The Market Cycle: Long-Term vs. Short-Term Holders 🧵

The crypto market is shaped by two key groups: Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH).

Understanding their behavior helps identify the market phase and anticipate trends.

Let’s break it down. 👇 NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss):

•In bullish trends, LTH’s NUPL approaches 1 (max unrealized profit), while STH stays below 0.5.
•This gap gives insight into sentiment—when LTH are deep in profit and STH lag, we might be near cycle tops.

1/10) A thread on why I (a renowned bear) believe we are approaching maximum opportunity, and how I plan on buying at/near the bottom, all whilst practicing solid risk management. #Bitcoin

Please retweet, and I shall explain my thinking process 🙃 2/10) Observations of Cycle 1
Buying around 1 year prior to the halvening event (marked with orange vertical dashed line) provided max opportunity
(Green vertical dashed line) is when the first halvening occurred & price went parabolic.
It took 52 weeks from halvening 1 to ATH

1/5) Many are inboxing me regarding short trades
Leverage should be used to control your position size
There are many ways to enter a position, as I have mentioned before, I tend to enter on very low leverage with a small position size the further away I am from my invalidation 2/5) As I near that invalidation level, I get more aggressive. Meaning, the closer I get to my stop, the bigger I make my position.
Why? Obviously because the risk gets significantly reduced the closer you are to your stop.
And top tier trading = expert risk management