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DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
@deepdownanlyz
Aug 28, 2025 • 13 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
India is going to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.

But EU doesn't want it to happen.

Read this thread till the end.

Did you read the news "Modi didn't answer Trump's multiple call"?

It was reported by a German media house FAZ.

Why did European media so desperately published it?

Govt sources could have leaked this "Bold Posturing of Modi" to Indian media.

Geo Politics is now a 3D Chessboard and ...Image
50% Tariff by Trump on India has started.

But along with this there are few more pieces are moving on global chessboard.

1. Trump has recently met EU , Ukraine, Putin for a peace deal
2. Modi Meeting President Putin in China
3. Ukraine President Zelensky is planning visit to India
4. European super powers are not comfortable with Ukraine war coming to stop
5. President Putin's India visit is being planned out.

If we look at...Image
... these events closely, there is a clear indication:

Trump wants Ukraine war to end quickly. But it wont happen just by Trump pursuing and putting pressure on Putin. Putin can't simply project that he went for peace because of a US President.

To make this happen, India and Modi has to be the name which Putin can highlight as mediator for the peace deal.

To make this happen, Putin's meeting with Modi in China on the sidelines of SCO meet followed by Zelensky and Putin's plan to visit India separately are lined up.

But two questions must be coming to your mind :
1. Why Trump pressuring India with Tariff?
2. Who want Peace and who doesn't?Image
I will answer 2nd question first:

Trump want war to end and EU wants war to continue.

Here is the reason:
Trump's primary reason to end the war is to get $16 trillion worth rare earth mineral extraction contract in Ukraine as well as trillion dollar reconstruction opportunity.

So he wants it to happen before end of his presidency.

As soon as war will be over sanaction over Russia will be lifted. More countries will do trade with Russia and in due course of time the currency won't be dollar as this tariff war is pushing countries for local currency trade or crypto currency trade. Again a money making opportunity for Trump's WLF crypto fund.

But EU...
... has already invested $200 bn+ in Ukraine including:
1. $45 Bn official loan
2. $100 Bn worth of economic package and other aids
3. $55 bn worth of arms, ammos and trainings

And Ukraine war has kept their economies afloat amid noise of recessions and slowdowns.

EU superpowers like France UK Germany are looking at it a high return opportunity when this war ends and Ukraine will start paying back loans and giving access to its resources to European partners.

But EU doesn't want war to end so soon because right now it will be Trump making most out of it.

For Zelensky, war is the guarantee of his presidency otherwise his elected term is over.

Here comes the major twist....Image
Since second world war to the fall of Soviet, UK France Germany Italy etc had been closest strategic military ally for US.

European powers enjoyed great comfort. Even India got under numerous sanctions, threats and so on since 1947 to 1999 from US. But India never bowed down.

India US relations started to change in 2000 when US realized the major threat is not Russia anymore but it is China and to answer that they need a strategic ally in India.

India is the only military power in the region standing up to Chinese strength.
US Prez Bill Clinton made 5 days state visit to India.

And Europe continued to lose the importance and India's continued to rise.

Later QUAD was formed with JAPAN, INDIA, AUSTRALIA to counter Chinese influence.

Cut to 2025...Image
Trump's tariff was no surprise to the world because his whole campaign was based on it.

But all experts predicted India would get most favourable deal among all given India's importance and Modi-Trump relations.

50% Tariff took the world by surprise given India is not the largest buyer.

For Trump, EU is also not the favourable group. He hates EU more than any other country or even BRICS because EU powers are blocking his way to Ukraine.

So when EU sensedImage
...that India would be playing the key role in making Putin and Zelensky talk and get this war to closure. EU is sabotaging it by hurting Trump's ego with this kind of report.

Why: Trump's fundamental working style has been Ego and Arm twisting. India didn't fall for any.

But at a crucial juncture when message passing between Modi Trump Putin would be key, hurting Trump's ego by this kind of report will further delay Russia Ukraine peace deal.

EU just wants to create more distance, delay Peace deal and try to get sympathy of US which it has lost over the period of time and so much more under Trump.Image
Now you will have 2nd question:
If India is so important for Trump to get this Ukraine thing why he is putting so much of tariff on India:

There are multiple reasons:

1. Trump's India tariff is to amuse Pakistan to get the rare earth minerals ... Image
extraction rights in Khyber Pakhtunwa region ahead of China. Asim Munir has already started displacement of locals by force.

2. It acts as great distraction at home for Trump who promised so much to MAGA crowd but nothing happening in real. No deal in Russia, no major market opening for dairy and farmers etc.

3. He wanted to create example of China but China can crash US economy in a day so India was next best option.

3. Tariff on India will make all other groups anxious of using dollar and depending on US for trade. India has one of the most efficient financial infrastructure. India can show the world how to avoid dollar for trade.

It will fastrack de-dollarization. Crypto will be the the centre of trade in coming years and ultimatingImage
Summary:

India is centre of geo political chessboard.

Trump wants access to Ukraine ASAP.

EU want war to continue for many reasons explained.

Russia-Ukraine war will come to stop with India being one of the key mediators.

EU wants to sabotage this process by creating unwanted rift and distance by hurting Trump's ego.

Meanwhile India is setting example for the world how to navigate Tariff wars and use alternate methods for trade.Image
The leak wasn’t from Govt of India but EU media’s sources in White House to create further rift between Modi and Trump
TO MAKE IT CLEAR: It wasn't Govt of India which gave byte to German media .

They got this information from their own sources and publish it to create further rift between India and US.

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More from @deepdownanlyz

DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Dec 16, 2025
Tariffs were supposed to kill India’s exports.

The economy was declared “dead”.

Trump raised duties.

Raghuram Rajan said Pakistan played it smart and got the better deal.
Reality check:

After 8.2% GDP growth for last quarter, India surpassed all predictions with its exports in November.

India’s exports jumped 19% to $38.13B in November. Exports to the US surged 22.6% YoY and 10% MoM.

Pakistan’s exports to the US fell ~15% in the same month.

Turns out noise does not move trade. Strategy does.

Thread. 👇Image
Image
November 2025 changed the debate. Merchandise exports jumped 19% YoY to $38.13B, and total exports (goods + services) hit $73.99B.

India’s export growth was not narrow. It was broad-based.

Major drivers in November 2025:
• Engineering goods +23.76%
• Electronic goods +38.96%
• Gems and jewellery +27.80%
• Drugs and pharmaceuticals +20.91%
• Petroleum products +11.65%

This matters because many of these sectors are either higher value or less tariff-sensitive.

The merchandise trade deficit slumped from a record ~$41.7B in October to $24.53B in November — far better than market estimates.

India’s exports to the U.S. rose 22.6% in November to $6.98 billion, which is even higher than its exports of $6.31 billion in the prior month.

India’s exports to the U.S. were down 8.6% in October and 11.9% in September.

India’s exports of goods and services for November were up 15.52% at $73.99 billion.

Those are not small moves: they show exports rose while imports eased, tightening external balances in one month.Image
Image
US TRADE: REBOUND DESPITE HIGH TARIFFS

India’s merchandise goods trade deficit, which had touched a record high of roughly $41.7 billion in October, shrank to $24.5 billion in November, beating a Reuters poll estimate of $32 billion.

Even with US duties increased (extra 25% in Aug, taking some lines to ~50%), exports to the US rose ~22.6% in November to ~$6.98B, reversing falls in September-October.

That rebound came from shifting product mix and higher-value shipments rather than volume-led commodity pushes. In short: tariffs raised costs, but exporters changed what and how they sold.Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Dec 8, 2025
IndiGo Chaos was planned well in advance in May 2025.

It was designed to bring Govt to its toes.

DGCA and Civil Aviation were never the target of this chaos.

Air India crash was the starting point.

It is part of a complicated geo politcal battle.

Read this till the end.Image
Turkish connection:

IndiGo codeshares to 40+ European/US points via Turkish; reciprocal for Turkish on Indian routes.

Turkish airline is the major partner.

The major shareholder of Turkish Airlines is the Türkiye Wealth Fund (Turkish Wealth Fund), which holds approximately 49.12% of the company's shares.

This fund's chairman is President Erdogan.

Turkey has been the biggest logistical and political supporter of Pakistan during Op Sindoor.

Along with Pakistan Turkey also lost credibility of its drones and business due to India cancelling contracts for Turkish companies and Indians bycotting Turkey in different forms.

Before Air India crash on June 12, explosives...Image
were found on Turkish Airlines flight surprise check in India a week prior to deadly crash.

Remember India suspended contracts of Celebi Airport Services India Private Limited. Erdogan's duaghter is a major share holder there.

After the deadly crash there were reports of Air India facing trouble, emergency landing and so on.

It created mistrust among people and passengers prefered IndiGo more.

Now comes the second twist in the tail.

Is Turkey the one behind all this? Answer is yes but not alone.

It is again just a front to do the execution.

Remember....Image
Read 7 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Nov 10, 2025
Something is not adding up.

Large scale GPS spoofing reporting coupled of days back.

ISI operatives arrested in Gujarat.

Now tons of explosives found with doctors in Faridabad.

What if the GPS “spoofing” around Delhi Airport last week wasn’t just a random tech glitch… but part of a larger counterintelligence game?Image
Image
The timing is too sharp to ignore because:
1. Visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu
2. Visit of Russian President Putin in December.
3. Preceded by Series of NOTAMs across India
4. Now back to back arrests and 2900KG explosive

In recent days, Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), Delhi’s busiest hub, saw an unusual spike in navigation disturbances. Articulated in news reports: fake GPS signals — a phenomenon called “spoofing” — misled aircraft position systems within roughly 60 nautical miles of the airport.

At the same time, the main runway’s Instrument Landing System (ILS) had been temporarily withdrawn for upgrading to Category III status — meaning aircraft were more reliant than usual on satellite-based navigation.

Put together: a scenario where normal defences were weaker — and something tested India’s air-domain resilience.Image
What exactly was going wrong? Spoofing differs from jamming: instead of blocking signals, fake GPS transmissions make receivers believe they are somewhere they aren’t.

At IGIA, while ILS was offline for upgrade, aircraft were relying on RNP (Required Navigation Performance) which depends on GPS. Once GPS signals started getting manipulated up to 60 nm out, authorities flagged the risk. The gap between ground-aids and satellite-aids became a vulnerability — one that apparently adversaries or non-state actors tested.

There are many possibilities of what's going on behind the scene:Image
Read 6 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Nov 7, 2025
Alarm bells at Delhi Airport.🚨

Something unusual happening since last few days.

400 flights were ground for 2 hours.

Is "failed attempt" duringSCO summit on Modi still in action?

In the past few days, pilots arriving into IGI have reported odd GNSS behaviour: their navigation systems showing incorrect positions, altitudes or paths — clear signs of GPS spoofing, where fake satellite signals are beamed to confuse aircraft.

This is far more serious than a routine tech glitch: when approach paths are compromised, aircraft must divert or go manual...Image
Image
increasing workload for controllers, raising safety risk.

Add to this that IGI already had a partially limited landing system (ILS upgrade ongoing) and an easterly wind change forcing arrivals from the Dwarka side, and you get a perfect storm.

The message: the skies over India’s busiest airport just got a lot more hazardous not just from weather, but from cyber-physical interference.

WAS A VVIP THE TARGET — OR WAS IT A MESSAGE?
Delhi was handling heavy VVIP and election-related air movements (Bihar) with choppers, charters, and security flights crisscrossing the same corridors.

Combine that with a sudden string of spoof events and an ATC messaging failure that delayed hundreds of flights, and you have the anatomy of an intimidation campaign: create fear, force movement, paralyze decision-making.

We have every right to ask whether this was a message aimed at our leadership — recall the recent reporting and heated speculation around assassination plots and suspicious foreign footprints at international forums.

Allegations exist in the public domain; investigators must follow these leads openly, not petulantly dismiss them. Treat this as potential state-level coercion by hostile proxies until proven otherwise.

THE NEW BATTLEFIELD IS SIGNALS — NOT JUST STRIPES.Image
Read 4 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Oct 15, 2025
Pakistan's Afghanistan Crisis: What Orchestrated it?

To eliminate TTP chief?

Absolutely NOT.

Then?

There are multiple factors including Op Sindoor.

This conflict can go longer than what it seems.

Read this thread till the end.Image
Image
Pakistan’s cross-border strikes into Afghanistan can't be understood simply as counterterrorism.

Domestically, Islamabad is facing escalating unrest among the Baloch and Pashtun populations protests, demands for rights, accusations of enforced disappearances, economic neglect.

The army’s image, once almost uncontested, is under pressure as the primary “institution” holding the country together.

By projecting external threats, the civil-military complex seeks to reassert its indispensability.

The Afghan front ....Image
...becomes the dramatic stage for showing “we are protecting the nation,” even as discontent grows at home in structurally marginalized regions.

There is also a palpable desire in Pakistani leadership to demonstrate loyalty to Washington.

The talk of reclaiming Bagram Airbase by the US under Trump has drawn regional concern. By engaging in high-stakes military operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan appears to be indicating that it is still a willing security partner, able to act militarily, share intelligence, and tighten cross-border pressure.

In doing so, Islamabad may hope for political, financial, intelligence or diplomatic rewards from the US. The base issue is symbolic of US strategic priorities in South Asia and China’s growing influence.Image
Read 12 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Oct 12, 2025
Pakistan is about to serve POJK on platter to India.

Modi-Shah-Doval had pressed panic button back in 2019.
Dont forget Doval's work in China.

Pahalgam Attack and Op Sindoor made it worse.

Read this thread to understand how Greed, Power and Religion making Pakistan explode👇Image
Image
Pakistan is breaking from within.

Economic collapse, militant violence, and political greed have torn apart what once held it together.

Religion no longer unites, the army no longer commands respect, and foreign powers are pulling its strings.

The fall began in 2019 when India revoked Article 370. That single act shattered Pakistan’s Kashmir dream and stripped its ideological core.

Since then, every desperate move to regain relevance has only dragged it deeper into isolation and internal decay.Image
The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 ended Pakistan’s moral claim over Kashmir.

Decades of propaganda collapsed overnight. The country that built its identity on “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” was left speechless.

Even Muslim nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia chose trade with India over solidarity with Pakistan.

That humiliation cracked the myth that Islam alone could sustain national unity.

From that moment, Pakistan began its slow implosion. It was no longer the voice of the Muslim world, just another struggling state seeking attention in global politics.Image
Read 16 tweets

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