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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Sep 23 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

The CDC reports 29 states & DC are experiencing High or Very High transmission.

The heat map is a patchwork quilt with COVlD levels varying considerably state by state.

Transmission is shifting north + east.
🧵1/8 Heat map: 29 states and DC in high/very high transmission PMC: Estimates 850,000 new daily infections or 1 in 57 people actively infectious
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

COVlD levels by state, AL to MS.

Note that even levels the CDC calls "Low" like Guam at 1.5% actively infectious are at the threshold where I would tell people who have lapsed that it's time to #MaskUp.

🧵2/8 State CDC Level Actively Infectious Alabama Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Alaska High 1 in 38 (2.6%) Arizona Low 1 in 101 (1.0%) Arkansas Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) California Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 20 (4.9%) Delaware High 1 in 33 (3.1%) District of Columbia High 1 in 28 (3.6%) Florida Very High 1 in 25 (3.9%) Georgia Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Guam Low 1 in 68 (1.5%) Hawaii Very High 1 in 25 (4.1%) Idaho Very High 1 in 22 (4.6%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Indiana Very High 1 in 18 (5.7%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) Kansas High 1 i...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

COVlD levels by state, Missouri to Wyoming.

New York is a good example of where the CDC label of "Moderate" simply does not cut it. 1 in 49 is very high, and the data quality statewide has been poor.

🧵3/8 State CDC Level Actively Infectious Missouri Very Low 1 in 129 (0.8%) Montana Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 23 (4.3%) Nevada Very High 1 in 12 (8.5%) New Hampshire Low* 1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey Low 1 in 96 (1.0%) New Mexico Low 1 in 99 (1.0%) New York Moderate 1 in 49 (2.1%) North Carolina Very High 1 in 26 (3.9%) North Dakota High* 1 in 34 (3.0%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 52 (1.9%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) Oregon High 1 in 35 (2.9%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 51 (1.9%) Rhode Island High 1 in 34 (2.9%) South Carolina Very High 1 in 18 (5.7%) South Dakota Very High 1 in ...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

PMC presently estimates transmission peaked on Sep 6 at 1.24 million new daily infections.

Our forecasts were in the range of 1.0-1.3 mil with a peak timed to Sep 6-13, based on rocky & lagged real-time data. Hope it helped you.

🧵4/8 11 waves of C19
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

New weekly infections are estimated at 6.5 million nationwide, leading to thousands of new long-term sequelae, and an eventual ≈3,000 excess deaths.

Only about 1 in 44 infections are being reported.

🧵5/8 National COVID-19 Estimates (U.S.) Infections Sep 22, 2025 pmc19.com/data Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 57 (1.8%) New Daily Infections 857,000 Infections the Past Week 6,450,000 Infections in 2025 177,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.64 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 43,000 to 171,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 323,000 to 1,290,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resu...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

Current SARS-CoV-2 transmission (red line) is eerily tracking that of 2 years ago (yellow).

The good news is the sudden apparent decline from peak transmission. To see the bad news track the yellow line's autumn "lull."

🧵6/8 Year over year graph
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

Our central forecast has national transmission declining steadily the next several weeks, but there is considerable statewide variation.

Historically, 60% of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs on the back end of waves.

🧵7/8 Central forecast estimates a decline toward approximately 700,000 new daily infections by October 4.
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Sep 22, 2025 (U.S.)

Protect yourself. You have value. The long-term benefits of reducing cumulative reinfections are tremendous.

The vast majority of PMC dashboard users protect themselves with multilayered mitigation.

🧵8/8 75% of PMC dashboard users indicate using masks, vaccines, tests, and air quality tools in the past 6 months. 95% use at least 3 out of 4. Results are from a dashboard survey last winter of over 1,000 respondents.

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 20
Three years ago, the American public was told in passing that the "pandemic is over."

PMC estimates that since that day, U.S. residents have experienced nearly 1 billion SARS-CoV-2 infections. Specifically, 974,190,702 infections, based on wastewater-derived estimates.

1/5
Far from harmless, recent high-quality data (e.g., PCORnet) suggest each infection leads about 30% of people to experience long-term health sequelae.

Per infection.

Some of these changes will be temporary, and others permanent.

2/5
COVlD is still killing people. It's now less acute. Deaths weeks, months, or years after infection.

Heart attacks. Strokes. Organ failure. A cancer prognosis that suddenly turns from favorable to fatal.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 16
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/7

COVlD-19 levels are "Very High" or "High" in the majority of states, per the CDC.

This includes 27 states & D.C.

🔥🔥Very High:
Alaska, Hawai'i, California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, S. Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, S. Carolina, N. Carolina, D.C., Maryland, and Connecticut.

🔥High:
Washington state, Oregon, Montana, probably N. Dakota (imputed), Arkansas, Alabama, Virginia, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

PMC estimates 1 in 38 people (2.7%) are actively infectious. Wastewater-derived case estimates suggest 1.3 million new daily infections.Heat map using CDC levels. Key findings summarized in the post.
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/7

Transmission is peaking nationally, but regional variation is common. Know what's happening in your state, and get the word out.

Note that the levels CDC calls "low" are still quite alarming.State | CDC Level | PMC Estimate, % Actively Infectious Alabama High 1 in 30 (3.4%) Alaska Very High 1 in 22 (4.6%) Arizona Moderate 1 in 40 (2.5%) Arkansas High 1 in 28 (3.6%) California Very High 1 in 21 (4.8%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 50 (2.0%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 19 (5.3%) Delaware High 1 in 33 (3.0%) District of Columbia Very High 1 in 17 (6.0%) Florida Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Georgia Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Guam Low 1 in 64 (1.6%) Hawaii Very High 1 in 26 (3.8%) Idaho Very High 1 in 14 (7.3%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Indiana Very High 1 in 16 (6.1%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 40...
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/7

Note that transmission is increasingly spreading from the South & West toward other areas. Know your state-level risk.

Transmission remains alarming even in areas CDC labels "Very Low" (e.g., Missouri, estimated 1 in 109). State | CDC Level | PMC Estimate, % Actively Infectious Missouri Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Montana High 1 in 36 (2.8%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 18 (5.5%) Nevada Very High 1 in 17 (5.9%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 64 (1.6%) New Jersey Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 106 (0.9%) New York Low 1 in 73 (1.4%) North Carolina Very High 1 in 17 (5.8%) North Dakota High* 1 in 32 (3.2%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 44 (2.3%) Oregon High 1 in 31 (3.2%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Rhode Island High 1 in 30 (3.3%) South Carolina Very High 1 in 15 (6.6%) South D...
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 13
California COVlD Surge Rages Higher

🔸CDC SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels "Very High," and up from last week
🔸1 in 21 estimated actively infectious
🔸>250,000 estimated new daily infections statewide

Four figures...
1/4🧵 CDC: Very High: PMC Estimate: 1 in 21 actively infectious
CDC wastewater data in California show COVlD cases increasing from the already "Very High" levels last week.

2/4🧵 Line graph of the past 6 months showing the surge in wastewater viral levels
With an estimated 1 in 21 (or 4.8%) of California residents actively infectious of COVlD, risk increases dramatically in larger and more frequent social gatherings.

Interact with 25 people of average risk of being positive, and that's a >70% chance of exposure.
3/4🧵 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contacts? Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 4.8% 2 9.4% 3 13.7% 4 17.9% 5 21.8% 6 25.6% 7 29.1% 8 32.5% 9 35.8% 10 38.9% 15 52.2% 20 62.6% 25 70.8% 30 77.1% 35 82.1% 40 86.0% 50 91.5% 75 97.5% 100 99.3% 300 99.9%
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 10
Let's say you're a dairy farmer. You have 100 cows. Each year, about 5 cows die, and another 5 cows are born. Then, along comes a virus. Let's call it "cowvid"...
1/
Let's say "cowvid" wipes out about half the cows over the course of a couple years. Now, you're down to 50 cows....
2/
The local mayor declares "cowvid" to be over. This surprises you as a farmer because 5 of your cows keep dying annually. 5 of 50 instead of 5 out of 100. Seems like more, but you're not a city slicker...
3/
Read 12 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 7
#DuringCOVID is today.

Image pack 1 of 9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic in the U.S., tailored to a key message noted in the post.
1 million New Daily Infections.

Today!

Image pack 2 of 9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic in the U.S., tailored to a key message noted in the post.
Where are the free vaccines, N95s, and tests?

Image pack 3 of 9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic in the U.S., tailored to a key message noted in the post.
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 3
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵1 of 8

The 11th wave is still rising.
🔥23 states/territories High/Very High
🔥Very High: Alabama, DC, Guam, Hawai'i, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah
🔥1 in 56 estimated actively infectious
🔥876,000 new daily infections CDC heat map, very high states noted in post. PMC estimate of 1 in 56 actively infectious nationwide
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵2 of 8

Note that the CDC has modified 📉 how transmission levels correspond to the categorical bins.

Take California. We estimate 1 in 30 actively infectious statewide. This would have previously been "Very High," now just "High."
#NewNormal CDC heatmap, with PMC estimate of 1 in 30
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵3 of 8

Here are the prevalence estimates for the first half of states/territories.

Notice how high the levels are in some of the "Moderate" states. State CDC Level Alabama Very High Alaska High Arizona High Arkansas Moderate California High Colorado Moderate Connecticut High Delaware High District of Columbia Very High Florida High Georgia Moderate Guam Very High Hawaii Very High Idaho High Illinois Very Low Indiana Moderate* Iowa Low Kansas Low Kentucky High Louisiana Very High Maine Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Moderate Michigan Very Low Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High*
Read 9 tweets

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