Thread by @SteB777

I agree with @jasonhickel's view of capitalism, driving the climate crisis etc. But after a watching a Novara media interview with him, just over a week ago, I have serious reservations about his understanding of the climate and ecological crisis, and its implications.
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https://twitter.com/jasonhickel/status/1963911110030991658

What I say here, is in the manner of positive criticism i.e. in the hope of that criticism leading to a better understanding.

I was very concerned about some of the things @jasonhickel said in this interview.

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For instance @jasonhickel cited what @KevinClimate said about 3C of warming, making civilization as we know it almost impossible. But then went on to say this wouldn't mean mass deaths (not derived from Kevin) and seemed to think, this would only impact some regions.
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Likewise, he cited @IPCC_CH estimates and projections, without apparently any caveats, that many experts feel these are far too conservative, and underestimate many hazards (not risks).
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Overall, I was left with the impression, that @jasonhickel doesn't see there being major impacts, until late in the 21st Century.

This left me very concerned that Jason doesn't fully understand the implications of civilization collapse, and what could lead to it.
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For those who understand the climate and ecological crisis, primarily through the lens of academic studies, and not understanding the joined up implications of the science, this is understandable, as I will explain in the next few tweets.
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Previously, when people such as @RogerHallamCS21 have mentioned the possibility of billions dying due to climate impacts, they have been attacked, on the grounds, that there is no scientific evidence to support this concern. There is a lack of scientific evidence, as follows.
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There is no scientific evidence to support the contention that billions of people could die, if civilization collapsed, for the simple reason is that it has never been studied or modelled. So, there's also no scientific evidence to contradict the contention of mass deaths.
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Those familiar with my commentary, will know that for a very long time, I have asking and challenging people, including academics, to point me to in depth studies of the potential for climate related civilization collapse, and what the impacts would be.
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I was quite open to the possibility, that somehow I had overlooked some sort of comprehensive research, but so far no one has been able to point me in the direction of such research. This peer reviewed paper states, it has never been studied.

10/pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

This seems to confirm my long term view, that we are totally flying blind i.e. no one has ever seriously studied, how vulnerable our civilization is, to system collapse, resulting from climate and ecological impacts, and what the consequences would be.
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In other words, it all comes down to the personal insight of individuals, which is not scientific, no matter what their qualifications are, and basically their personal faith. A lot seem to have what I consider to be unqualified faith in technology, of a religious kind.
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I don't claim to have any crystal ball here, but I have done a massive amount of reading, studying science, ecology, and direct observation of how the system works, in the last 50+ years.
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The most common response I have had in personal conversation and dialogue, including with senior scientists, is, "I'd never thought about that". As I have considered things, most supposed experts, have never thought about that, doesn't inspire my confidence in their views.
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My insights are thus. We can only feed 8 billion people, through an unbelievable complex web of supply chains, supported by an organized economy, trade relations i.e. our civilizations. That if it collapsed, this infrastructure would no longer exist.
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All around the world, there are now massive cities of tens of millions of people, with no means to feed and sustain themselves, if the supply lines that keep them alive broke down. If this happened, there would be societal chaos, which would be viciously circular.
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What I mean by that, is that if people panicked about where to get food, and basic supplies from, they would lose all faith in their governments, and it would be total chaos which would make the situation even worse, viciously circular, and self-amplifying.
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Prior to the industrial and farming revolution, the global population was well under a billion people, and had taken 1000 years to double. This is an indicator of the true ecological carrying capacity of the Earth, without the organized economy, which now exists.
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Modern agriculture itself relies on a complex supply chain, for fuel, agrochemicals, machinery, feedstuffs, electricity, and it is very difficult to see how it could function, if those complex supply chains were suddenly disrupted. Skills have been lost, to farm without this.
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Past civilization collapses didn't lead to mass starvation, because the vast majority of the population, were some type of peasant farmers, supported by local economies. Our society, lacks the ability to self-sustain, if the infrastructure fails.
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The only glue that currently hold our societies together, is the pursuit of economic growth, and the accumulation of personal wealth. It's very difficult to see how it would put itself back together, if it imploded.
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In the meantime, there is a massive population, which needs a constant supply of food, water and other essentials. If these are not restored, people will rapidly start to starve, and there would be panic and chaos, which would be viciously circular, in preventing restoration.
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This is what makes me question the wisdom of academics who state that climate induced collapse, would not lead to mass deaths. This seems to be an article of faith, not derived from evidence and rigorous thinking.
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Therefore, I ask @jasonhickel where his certainty that 3C of warming, wouldn't lead to mass deaths, comes from? Aside from, I'm a clever academic, and I know things like this. How does he know it, what is his reasoning?
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My overall concern, indeed alarm, about the climate and ecological crisis, is the lack of alarm about the potential for catastrophe, because of the apparent faith based view, that it will just never happen. Those who have this view, don't seem to have thought about it.
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I must point out, that I'm not a doomer. I am saying we must radically change our system, to prevent civilization collapse, by changing from being a competitive society, to a cooperative society. What I say is only inevitable if we try to continue to pursue business as usual.
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