Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Russian warbloggers are angrily denouncing General Valery Gerasimov for blatantly lying to President Vladimir Putin about Russia's military progress in Ukraine during a televised briefing. They note that the incident highlights the persistent problem of false reporting. ⬇️

2/ A few weeks ago, some observant commentators noticed that a map of the front lines seen in the background of a Russian Ministry of Defence video showed Russian positions kilometers further west than Russian or Ukrainian OSINT analysts had independently assessed them to be.

3/ Yesterday's Putin-Gerasimov briefing demonstrated that this was not just for show, but was being reported directly to 'the Supreme' himself. Gerasimov claimed that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad were encircled, with 31 Ukrainian battalions surrounded by Russian forces.

4/ He also claimed that Russia had completed the encirclement of Kupiansk, with another 18 Ukrainian battalions trapped there, and boasted that more than 70% of Vovchansk was under Russian control.

5/ Russian warbloggers have joined Ukrainian and independent commentators in rejecting these claims. 'Romanov Light' notes tersely: "Once again, the information reported does not correspond to reality on the ground."

6/ 'Tactical Medical Courses' is sarcastic: "I wonder, if I say that Gerasimov is lying about the encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, will that be considered discrediting the Russian Armed Forces? Or are Gerasimov's words discrediting the Russian Armed Forces?"

7/ 'Zimovsky' is even more sarcastic: "10,500 Banderites in a cauldron —that's thousands of prisoners!

When will they be marched through Moscow?"

8/ 'Military Informant' highlights multiple independent maps of the situation at Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and wonders if "Enemies have once again penetrated Comrade Gerasimov's encirclement."

9/ "Of course, at this point, there are simply no encirclements of 6-7 brigades (if we consider only the combat battalions) . The existing corridor between the Russian Armed Forces groups in the west and north of Pokrovsk is several kilometers long.

10/ "Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that a multi-thousand-strong Ukrainian Armed Forces group is still entrenched within the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration—the current reality is that fighting is conducted by small infantry groups, both defensively and offensively.

11/ "This implies that the relatively small group is easily supplied through the current corridor by ground and air drones, as it does not require large amounts of supplies.

12/ "Even if a local encirclement does occur somewhere, experience shows that the enemy will be able to fight for a long time in a cut-off state, fully equipped with drones.

13/ "All of the above also applies to Kupiansk, where 18 Ukrainian battalions were declared encircled. It's difficult to say what this report was intended for.

14/ "Perhaps Gerasimov, with his bravura reports "on credit," is simply getting ahead of himself once again, expecting the real situation on the ground to soon catch up with his reports.

15/ "For example, this was the case with Kupiansk, where the report about the liberation of half of its territory was realized only more than a month later.

16/ "Or perhaps this report has geopolitical goals, as was the case earlier with the statements about the "encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region," which then provoked Trump to request mercy for the encircled troops and also left him with the impression…

17/ …for many months that Ukraine had serious problems on the front lines."

As Petr Lundstrem points out, such false reports are the result of a long chain of false reporting from local commanders upwards, which has been a persistent issue throughout the war:

18/ "This is a dangerous topic. I honestly don't understand why this is being done. And where is the backstop? Who exactly starts lying in reports to higher-ups, and where are the structures that are supposed to check military reports and confirm or refute them?

19/ "However, it is clear that in modern warfare, it is virtually impossible for verifying bodies, including the Department of Military Counterintelligence, to reach the front line (no one has such an opportunity there), but there must be options."

20/ Some commentators suggest that Gerasimov is deliberately blurring the difference between encirclement and fire control to bamboozle Putin, who has never served in the military and may not understand the difference. 'Reporter Filatov' points out:

21/ "Taking control of logistics doesn't mean encirclement.

For those interested: the enemy can supply its encircled garrison by air. Yaga-type drones (various cargo drones) can keep the Ukrainian Armed Forces militants supplied for another couple of months.

22/ "No adequate countermeasures have been developed. Some units have developed some, but no systematic work is being done.

23/ "Encirclement as before" doesn't work as before. We can certainly press the issue, but hasty reports, for example, prevent us from using KABs [aircraft-dropped bombs] on our own, since enemy positions on the map are marked with their own pencils."

24/ Alexey Sukonkin has a similar perspective, and adds that it may be a show to influence Trump's thinking about the supposed hopelessness of Ukraine's continued resistance:

25/ "Isolation" ... has a completely different meaning. It means hindering the enemy's efforts to provide the force group with all types of supplies (ammunition, fuel, food, medicine, fresh meat), as well as preventing the evacuation of the wounded.

26/ "Isolation is achieved by constant monitoring of logistics routes and their constant destruction with artillery and attack drones. But this still doesn't equate to encirclement, and the Chief of the General Staff knows this better than all of us combined.

27/ "Why would he confuse concepts in front of the Supreme Commander? I even had the guilty thought that, due to significant changes in tactics and operational art (see the post above),...

28/ ...the concepts of "encirclement" and "isolation" could have been conflated due to a change in the concept of "line of combat contact," which should now be called "zone of combat contact."

29/ "However, there's another explanation: it's possible that in his conversation with Trump, our president promised operational and tactical problems for Ukraine in the near future. And now they've been voiced." /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/romanov_92/497…
🔹 t.me/tacticalmedici…
🔹 t.me/milinfolive/15…
🔹 t.me/petrlundstrem/…
🔹 t.me/filatovcorr/60…
🔹 t.me/A_S_Sukonkin/8…

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