The Market Cycle: Long-Term vs. Short-Term Holders 🧵
The crypto market is shaped by two key groups: Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH).
Understanding their behavior helps identify the market phase and anticipate trends.
Let’s break it down. 👇
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss):
•In bullish trends, LTH’s NUPL approaches 1 (max unrealized profit), while STH stays below 0.5.
•This gap gives insight into sentiment—when LTH are deep in profit and STH lag, we might be near cycle tops.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value):
• LTH MVRV surpasses 10 in strong bull markets, while STH stays under 1.6.
• This contrast highlights how LTH tend to ride trends longer, while STH react quickly to price swings.
1/10) A thread on why I (a renowned bear) believe we are approaching maximum opportunity, and how I plan on buying at/near the bottom, all whilst practicing solid risk management. #Bitcoin
Please retweet, and I shall explain my thinking process 🙃
2/10) Observations of Cycle 1
Buying around 1 year prior to the halvening event (marked with orange vertical dashed line) provided max opportunity
(Green vertical dashed line) is when the first halvening occurred & price went parabolic.
It took 52 weeks from halvening 1 to ATH
3/10) Observations of Cycle 2
Buying between 1 year & 1.5 years prior to the halvening event provided maximum opportunity
Like the first cycle, price goes parabolic right after the halvening event.
74 weeks after the halvening price makes a new ATH
1/5) Many are inboxing me regarding short trades
Leverage should be used to control your position size
There are many ways to enter a position, as I have mentioned before, I tend to enter on very low leverage with a small position size the further away I am from my invalidation
2/5) As I near that invalidation level, I get more aggressive. Meaning, the closer I get to my stop, the bigger I make my position.
Why? Obviously because the risk gets significantly reduced the closer you are to your stop.
And top tier trading = expert risk management
3/5) So for those messaging me freaking out about being down badly because you aped in far from your invalidation level. This tweet thread is to help you understand better how to do this. Because maybe you are confused.