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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Sep 23, 2025 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

The CDC reports 29 states & DC are experiencing High or Very High transmission.

The heat map is a patchwork quilt with COVlD levels varying considerably state by state.

Transmission is shifting north + east.
🧵1/8 Heat map: 29 states and DC in high/very high transmission PMC: Estimates 850,000 new daily infections or 1 in 57 people actively infectious
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

COVlD levels by state, AL to MS.

Note that even levels the CDC calls "Low" like Guam at 1.5% actively infectious are at the threshold where I would tell people who have lapsed that it's time to #MaskUp.

🧵2/8 State CDC Level Actively Infectious Alabama Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Alaska High 1 in 38 (2.6%) Arizona Low 1 in 101 (1.0%) Arkansas Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) California Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 20 (4.9%) Delaware High 1 in 33 (3.1%) District of Columbia High 1 in 28 (3.6%) Florida Very High 1 in 25 (3.9%) Georgia Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Guam Low 1 in 68 (1.5%) Hawaii Very High 1 in 25 (4.1%) Idaho Very High 1 in 22 (4.6%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Indiana Very High 1 in 18 (5.7%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) Kansas High 1 i...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

COVlD levels by state, Missouri to Wyoming.

New York is a good example of where the CDC label of "Moderate" simply does not cut it. 1 in 49 is very high, and the data quality statewide has been poor.

🧵3/8 State CDC Level Actively Infectious Missouri Very Low 1 in 129 (0.8%) Montana Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 23 (4.3%) Nevada Very High 1 in 12 (8.5%) New Hampshire Low* 1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey Low 1 in 96 (1.0%) New Mexico Low 1 in 99 (1.0%) New York Moderate 1 in 49 (2.1%) North Carolina Very High 1 in 26 (3.9%) North Dakota High* 1 in 34 (3.0%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 52 (1.9%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) Oregon High 1 in 35 (2.9%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 51 (1.9%) Rhode Island High 1 in 34 (2.9%) South Carolina Very High 1 in 18 (5.7%) South Dakota Very High 1 in ...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

PMC presently estimates transmission peaked on Sep 6 at 1.24 million new daily infections.

Our forecasts were in the range of 1.0-1.3 mil with a peak timed to Sep 6-13, based on rocky & lagged real-time data. Hope it helped you.

🧵4/8 11 waves of C19
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

New weekly infections are estimated at 6.5 million nationwide, leading to thousands of new long-term sequelae, and an eventual ≈3,000 excess deaths.

Only about 1 in 44 infections are being reported.

🧵5/8 National COVID-19 Estimates (U.S.) Infections Sep 22, 2025 pmc19.com/data Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 57 (1.8%) New Daily Infections 857,000 Infections the Past Week 6,450,000 Infections in 2025 177,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.64 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 43,000 to 171,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 323,000 to 1,290,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resu...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

Current SARS-CoV-2 transmission (red line) is eerily tracking that of 2 years ago (yellow).

The good news is the sudden apparent decline from peak transmission. To see the bad news track the yellow line's autumn "lull."

🧵6/8 Year over year graph
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

Our central forecast has national transmission declining steadily the next several weeks, but there is considerable statewide variation.

Historically, 60% of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs on the back end of waves.

🧵7/8 Central forecast estimates a decline toward approximately 700,000 new daily infections by October 4.
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

Protect yourself. You have value. The long-term benefits of reducing cumulative reinfections are tremendous.

The vast majority of PMC dashboard users protect themselves with multilayered mitigation.

🧵8/8 75% of PMC dashboard users indicate using masks, vaccines, tests, and air quality tools in the past 6 months. 95% use at least 3 out of 4. Results are from a dashboard survey last winter of over 1,000 respondents.

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 14
PMC COVlD Update, Apr 13, 2026

Levels are flat during a relative "lull" in transmission.
▪️1 in 187 estimated actively infectious
▪️260,000 estimated new daily infections
▪️High: OK, MS, WV
▪️Moderate: VT
▪️All other states low/very low in relative transmission

🧵THREAD 1/6 Heat map from CDC data and PMC prevalence estimates harmonizing CDC and Biobot wastewater data with IHME true case estimates to derive ongoing transmission projections
COVID-19 persists in 2026.

We are in a relative "lull" following a 12th wave, but at a baseline of 200-300K estimated new daily infections.

Transmission was lower in the era many refer to as #DuringCOVID, when multi-layered mitigation was used instead of denial.

🧵THREAD 2/6 Annotated graph of the 12 waves (U.S.)
Transmission during a "lull" is high in an absolute sense. Many people are getting infected.

Simultaneously, its low in a relative sense, or compared to so-called "typical" transmission. In most places, it's a safer time for medical/dental care.

🧵THREAD 3/6 Barometer showing lower relative transmission than usual
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 6
PMC COVlD Update, April 6, 2026

Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.

We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.

🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)! Heat map with PMC estimates
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.

🧵2 of 10 Alabama Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low* Arkansas Low California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Low District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Low Guam Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Very Low Iowa Very Low Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine Very Low Maryland Low Massachusetts Very Low Michigan Low Minnesota Very Low Mississippi Very High*
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.

🧵3 of 10 Missouri Moderate* Montana Very Low Nebraska Very Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Very Low New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota Very Low* Ohio Very Low Oklahoma Low* Oregon Very Low Pennsylvania Low Rhode Island Very Low South Carolina Very Low South Dakota Low Tennessee Very High Texas Low Utah Very Low Vermont Moderate Virginia Moderate Washington Very Low West Virginia Low Wisconsin Very Low Wyoming Very Low
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 3
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.

Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama Very Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas Low* California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Low Iowa Moderate Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Low Maine Very Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Very Low Michigan High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High* Missouri Low Montana Very Low Nebraska Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Low* New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text. Column 2: Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 732,000 Infections the Past Week 5,220,000 Infections in 2026 24,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.04 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 146,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 261,000 to 1,040,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets

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