1/ Russia's battlefield communications are reportedly "in chaos" following the Starlink shutdown. Communications specialists are said to be scrambling to find alternative solutions, while warbloggers advocate torturing Ukrainian PoWs to get their Starlink passwords. ⬇️
2/ Yuri Podolyak writes:
"So, what everyone had long feared, but secretly hoped wouldn't happen until the end of the Special Military Operation has happened. Elon Musk flipped the switch, and 80% of Starlink terminals on the front line went down."
3/ "Moreover, it's highly likely that on our side, this will soon reach 100%, and only Russian ingenuity can attempt to circumvent it. And they will probably circumvent it somehow. But not with a return to 100% functionality as of yesterday morning.
4/ "But until that's done, our communications are in chaos. The enemy's communications are currently in the same chaos, but the outlook is different. Their terminals will sooner or later be whitelisted and restore functionality. Maybe not completely, but to a greater extent."
5/ 'NGP razVedka' acknowledges that the shutdown is having an impact, but says that it will be mitigated in time as alternatives are found:
6/ "1. No, it cannot affect strikes deep into enemy territory. Starlink has only recently begun to be used for final-flight corrections, and by no means on all drones.
7/ "However, this is precisely what caused the Ukrainians to become so hysterical about this topic and the corresponding appeal to Musk.
2. No, it does not affect aerial reconnaissance or further intelligence.
8/ "3. Yes, it will have a certain impact on internet availability in the field.
4. Yes, there are no alternatives at all, right now.
5. There is a Gazprom dish; it works, but, to put it mildly, it is inferior in connection speed and needs to be developed or improved.
9/ "6. Of course, high-speed internet can be brought to the field using other methods; it is technically possible, and many are currently working on it.
7. Yes, there are ways to verify Starlink that will allow you to bypass the blocking, but this will take some time.
10/ "8. Yes, there are Chinese equivalents that we're currently considering importing and launching privately.
9. Yes, they're promising us a Russian equivalent next year, but promises are a far cry from promises.
11/ "10. Yes, any Ukrainian who tries to giggle or grunt about this should go to hell, since their misfit country not only lacks its own satellite internet, but has never had anything of its own. A tribe of ragamuffins, they can do nothing but wag their tongues.
12/ "⚠️ 11. Yes, Ukrainian cell phone towers and mobile internet can and should be used; the technology is proven, the Ukrainians know this, and there's nothing to hide.
13/ "Yes, they will also be without internet during drone attacks—as an answer to those who complain, "Why don't the Ukrainian authorities shut down the internet for the Ukrainians?"
12. No, the strikes won't become less widespread."
14/ 'Obsessed with war' says that "it's time to pull out two-year-old proposals that were immediately dismissed by the Ministry of Defence as unsuitable for use on the front lines."
15/ "The idea was to deploy a network of LTE base stations in close proximity to the front lines, including in the 900 and 450 MHz bands, which, while losing in bandwidth, gain in propagation range, allowing a larger area to be covered with fewer base stations.
16/ "The arguments against it back then were simple, mothballed, and similar to our Ministry of Defence as a whole:
17/ "1) The enemy's all-powerful electronic warfare system will immediately identify them and destroy them (rule number 1 of the Russian Ministry of Defence: "What if something happens, who will be responsible?")
"2) It will never pass the 8th Directorate.
18/ "3) We won't be able to purchase it, it's unlicenced.
[The answers:]
"1) Naturally, they will identify and destroy. In war, everyone is busy identifying and destroying. But everyone is fighting (except the Black Sea Fleet).
19/ "2) The presence of the 8th Directorate (with its former bribe-taking boss, now in pretrial detention) didn't stop them from fighting on the Starlink-Telegram network all this time.
"3) The lack of a licence didn't stop them from buying almost everything they use now.
20/ "Operators have the capabilities, and even industry has some.
There are also reserves of stations and mobile stations for emergencies and mass events.
21/ "As always, the only thing missing is the desire and the will.
It's time to stop being afraid of ourselves and provide the troops with communications.
22/ "LTE won't even come close to replacing Starlink, but it can certainly solve some of the problems ... In addition, it will be possible to immediately integrate these base stations with other wired and radio communication channels available in the troops."
23/ 'Russian Engineer' writes that "the primary backbone communications on the front lines currently rely on fiber optics and radio bridges. Starlink is very important, a convenient niche for its tasks, but it's not the foundation of frontline communications."
24/ "We need to develop firmware, other mechanisms to bypass the blockade, and create alternative communication methods for the front lines...
25/ "And those units that have always created backup communication systems in parallel with Starlink are now in a much better position; the rest will have to catch up.
26/ "And when the blocking bypasses are operational, we will still need to continue to back up communication systems, because a reliable military command and control system cannot be built on someone else's resources."
27/ On the other hand, two warbloggers write, why not just torture Ukrainian PoWs until they give up their Starlink login details?
28/ Roman Saponkov comments: "Incidentally, yesterday the cost of documents for a captured Ukrainian went up (the body itself isn't needed, so he doesn't appear on the lists). Yesterday, Musk strongly encouraged people not to take prisoners."
29/ 'Combat Reserve' puts it more bluntly: "First things first: get the account details from the captured Ukrainian. Cut off his ears for the account." /end
1/ General Vladimir Alexseyev, who was shot yesterday in a Moscow apartment building, may have been secretly visiting his mistress before the attack. Despite a reputation as an uncorrupt officer, he is said to have enjoyed the same luxurious lifestyle as many of his peers. ⬇️
2/ The building where Alekseyev was shot is a fairly ordinary apartment building in Moscow's Shchukino District. Completed in 2022, it has 10 apartments on each floor. Alekseyev was using an apartment on the 24th floor.
3/ According to neighbours, the apartment is occupied by a younger woman with a young child. They say she was seen often with the child, but Alekseyev was only seen rarely. His 'official' wife is in her 60s (he is 64) and their children are in their 30s.
1/ Why has Russia failed so abysmally at providing secure battlefield communications to its troops in Ukraine? The answer, concludes Russian warblogger Oleg Tsarev, is that the military communications budget has been looted for years by corrupt generals and contractors. ⬇️
2/ Tsarev relates the dismal history of Russia's military communications programmes:
"I remember how, at the beginning of the Special Military Operation, all units were buying Motorola radios. There was no other communications."
3/ "Now, Elon Musk has shut down the Starlink terminals our military used in the Special Military Operation, and our communications at the front have been disrupted. I'm talking to military personnel: many say we still have virtually no communications of our own.
1/ The attempted assassination of Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev in Moscow this morning has outraged Russian warbloggers, who regard him as a hero of Russia. They have highlighted his key role and contributions to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Vladimir Romanov writes:
"An assassination attempt was made on Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev [who is known as 'Stepanich'], First Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Ministry of Defence."
3/ "An unknown assailant fired several shots into his back in the elevator lobby of a building on Volokolamsk Highway at 7:00 a.m. The assassin fled the scene. Alekseyev was hospitalised.
1/ A Russian warblogger explains what the Russian army in Ukraine saw when they were disconnected en masse from Starlink yesterday. ⬇️
2/ "Starlink went down across the theatre of military operations in a rather strange way.
At around 22:00 Moscow time, it was like this:
3/ "– All terminals in the Ukraine theatre of operations are blocked. Both ours and those of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even from their "white list". All of them.
1/ Russian retailers are cashing in on Elon Musk's mass disabling of the Russian army's Starlink terminals by massively increasing the price of Russian alternatives. One such system has quadrupled in price overnight to over $2,600, but is said to be far inferior to Starlink. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' complains that there has been a huge overnight increase in the price being asked for the Yamal 601 system, which uses Gazprom's Yamal satellite constellation. Units are now selling for 200,000 rubles ($2,612) apiece.
3/ Listings on Avito (Russia's answer to eBay) show that until yesterday, Yamal 601 units were being priced at between 45-60,000 rubles. They are however far less capable than Starlink, and Russian soldiers have avoided them in favour of the smaller and faster US-made system.
1/ Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing a devastating loss of connectivity as the Starlink terminals they rely upon are systematically shut off. With Russia's own Starlink alternative years away from implementation, Russian warbloggers say the army is in crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russian army has, like Ukraine's, become dependent on Starlink for battlefield communications. Unlike Ukraine, it cannot import Starlink terminals legally and has to rely on grey imports activated in third countries.
3/ After Russian UAV makers began installing Starlink in kamikaze UAVs, SpaceX responded by implementing technical measures to disconnect fact-moving terminals and Ukraine began whitelisting its own terminals – with all non-whitelisted terminals being disabled.