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Sep 12, 2025 12 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Operation Sindoor 2.0 Loading....

It won't be a military action.

It won't be about POJK.

Neither it will be a reactive measure.

Read this thread till the end as there many connecting dots to understand.

This time, it will be of the people, by the people, for the.. Image
.... people of Pakistan.

Asim Munir is heading toward's KP Oli's fate but in even worst possible way.

I had predicted long back that US eyeing Pakistan's mineral reserve that's why Trump claimed credit for ceasefire to Asim Munir's face.

That came true when Pakistan signed $500 Mn deal.

Munir doesn't know he has signed warrant of his ouster.

How?

Munir's Pakistan is sitting on time bomb made of:

1. Mobilised political base around Imran Khan,
2. Freedom Movement in peripheries (Balochistan, KPK) fueled by Pakistani Army's actions,
...Image
...3. Anger of Pakistanis from inflation, flood, surveillance
4. Balancing act between US-China over minerals and security.
5. Corruption and royal life style of Pakistani Generals and ministers.

Taken together at scale of Pakistani population can cause much worse situation than Nepal.

Imran Khan’s 2022 ouster still defines the landscape. Removed via no-confidence, he didn’t vanish, he radicalised his base.

He was removed by US and powerful military setup when he started to make his own decisions and aligning with Russia.

Time and again there have been news of Imran Khan getting assaulted in jail have radicalised his support base.

He has become open critique of Asim Munir than his political rival.

Mass rallies, arrests, and violent clashes kept PTI supporters in the headlines through 2024–25.

His followers are organised, digitally ....Image
.... savvy, and waiting for an opportunity.

Every police crackdown risks re-igniting nationwide protests. Like Oli in Nepal, who underestimated the power of youth-led mobilisation, Munir faces a base that refuses to back down.

The difference? Pakistan’s base is much larger, angrier, and more experienced in sustained agitation.

There is another big fuel to mass fire.

Wasn't it strange that so many intimate videos were leaked online in Pakistan?

Amnesty reports show Pakistan expanding surveillance: mass phone tapping, internet restrictions, spyware-level monitoring to clamp down dissent of mass after Imran Khan was removed.

Citizens whisper about being watched even in private chats...Image
...But here’s the paradox: fear breeds anger, not silence.

Nepal’s youth revolted when Oli tried clamping down on social media they saw it as elite control over their voice.

Pakistan’s young, wired population is even less forgiving.

Every snooping scandal chips away at trust. Munir’s challenge is not just protesters in the streets , it’s millions online, refusing to be gagged.

Imran Khan is going to cash in on this report and make people aware of what Pakistani establishment is upto.

If you are wondering why a financially struggling state is investing so much in surveillance, you must...Image
... understand the long term plan to control mass as per the need of military establishments.

But things are not as much in control as Pakistan wanted.

Zoom out to the peripheries.

Pakistan's lust and greed of resources has put Balochistan and KPK on fire.

Balochistan burns with insurgency and freedom movements, as fighters hit Pakistani convoys and Chinese engineers.

US in desperation declared BLA as terrorist organization. It has further detoriated the situation.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is also showing strong signs of dissent towards military actions of Pakistan.

It remains a sanctuary for Taliban-linked networks are more culturally connected KPK than Pakistan.

The state’s answer? Crackdowns, checkpoints, and surveillance.

But every raid deepens...Image
....resentment. Locals see soldiers not as protectors but occupiers. Add foreign workers and mega-projects, and the anger compounds.

This isn’t just “law and order.” It’s a slow erosion of legitimacy. Oli’s fall was sudden. Pakistan’s unrest is different: long-simmering, structural, and waiting for one big shock to tip it over.

Now layer in the resource race. Pakistan’s vast reserves of rare earths have suddenly made it a darling for Washington.

New MoUs and investments promise dollars but also dilemmas. China, Pakistan’s old patron, has already sunk billions into CPEC and won’t tolerate second place.

The minerals sit in volatile provinces, where locals feel excluded from the spoils.

It’s a geopolitical tug-of-war played ...Image
...on Pakistani soil.

Munir is walking the same tightrope between Beijing & Washington.

There is split of loyalty between Pakistani Military and Political leadership.

Munir has sidelined with Trump and betting to win big by getting Trump REE extraction rights and WLF crypto deal while political leadership wants to continue relations with CCP.

There have been multiple visits of Munir, Sharif to China recently Zardari made visit to but things don't look stable.

China has one strong tool to pull off strings ie its debt trap. Pakistan is well deep into it.

Here lies the hardest balance: Washington or Beijing? China has poured billions into CPEC and now demands better security for its citizens.

The U.S. arrives fresh, withImage
...shiny mineral deals and strategic interest. Both want priority. Pakistan can’t satisfy both. Reports suggest the army leans West, while civilian leadership still signals loyalty East.

This split is dangerous.
On one side there is years of investment and help on international stages, on the other side there is lot of sudden money.

Munir is now in the bind with superpowers who treat Pakistan like a chessboard square, not a partner.

Of course, nothing inflames revolt faster than empty kitchens....Image
Food inflation is hitting Pakistan harder than politics. Wheat, rice, cooking oil daily essentials have doubled for many.

Floods wiped harvests, subsidies shrank, and the rupee staggers.

For the poor, it’s survival, not ideology.

And when they turn on the TV, they see generals’ families holidaying abroad, politicians’ kids in London, and lavish estates expanding. Two worlds in one country.

Nepal’s protests had the same core: inequality and betrayal. Pakistan’s scale is bigger. Hungry crowds don’t negotiate — they erupt.
Could this all snap into an “Oli moment”? In Nepal...Image
.... it was a social media ban that tipped youth anger into mass protests, collapsing Oli’s rule overnight.

Pakistan would need a similar flashpoint: a food riot after subsidy cuts, a deadly crackdown on PTI, or a high-profile attack on foreign workers that enrages both locals and patrons. But unlike Nepal, Pakistan’s military is stronger, more entrenched.

Collapse here won’t be neat or sudden. It’s more likely to be messy, drawn-out — a grinding contest between street, insurgents, and elite power.

So What's next?
Watch five signals:
1. US China fight over regions and resources
2. Insurgent strikes on Chinese and US projects,
3. Mass PTI protests,
4. Social media blackouts,
5. and fractures among generals and political leadership.

Each one is a potential trigger.

Globally, the U.S. will guard mineral access and sea lanes, China will demand CPEC protection, Iran & Russia will look for openings.

And India will hedge its bets and make its move to ensure it has peaceful border and broken adversary.

Everyone wants something, nobody fully trusts or needs Islamabad's stabilty.

It was going pretty well with China but sudden lust of power and greed for money has brough Pakistan to major upheaval.

It is not just going to end the militarry suppression but also going to limit Pakistan to Punjab and Sindh.

That's why Op Sindoor 2.0 is not ballestic, kinetic war but an automatic sequence of events.Image

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More from @deepdownanlyz

Dec 16, 2025
Tariffs were supposed to kill India’s exports.

The economy was declared “dead”.

Trump raised duties.

Raghuram Rajan said Pakistan played it smart and got the better deal.
Reality check:

After 8.2% GDP growth for last quarter, India surpassed all predictions with its exports in November.

India’s exports jumped 19% to $38.13B in November. Exports to the US surged 22.6% YoY and 10% MoM.

Pakistan’s exports to the US fell ~15% in the same month.

Turns out noise does not move trade. Strategy does.

Thread. 👇Image
Image
November 2025 changed the debate. Merchandise exports jumped 19% YoY to $38.13B, and total exports (goods + services) hit $73.99B.

India’s export growth was not narrow. It was broad-based.

Major drivers in November 2025:
• Engineering goods +23.76%
• Electronic goods +38.96%
• Gems and jewellery +27.80%
• Drugs and pharmaceuticals +20.91%
• Petroleum products +11.65%

This matters because many of these sectors are either higher value or less tariff-sensitive.

The merchandise trade deficit slumped from a record ~$41.7B in October to $24.53B in November — far better than market estimates.

India’s exports to the U.S. rose 22.6% in November to $6.98 billion, which is even higher than its exports of $6.31 billion in the prior month.

India’s exports to the U.S. were down 8.6% in October and 11.9% in September.

India’s exports of goods and services for November were up 15.52% at $73.99 billion.

Those are not small moves: they show exports rose while imports eased, tightening external balances in one month.Image
Image
US TRADE: REBOUND DESPITE HIGH TARIFFS

India’s merchandise goods trade deficit, which had touched a record high of roughly $41.7 billion in October, shrank to $24.5 billion in November, beating a Reuters poll estimate of $32 billion.

Even with US duties increased (extra 25% in Aug, taking some lines to ~50%), exports to the US rose ~22.6% in November to ~$6.98B, reversing falls in September-October.

That rebound came from shifting product mix and higher-value shipments rather than volume-led commodity pushes. In short: tariffs raised costs, but exporters changed what and how they sold.Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8, 2025
IndiGo Chaos was planned well in advance in May 2025.

It was designed to bring Govt to its toes.

DGCA and Civil Aviation were never the target of this chaos.

Air India crash was the starting point.

It is part of a complicated geo politcal battle.

Read this till the end.Image
Turkish connection:

IndiGo codeshares to 40+ European/US points via Turkish; reciprocal for Turkish on Indian routes.

Turkish airline is the major partner.

The major shareholder of Turkish Airlines is the Türkiye Wealth Fund (Turkish Wealth Fund), which holds approximately 49.12% of the company's shares.

This fund's chairman is President Erdogan.

Turkey has been the biggest logistical and political supporter of Pakistan during Op Sindoor.

Along with Pakistan Turkey also lost credibility of its drones and business due to India cancelling contracts for Turkish companies and Indians bycotting Turkey in different forms.

Before Air India crash on June 12, explosives...Image
were found on Turkish Airlines flight surprise check in India a week prior to deadly crash.

Remember India suspended contracts of Celebi Airport Services India Private Limited. Erdogan's duaghter is a major share holder there.

After the deadly crash there were reports of Air India facing trouble, emergency landing and so on.

It created mistrust among people and passengers prefered IndiGo more.

Now comes the second twist in the tail.

Is Turkey the one behind all this? Answer is yes but not alone.

It is again just a front to do the execution.

Remember....Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10, 2025
Something is not adding up.

Large scale GPS spoofing reporting coupled of days back.

ISI operatives arrested in Gujarat.

Now tons of explosives found with doctors in Faridabad.

What if the GPS “spoofing” around Delhi Airport last week wasn’t just a random tech glitch… but part of a larger counterintelligence game?Image
Image
The timing is too sharp to ignore because:
1. Visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu
2. Visit of Russian President Putin in December.
3. Preceded by Series of NOTAMs across India
4. Now back to back arrests and 2900KG explosive

In recent days, Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), Delhi’s busiest hub, saw an unusual spike in navigation disturbances. Articulated in news reports: fake GPS signals — a phenomenon called “spoofing” — misled aircraft position systems within roughly 60 nautical miles of the airport.

At the same time, the main runway’s Instrument Landing System (ILS) had been temporarily withdrawn for upgrading to Category III status — meaning aircraft were more reliant than usual on satellite-based navigation.

Put together: a scenario where normal defences were weaker — and something tested India’s air-domain resilience.Image
What exactly was going wrong? Spoofing differs from jamming: instead of blocking signals, fake GPS transmissions make receivers believe they are somewhere they aren’t.

At IGIA, while ILS was offline for upgrade, aircraft were relying on RNP (Required Navigation Performance) which depends on GPS. Once GPS signals started getting manipulated up to 60 nm out, authorities flagged the risk. The gap between ground-aids and satellite-aids became a vulnerability — one that apparently adversaries or non-state actors tested.

There are many possibilities of what's going on behind the scene:Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 7, 2025
Alarm bells at Delhi Airport.🚨

Something unusual happening since last few days.

400 flights were ground for 2 hours.

Is "failed attempt" duringSCO summit on Modi still in action?

In the past few days, pilots arriving into IGI have reported odd GNSS behaviour: their navigation systems showing incorrect positions, altitudes or paths — clear signs of GPS spoofing, where fake satellite signals are beamed to confuse aircraft.

This is far more serious than a routine tech glitch: when approach paths are compromised, aircraft must divert or go manual...Image
Image
increasing workload for controllers, raising safety risk.

Add to this that IGI already had a partially limited landing system (ILS upgrade ongoing) and an easterly wind change forcing arrivals from the Dwarka side, and you get a perfect storm.

The message: the skies over India’s busiest airport just got a lot more hazardous not just from weather, but from cyber-physical interference.

WAS A VVIP THE TARGET — OR WAS IT A MESSAGE?
Delhi was handling heavy VVIP and election-related air movements (Bihar) with choppers, charters, and security flights crisscrossing the same corridors.

Combine that with a sudden string of spoof events and an ATC messaging failure that delayed hundreds of flights, and you have the anatomy of an intimidation campaign: create fear, force movement, paralyze decision-making.

We have every right to ask whether this was a message aimed at our leadership — recall the recent reporting and heated speculation around assassination plots and suspicious foreign footprints at international forums.

Allegations exist in the public domain; investigators must follow these leads openly, not petulantly dismiss them. Treat this as potential state-level coercion by hostile proxies until proven otherwise.

THE NEW BATTLEFIELD IS SIGNALS — NOT JUST STRIPES.Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 15, 2025
Pakistan's Afghanistan Crisis: What Orchestrated it?

To eliminate TTP chief?

Absolutely NOT.

Then?

There are multiple factors including Op Sindoor.

This conflict can go longer than what it seems.

Read this thread till the end.Image
Image
Pakistan’s cross-border strikes into Afghanistan can't be understood simply as counterterrorism.

Domestically, Islamabad is facing escalating unrest among the Baloch and Pashtun populations protests, demands for rights, accusations of enforced disappearances, economic neglect.

The army’s image, once almost uncontested, is under pressure as the primary “institution” holding the country together.

By projecting external threats, the civil-military complex seeks to reassert its indispensability.

The Afghan front ....Image
...becomes the dramatic stage for showing “we are protecting the nation,” even as discontent grows at home in structurally marginalized regions.

There is also a palpable desire in Pakistani leadership to demonstrate loyalty to Washington.

The talk of reclaiming Bagram Airbase by the US under Trump has drawn regional concern. By engaging in high-stakes military operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan appears to be indicating that it is still a willing security partner, able to act militarily, share intelligence, and tighten cross-border pressure.

In doing so, Islamabad may hope for political, financial, intelligence or diplomatic rewards from the US. The base issue is symbolic of US strategic priorities in South Asia and China’s growing influence.Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 12, 2025
Pakistan is about to serve POJK on platter to India.

Modi-Shah-Doval had pressed panic button back in 2019.
Dont forget Doval's work in China.

Pahalgam Attack and Op Sindoor made it worse.

Read this thread to understand how Greed, Power and Religion making Pakistan explode👇Image
Image
Pakistan is breaking from within.

Economic collapse, militant violence, and political greed have torn apart what once held it together.

Religion no longer unites, the army no longer commands respect, and foreign powers are pulling its strings.

The fall began in 2019 when India revoked Article 370. That single act shattered Pakistan’s Kashmir dream and stripped its ideological core.

Since then, every desperate move to regain relevance has only dragged it deeper into isolation and internal decay.Image
The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 ended Pakistan’s moral claim over Kashmir.

Decades of propaganda collapsed overnight. The country that built its identity on “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” was left speechless.

Even Muslim nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia chose trade with India over solidarity with Pakistan.

That humiliation cracked the myth that Islam alone could sustain national unity.

From that moment, Pakistan began its slow implosion. It was no longer the voice of the Muslim world, just another struggling state seeking attention in global politics.Image
Read 16 tweets

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