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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Nov 8, 2025 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵

🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon. Year over year graph, emphasizing that levels commonly rise in mid November
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵

The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.

There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month. Close up of the most recent 3 months of data, including the forecast.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵

We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.

Do a DIY fit test if you've been putting it off. Graph of the 11 waves
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
4/6🧵

Can you believe that in a "lull" in transmission in 2025, wastewater-based case estimates suggest we're still getting nearly 2 million SARS-CoV-2 infections/week?

People are still getting #LongCOVID & still dying. Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 162 (0.6%) New Daily Infections 301,000 Infections the Past Week 1,990,000 Infections in 2025 199,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.72 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 15,000 to 60,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 100,000 to 400,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 90 to 140 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths Resulting ...
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
5/6🧵

Even during a "lull," the risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 remains high in large gatherings.

🏫School day? 1 in 7 chance of an exposure.

🎉Large political celebration? Coin toss or worse. Test to reduce forward transmission. Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 0.6% 2 1.2% 3 1.8% 4 2.4% 5 3.0% 10 6.0% 15 8.9% 20 11.6% 25 14.3% 30 16.9% 50 26.6% 75 37.1% 100 46.1% 200 71.0% 300 84.4%
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
6/6🧵

The most recent data from the CDC are now nearly 2 months old.

We can provide national estimates from Biobot-based data. For state-level data from non-CDC sources check out pmc19.com/statesHeat map = blackout

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 14
PMC COVlD Update, Apr 13, 2026

Levels are flat during a relative "lull" in transmission.
▪️1 in 187 estimated actively infectious
▪️260,000 estimated new daily infections
▪️High: OK, MS, WV
▪️Moderate: VT
▪️All other states low/very low in relative transmission

🧵THREAD 1/6 Heat map from CDC data and PMC prevalence estimates harmonizing CDC and Biobot wastewater data with IHME true case estimates to derive ongoing transmission projections
COVID-19 persists in 2026.

We are in a relative "lull" following a 12th wave, but at a baseline of 200-300K estimated new daily infections.

Transmission was lower in the era many refer to as #DuringCOVID, when multi-layered mitigation was used instead of denial.

🧵THREAD 2/6 Annotated graph of the 12 waves (U.S.)
Transmission during a "lull" is high in an absolute sense. Many people are getting infected.

Simultaneously, its low in a relative sense, or compared to so-called "typical" transmission. In most places, it's a safer time for medical/dental care.

🧵THREAD 3/6 Barometer showing lower relative transmission than usual
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 6
PMC COVlD Update, April 6, 2026

Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.

We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.

🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)! Heat map with PMC estimates
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.

🧵2 of 10 Alabama Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low* Arkansas Low California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Low District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Low Guam Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Very Low Iowa Very Low Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine Very Low Maryland Low Massachusetts Very Low Michigan Low Minnesota Very Low Mississippi Very High*
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.

🧵3 of 10 Missouri Moderate* Montana Very Low Nebraska Very Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Very Low New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota Very Low* Ohio Very Low Oklahoma Low* Oregon Very Low Pennsylvania Low Rhode Island Very Low South Carolina Very Low South Dakota Low Tennessee Very High Texas Low Utah Very Low Vermont Moderate Virginia Moderate Washington Very Low West Virginia Low Wisconsin Very Low Wyoming Very Low
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 3
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.

Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama Very Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas Low* California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Low Iowa Moderate Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Low Maine Very Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Very Low Michigan High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High* Missouri Low Montana Very Low Nebraska Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Low* New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text. Column 2: Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 732,000 Infections the Past Week 5,220,000 Infections in 2026 24,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.04 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 146,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 261,000 to 1,040,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets

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