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DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
@deepdownanlyz
Aug 28 • 13 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
India is going to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.

But EU doesn't want it to happen.

Read this thread till the end.

Did you read the news "Modi didn't answer Trump's multiple call"?

It was reported by a German media house FAZ.

Why did European media so desperately published it?

Govt sources could have leaked this "Bold Posturing of Modi" to Indian media.

Geo Politics is now a 3D Chessboard and ...Image
50% Tariff by Trump on India has started.

But along with this there are few more pieces are moving on global chessboard.

1. Trump has recently met EU , Ukraine, Putin for a peace deal
2. Modi Meeting President Putin in China
3. Ukraine President Zelensky is planning visit to India
4. European super powers are not comfortable with Ukraine war coming to stop
5. President Putin's India visit is being planned out.

If we look at...Image
... these events closely, there is a clear indication:

Trump wants Ukraine war to end quickly. But it wont happen just by Trump pursuing and putting pressure on Putin. Putin can't simply project that he went for peace because of a US President.

To make this happen, India and Modi has to be the name which Putin can highlight as mediator for the peace deal.

To make this happen, Putin's meeting with Modi in China on the sidelines of SCO meet followed by Zelensky and Putin's plan to visit India separately are lined up.

But two questions must be coming to your mind :
1. Why Trump pressuring India with Tariff?
2. Who want Peace and who doesn't?Image
I will answer 2nd question first:

Trump want war to end and EU wants war to continue.

Here is the reason:
Trump's primary reason to end the war is to get $16 trillion worth rare earth mineral extraction contract in Ukraine as well as trillion dollar reconstruction opportunity.

So he wants it to happen before end of his presidency.

As soon as war will be over sanaction over Russia will be lifted. More countries will do trade with Russia and in due course of time the currency won't be dollar as this tariff war is pushing countries for local currency trade or crypto currency trade. Again a money making opportunity for Trump's WLF crypto fund.

But EU...
... has already invested $200 bn+ in Ukraine including:
1. $45 Bn official loan
2. $100 Bn worth of economic package and other aids
3. $55 bn worth of arms, ammos and trainings

And Ukraine war has kept their economies afloat amid noise of recessions and slowdowns.

EU superpowers like France UK Germany are looking at it a high return opportunity when this war ends and Ukraine will start paying back loans and giving access to its resources to European partners.

But EU doesn't want war to end so soon because right now it will be Trump making most out of it.

For Zelensky, war is the guarantee of his presidency otherwise his elected term is over.

Here comes the major twist....Image
Since second world war to the fall of Soviet, UK France Germany Italy etc had been closest strategic military ally for US.

European powers enjoyed great comfort. Even India got under numerous sanctions, threats and so on since 1947 to 1999 from US. But India never bowed down.

India US relations started to change in 2000 when US realized the major threat is not Russia anymore but it is China and to answer that they need a strategic ally in India.

India is the only military power in the region standing up to Chinese strength.
US Prez Bill Clinton made 5 days state visit to India.

And Europe continued to lose the importance and India's continued to rise.

Later QUAD was formed with JAPAN, INDIA, AUSTRALIA to counter Chinese influence.

Cut to 2025...Image
Trump's tariff was no surprise to the world because his whole campaign was based on it.

But all experts predicted India would get most favourable deal among all given India's importance and Modi-Trump relations.

50% Tariff took the world by surprise given India is not the largest buyer.

For Trump, EU is also not the favourable group. He hates EU more than any other country or even BRICS because EU powers are blocking his way to Ukraine.

So when EU sensedImage
...that India would be playing the key role in making Putin and Zelensky talk and get this war to closure. EU is sabotaging it by hurting Trump's ego with this kind of report.

Why: Trump's fundamental working style has been Ego and Arm twisting. India didn't fall for any.

But at a crucial juncture when message passing between Modi Trump Putin would be key, hurting Trump's ego by this kind of report will further delay Russia Ukraine peace deal.

EU just wants to create more distance, delay Peace deal and try to get sympathy of US which it has lost over the period of time and so much more under Trump.Image
Now you will have 2nd question:
If India is so important for Trump to get this Ukraine thing why he is putting so much of tariff on India:

There are multiple reasons:

1. Trump's India tariff is to amuse Pakistan to get the rare earth minerals ... Image
extraction rights in Khyber Pakhtunwa region ahead of China. Asim Munir has already started displacement of locals by force.

2. It acts as great distraction at home for Trump who promised so much to MAGA crowd but nothing happening in real. No deal in Russia, no major market opening for dairy and farmers etc.

3. He wanted to create example of China but China can crash US economy in a day so India was next best option.

3. Tariff on India will make all other groups anxious of using dollar and depending on US for trade. India has one of the most efficient financial infrastructure. India can show the world how to avoid dollar for trade.

It will fastrack de-dollarization. Crypto will be the the centre of trade in coming years and ultimatingImage
Summary:

India is centre of geo political chessboard.

Trump wants access to Ukraine ASAP.

EU want war to continue for many reasons explained.

Russia-Ukraine war will come to stop with India being one of the key mediators.

EU wants to sabotage this process by creating unwanted rift and distance by hurting Trump's ego.

Meanwhile India is setting example for the world how to navigate Tariff wars and use alternate methods for trade.Image
The leak wasn’t from Govt of India but EU media’s sources in White House to create further rift between Modi and Trump
TO MAKE IT CLEAR: It wasn't Govt of India which gave byte to German media .

They got this information from their own sources and publish it to create further rift between India and US.

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More from @deepdownanlyz

DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Aug 27
🚨Awaited Opinion Poll of Bihar Is Here:

Read till the end to know the mood of Bihar.

Collected Sample Size: 29557
Time Frame: 43 Days- July 6th to August 18th

You will find region wise expected seat share, overall vote share and overall seat share along with reason.Image
Image
Magadh Bhojpur region:

BJP+: 28
RJD+: 40
JSP: 1
Others:0

This has been one of the major pain points of BJP+ in entire Bihar and a stronghold of RJD+.

Dalit vote is largely influenced by Communists in this region.

Low voter turnout is another factor directly helping RJD+ and indirectly damaging BJP+.

Jan Suraj is capturing on swing vote as well as young mass across the caste and religion lines.

BJP+(in a coordinated fight unlike 2020) can give a strong fight based on caste equation in favour and lesser split of vote.

Sentiment was mostly positive on ground for PM Modi as well as Tejaswi in different pockets.

Jan Suraj will do damage to both the groups on more than 13 seats.Image
North Bihar:

NDA: 46
RJD+: 25
Jan Suraj: 1
Others: 0

It has been a bastion for BJP+ recently and difficult for RJD+.

People were very positive with Modi govt.

Op Sindoor's sentiment running high.

People fear "JungleRaaj" under RJD regime.

There is huge consolidation and anti-consolidation already on ground.

Nitish Kumar's Mahadalit's consolidation is high in this region particularly flood prone region.

Vote Chori: People were not interested to hear that. Simply denied this allegation as "Circus".

Jan Suraj is appealing young Muslim voters and can hamper RJD+ chance on 6 seats and BJP+ chance on 4 seats.Image
Read 8 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Aug 24
Act East Policy of Modi: The silent shield of India from Trump Tariff war

Trump may threaten India with 50% tariffs, but this isn’t 2018 anymore.

Under Modi, India’s Act East policy and Global South leadership have rewired trade routes and capital flows.

With Japan committing ¥10 trillion ($68B), ASEAN trade booming, and new FDI streams from Singapore, Korea, and Vietnam, India has unlocked alternate engines of growth.

Instead of being cornered, India is positioned to turn tariff wars into a strategic advantage.
Read:Image
If Washington turns the tariff dial up on India, New Delhi won’t just duck—it will pivot and profit.

Why?
Because a decade of Act East and India’s leadership of the Global South has rebuilt the risk map: more capital from the East, more markets in ASEAN and Australia, tighter Japan ties, and deeper South–South corridors.

That means new buyers, new factories, and new logistics to blunt US duties.

With ASEAN trade at $121B (FY24), and Japan preparing a ¥10 trillion (~$68B) decade-long investment plan, India’s eastward shock absorbers are already installed—and revving.Image
Tariff threat, real numbers:

The tariff threat isn’t theoretical: the US has already moved on broad hikes affecting key import lines; industry lobbies at home are scrambling for carve-outs as prices jump.

Indian categories like shrimp, leather, and select engineering goods are in the blast zone.

This is exactly where diversification matters. If punitive rates bite in the US, India is looking to reroute export effort toward ASEAN (11% of India’s global trade, $121B FY24), Australia (ECTA driving double-digit export growth), and Japan (demand + capital).

The strategy is to replace vulnerable demand before it disappears.
Read 11 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Aug 21
"Tariff Thunderstorm" crushing Indian Economy?

Request you read till the end.

Brightest Economy of the world hit a major setback when 'friend' Trump announced 50% tariff.

Few even declared Indian economy 'Dead' and GDP to sink.

But here’s the twist:

60% of India's GDP is domestic consumption.

And Modi govt have already fired 3 economic cannons:Image
Image
1. Massive income tax relief much before Trump Tariff
2. GST overhaul,
3. Low-inflation fueled credit expansion.

Instead of a slowdown, India might roar ahead with demand-led growth. This isn’t coincidence—it’s a pre-emptive strategy.

For India, the U.S. is a top export market (~$77 bn in 2024). Higher tariffs will hurt textiles, IT, pharma & engineering goods.

Through income tax reforms, GST overhaul, inflation control, and smart trade diversification, India is pivoting from export dependency to domestic demand strength.

Let’s decode how 1 lakh crore tax relief can become 5 lakh crore in consumption, GST rationalisation frees supply chains, CPI-led repo cuts boost credit, and Russia offsets U.S. trade loss.Image
Income Tax Relief Multiplier:

India's biggest strength is its own domestic market which is capturing whole world's attention.

Modi govt made a solid move to increase domestic consumption.

The 2025 Budget’s big bang: Income Tax-free up to ₹12 lakh. This is not just middle-class relief — it’s a demand bomb.

IMF’s KV Subramanian estimates ₹1 lakh crore in tax cuts can multiply into ₹5 lakh crore in consumption — nearly 2.7% of GDP.

Why?Image
Read 13 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Aug 19
“Vote Chori” vs Verified Reality: Why this claim doesn't hold ground?

Opposition allege India’s 2024 mandate was stolen through “vote chori.”

But India’s election system leaves a paper trail (Form 17C, VVPAT slips), open counting, randomization safeguards, and legal verification routes.

Claims about “house number 0” voters, inflated turnout, or close margins collapse when tested against ECI rules, Supreme Court judgments, and hard data.

This thread breaks down—point by point—why the allegations don’t withstand scrutiny and what the actual evidence shows.Image
1) “Vote chori” claims: let’s begin with turnout math

The Election Commission computes turnout as EVM votes + postal ballots ÷ total electors.

On polling day, provisional % excludes many postals; final numbers arrive later after State CEOs certify them. That’s why you saw initial polling-station turnout of 65.79% in LS-2024, which increased when postals were added.

To counter rumor, ECI even published absolute voter counts phase-wise mid-election and explained this in a formal note.

This is standard practice since 1961 rules—not any manipulation. Claiming “mystery numbers” = theft is a misreading of procedure, not evidence of fraud.Image
2) Booth truth exists in black & white: Form 17C

Every polling station prepares Form 17C on poll day—signed by the Presiding Officer and handed to all agents.

This carbon copy records exact votes polled at that booth, and agents take it away that day. If numbers changed magically, opposition candidates already have the proof to expose mismatches.

Courts refused to force ECI to upload 1.2 million Form 17Cs online mid-election—but they confirmed every candidate already gets copies.

Counting reconciles these 17Cs with round-wise totals in front of agents. Unless specific 17C mismatches are tabled, sweeping “vote theft” is just rhetoric.
Read 13 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Aug 18
The Next Gulf War is Loading.

India has to be on alert mode.

It is not Iraq or Kuwait. It is going to be Pakistan.

It is not for Oil but for Rare Earth Minerals.

Read this thread till the end.Image
In 1990, the world went to war not just because Iraq invaded Kuwait, but because the lifeline of global power—oil—was at stake.

Superpowers clashed, alliances shifted, and a regional dispute turned into a global confrontation.

Today, the stage is being set again. But this time the battlefield isn’t the Persian Gulf—it’s Pakistan. And the prize isn’t oil—it’s rare earth elements (REEs), the hidden backbone of EVs, wind turbines, chips, and modern defense systems. What oil was in the 20th century, REEs will be in the 21st—and Pakistan sits right at the fault line.Image
Oil defined power in the 20th century; rare earths will define power in the 21st. China controls ~60% of mining and ~90% of refining, giving Beijing unrivaled leverage over the “magnets” that drive EV motors, fighter jets, and wind farms.

The West, shaken by its oil dependence in the 1970s and watching China’s stranglehold today, is desperate to diversify.

That’s where Pakistan comes in—home to copper-gold giants like Reko Diq and geological whispers of rare earths in the Peshawar Alkaline Province and coastal sands. It may not be Saudi Arabia of REEs yet—but the scramble has begun.Image
Read 14 tweets
DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Aug 17
Do you know the common thread between:

1. Trump's desperation to end the Russia-Ukraine War.

2. Trump's unexpected endorsement of Terror State Pakistan

3. Sudden Tariff Pressure on India

Answer is not MAGA, not Dollar but $21 Trillion retirement dream of Trump.

Read👇Image
Trump promised to stop war between Russia-Ukraine within 24 hrs of his inauguration.

It was dramatic shift from previous administration which used to provide funds to Ukraine to buy weapons and fight war.

Why:
World economy is going through dramatic transformation with increased adoption of Electric Vehicles, Artificial intelligence, defence advancements, green energy etc.

It means..Image
...ever increasing demand of rare earth elements.

China currently supplies 70%+ rare earth elements.

North America is the biggest market estimated at $6.69 billion in 2024 and expected to grow at 12%+ CAGR in between 2024-2032.

Here comes the opportunity for Trump and his new lobby:Image
Image
Read 15 tweets

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