Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Feb 17 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Hodges: Nobody believes that if Russia gets that last bit of Donbas they will be satisfied and stop.

I’ve listened to Putin, Medvedev. They haven’t backed down on anything. Why should anybody think that’s all they wanted? 1/
Hodges: I can’t imagine Putin admitting his war was a huge mistake. Maybe people say, “You are destroying us.” Or maybe he doesn’t know what’s going on.

For years we were told the ex-KGB officer is smart, playing three-dimensional chess. If he doesn’t know, that’s his fault. 2/
Hodges: Casualties don’t matter to Putin. What matters is whether he can stay in power and whether the economy can generate enough money to keep the war going.

That’s why destroying Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure is a good strategy. 3/
Hodges: Putin is confident the US will do nothing to stop him and that Europe will not fill the gap.

He will keep going until he is forced to realize that Europe and Canada are with Ukraine and will give it what it needs to defeat Russia. 4/
Hodges: The best way to protect Europe is to make sure Ukraine wins.

Not one German, British or Polish soldier would have to die if Ukraine gets everything it needs. If Ukraine fails, Russia could be ready within a year or two to attack Latvia or Lithuania. 5X
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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 19
In Geneva, Ukraine tries to prevent Russia from getting Donbas but to no avail.

The latest round of talks ended without progress, as Moscow demands Kyiv hand over a 50×40 mile strip of territory in Donetsk as the price for ending the war. — NYT 1/ Image
Russia wants a strip of land about 50 miles long and 40 miles wide between the frontline and the administrative border of Donetsk region, covering dozens of towns and villages.

Ukraine refuses to withdraw unilaterally. 2/
Kyiv argues that ceding land would embolden Russia to attack again, either in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Zelenskyy: “Allowing the aggressor to take something is a big mistake.” 3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 19
Former Ukrainian FM Kuleba: Trump likes Putin. He would like to rule America the way Putin rules Russia or Xi rules China.

Trump sees the world through a superpower lens: when a superpower tells a country what to do, it should comply.

Ukraine doesn’t fit that worldview.

1/
Former Ukrainian FM Kuleba: I don’t expect any deal before the end of winter.

Russia bringing Medinsky back sends a signal: “We’re not in a hurry.”

This is a circus. He’s a clown, not a negotiator.

2/
Kuleba: Putin will agree to a ceasefire only under two conditions.

First: the front stabilizes. He can no longer claim “we advance every day, we hold the initiative.”

Second: Russia’s economic problems become so severe that he needs a pause to ease sanctions pressure.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 19
Suppliers of death.

The Insider identified 300 Russian companies purchasing goods specifically for the military-industrial complex.

Sanction one firm — another appears. But mapping the full network at once could hit production harder. 1/ Image
In 2024, nearly 10,000 Russian companies imported sanctioned goods worth over $22B.

More than 2,000 of them were contractors for leading defense enterprises. Defense contractors imported over $5B in sanctioned goods. 2/
Using domestic transaction data matched with customs records, The Insider identified 160 key intermediaries tied directly to top military plants.

Their confirmed deliveries to defense firms — 80B rubles ($1B). 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19
Ukrainian soldiers survive –25°C this winter — United24.

On the Sumy front, frozen trenches, failing engines, and constant drone surveillance define daily combat.

Commander “Bull”: “You’d doze off… open your eyes, and the snow had already covered you.” 1/ Image
The temperature drops to –25°C. At dawn, 8 km from Russian positions, anti-drone netting covers Ukrainian artillery.

Snow hides positions and exposes them. Footprints can give coordinates away within minutes. 2/
Bull commands an artillery unit of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. “The first two days without heating are manageable. But by the third or fourth day at –10°C, it gets really hard. Frostbite becomes real.” 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 19
MAGA could regret backing Europe’s far-right parties because they distrust America and define themselves against U.S. influence.

Janan Ganesh for FT: Europe’s nationalist movements often see the U.S. as rootless commerce, not nationhood. 1/ Image
Germany’s AfD leans pro-Russia in one of the most Atlanticist countries in Europe.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán builds ties with China. Yet anti-China MAGA elevates Orbán above almost anyone but Trump. 2/
If “America First” means maximizing US leverage, why help bring to power governments in Berlin or Paris that resist American influence over time?

Nationalism at home. Nationalism abroad. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19
A 15-year-old Yana wakes under rubble in Kyiv. A North Korean KN-23 missile hit her home. Inside that missile were Western components — including British-made converters.

Despite sanctions, Russia and others receive components for their weapons — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
On April 24, 2025, 12 civilians were killed in their sleep in Kyiv. Yana’s parents and brother died. Her ribs and leg were shattered.

Zelenskyy said the missile contained 116 Western-made components. Sanctions exist. Yet the parts keep flowing. 2/
From 2022 to 2024, XP Power-labelled shipments worth $2.5M were imported into Russia. Nearly half moved via Hong Kong middlemen.

Dual-use electronics — as useful in a computer as in a ballistic missile. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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