinton made 5 days state visit to India.

And Europe continued to lose the importance and India's continued to rise.

Later QUAD was formed with JAPAN, INDIA, AUSTRALIA to counter Chinese influence.

Cut to 2025...Image
Trump's tariff was no surprise to the world because his whole campaign was based on it.

But all experts predicted India would get most favourable deal among all given India's importance and Modi-Trump relations.

50% Tariff took the world by surprise given India is not the largest buyer.

For Trump, EU is also not the favourable group. He hates EU more than any other country or even BRICS because EU powers are blocking his way to Ukraine.

So when EU sensedImage
...that India would be playing the key role in making Putin and Zelensky talk and get this war to closure. EU is sabotaging it by hurting Trump's ego with this kind of report.

Why: Trump's fundamental working style has been Ego and Arm twisting. India didn't fall for any.

But at a crucial juncture when message passing between Modi Trump Putin would be key, hurting Trump's ego by this kind of report will further delay Russia Ukraine peace deal.

EU just wants to create more distance, delay Peace deal and try to get sympathy of US which it has lost over the period of time and so much more under Trump.Image
Now you will have 2nd question:
If India is so important for Trump to get this Ukraine thing why he is putting so much of tariff on India:

There are multiple reasons:

1. Trump's India tariff is to amuse Pakistan to get the rare earth minerals ... Image
extraction rights in Khyber Pakhtunwa region ahead of China. Asim Munir has already started displacement of locals by force.

2. It acts as great distraction at home for Trump who promised so much to MAGA crowd but nothing happening in real. No deal in Russia, no major market opening for dairy and farmers etc.

3. He wanted to create example of China but China can crash US economy in a day so India was next best option.

3. Tariff on India will make all other groups anxious of using dollar and depending on US for trade. India has one of the most efficient financial infrastructure. India can show the world how to avoid dollar for trade.

It will fastrack de-dollarization. Crypto will be the the centre of trade in coming years and ultimatingImage
Summary:

India is centre of geo political chessboard.

Trump wants access to Ukraine ASAP.

EU want war to continue for many reasons explained.

Russia-Ukraine war will come to stop with India being one of the key mediators.

EU wants to sabotage this process by creating unwanted rift and distance by hurting Trump's ego.

Meanwhile India is setting example for the world how to navigate Tariff wars and use alternate methods for trade.Image
The leak wasn’t from Govt of India but EU media’s sources in White House to create further rift between Modi and Trump
TO MAKE IT CLEAR: It wasn't Govt of India which gave byte to German media .

They got this information from their own sources and publish it to create further rift between India and US.

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More from @deepdownanlyz

DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Sep 2
Trump's Trade War is Not Chaos but a fake "Facade".

It is a design to achieve what Trump wanted since long.

Trump will come out the biggest winner from it.

It was never about Trade imbalance, tariffs etc.

It has been always about Trump.

SCO Meeting in Tianjin what has brought him closer to his goal.

Read this thread till the end and you will understand it.Image
Trump’s Trade War is not random chaos. It is a carefully staged drama.

Do you remember Trump's spat with JP Morgan CEO and Bank of American in 2018-19 he accused JP Morgan and Bank Of America of denying keeping his money?

It hurt Trump's ego same way when Obama made fun of him during a white house dinner in 2013/14.

Do you really think US's biggest strength is export?

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Trump talks about wanting a “strong dollar,” but his personal empire benefits from the opposite.

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Foreign investors also find U.S. assets cheaper when the dollar falls. Trump’s wealth is tied to real estate and debt-heavy businesses.

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Sep 1
7.8% GDP Growth, under 2% Inflation... Just "Sheer Luck"?

Answer is NO.

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these two numbers are the "naked" truth explaining how outstanding have been her policies.

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India’s economy continues to shine globally during Trump Tariff War.

For Q1 of FY 2025-26 (April–June 2025), GDP growth came in at 7.8%, the fastest in five quarters, comfortably beating market expectations.

This compares to ~6.5% in the same quarter last year, showing resilience despite global headwinds like oil price volatility and trade tensions.

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The performance reflects not just short-term demand but also years of structural reforms and fiscal strategy under PM Modi and FM Sitharaman, designed to sustain high growth while keeping inflation under control.Image
The growth story in Q1 FY 2026 is broad-based.

Services led with 9.3% expansion, fueled by IT, finance, and hospitality.

Manufacturing clocked 7.7% growth, riding on strong domestic demand and the government’s PLI schemes.

Construction too surged at 7.6%, reflecting the massive public infrastructure push. Even agriculture grew at 3.7%, despite uneven monsoons.

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Aug 27
🚨Awaited Opinion Poll of Bihar Is Here:

Read till the end to know the mood of Bihar.

Collected Sample Size: 29557
Time Frame: 43 Days- July 6th to August 18th

You will find region wise expected seat share, overall vote share and overall seat share along with reason.Image
Image
Magadh Bhojpur region:

BJP+: 28
RJD+: 40
JSP: 1
Others:0

This has been one of the major pain points of BJP+ in entire Bihar and a stronghold of RJD+.

Dalit vote is largely influenced by Communists in this region.

Low voter turnout is another factor directly helping RJD+ and indirectly damaging BJP+.

Jan Suraj is capturing on swing vote as well as young mass across the caste and religion lines.

BJP+(in a coordinated fight unlike 2020) can give a strong fight based on caste equation in favour and lesser split of vote.

Sentiment was mostly positive on ground for PM Modi as well as Tejaswi in different pockets.

Jan Suraj will do damage to both the groups on more than 13 seats.Image
North Bihar:

NDA: 46
RJD+: 25
Jan Suraj: 1
Others: 0

It has been a bastion for BJP+ recently and difficult for RJD+.

People were very positive with Modi govt.

Op Sindoor's sentiment running high.

People fear "JungleRaaj" under RJD regime.

There is huge consolidation and anti-consolidation already on ground.

Nitish Kumar's Mahadalit's consolidation is high in this region particularly flood prone region.

Vote Chori: People were not interested to hear that. Simply denied this allegation as "Circus".

Jan Suraj is appealing young Muslim voters and can hamper RJD+ chance on 6 seats and BJP+ chance on 4 seats.Image
Read 8 tweets
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Aug 24
Act East Policy of Modi: The silent shield of India from Trump Tariff war

Trump may threaten India with 50% tariffs, but this isn’t 2018 anymore.

Under Modi, India’s Act East policy and Global South leadership have rewired trade routes and capital flows.

With Japan committing ¥10 trillion ($68B), ASEAN trade booming, and new FDI streams from Singapore, Korea, and Vietnam, India has unlocked alternate engines of growth.

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If Washington turns the tariff dial up on India, New Delhi won’t just duck—it will pivot and profit.

Why?
Because a decade of Act East and India’s leadership of the Global South has rebuilt the risk map: more capital from the East, more markets in ASEAN and Australia, tighter Japan ties, and deeper South–South corridors.

That means new buyers, new factories, and new logistics to blunt US duties.

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Aug 21
"Tariff Thunderstorm" crushing Indian Economy?

Request you read till the end.

Brightest Economy of the world hit a major setback when 'friend' Trump announced 50% tariff.

Few even declared Indian economy 'Dead' and GDP to sink.

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60% of India's GDP is domestic consumption.

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Income Tax Relief Multiplier:

India's biggest strength is its own domestic market which is capturing whole world's attention.

Modi govt made a solid move to increase domestic consumption.

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IMF’s KV Subramanian estimates ₹1 lakh crore in tax cuts can multiply into ₹5 lakh crore in consumption — nearly 2.7% of GDP.

Why?Image
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Aug 19
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Opposition allege India’s 2024 mandate was stolen through “vote chori.”

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Courts refused to force ECI to upload 1.2 million Form 17Cs online mid-election—but they confirmed every candidate already gets copies.

Counting reconciles these 17Cs with round-wise totals in front of agents. Unless specific 17C mismatches are tabled, sweeping “vote theft” is just rhetoric.
Read 13 tweets

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