1/ Just back from Kyiv, where I talked to dozens of interlocutors. Below are some observations. First, the mood is heavy but steady. One blogger summed it up with a line from an old war movie: the pilot of a burning plane radios in “No panic, we’re fine, we’re falling.”
2/ While it’s a grim joke, Ukraine is holding: the army remains functional, mobilization is strained but ongoing, protests have faded, financing is still available, and politics remain largely under control. For now, Zelensky faces no strategic internal threat.
3/ Internal strains are mounting. The NABU–SBU clash exposes cracks in wartime governance, while Parubiy’s assassination underscores security gaps. Protests revealed frayed state–society ties — yet for now, the war still holds the bond together.
4/ At YES, finance professionals openly voiced concern over external funding. The overlap of the anti-corruption fight with Ukraine’s soaring financing needs—now resting almost entirely on the EU—has made the situation increasingly precarious.
5/ Inside the OPU, management is increasingly micro-driven. Major decisions often feel improvised, emotional, and reactive. The new government works hard, but all authority remains tightly centralized in the president’s office.
6/ Strategically, two scenarios dominate discussion in Kyiv. Either the war grinds on at current intensity, with Europe capable of carrying most of the financial burden and Ukraine hold the line or diplomacy returns once both sides hit a military horizon (later this year).
7/ Some in Kyiv quietly note Moscow may want to keep Trump “in the game,” as he seeks a deal. Russia itself could use an operational pause, facing limits in seizing big eastern cities like Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia.
8/ Belarus is becoming an offshore for US–Russia recalibration. The latest prisoner swaps are tied to sanctions relief (Belavia) including benefits for Russia’s struggling aerospace sector. Europe remains on the sidelines, but the US lead echoing dynamics of Minsk 2015.
9/ Quietly, elections are on the horizon. The OPU plans to reset the system after the war, lowering the party threshold from 5% to 3%. This would open space for more transactional politics — while the OPU keeps the largest resources and near-total media control.
10/ In short: Ukraine is bruised but not broken. Russia holds tactical military advantages what does not appear decisive. Politics remain contained, and international support—though fragile—still holds. The balance is precarious, hinging on Europe’s willingness to carry the load.
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