Raylan Givens Profile picture
Mar 3 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
⭕️🧵THE US & ISRAEL’S GROUND PLAN FOR IRAN: With the WSJ report that President Trump is open to arming militias in Iran to start acting as “ground forces” and begin an armed rebellion against the remnants of the regime, here’s what I think the plan is.
📌 The conditions on the ground that Israel and the promised to create for the Iranian people to rise up will start in Kurdistan. Reports earlier this week said that Trump had spoken to Iraqi Kurdish leaders about “sensitive” matters that could not be disclosed. With this new report about specifically arming Iranian Kurdish groups, I believe we will first see action there.
📌 This could present in a number of ways. Armed Iranian Kurdish groups (some of which already exist) could begin a localized uprising in Western Iran. This might be in conjunction with and supported by the Peshmerga in Iraqi Kurdistan, who could do anything from sending supplies/weapons to actually sending ground forces over the border to fight. Israeli strikes have specifically been focusing on IRGC military infrastructure in Western Iran/Kurdistan to “clear the path” for an uprising.
📌 The US and Israel could plausibly support this uprising in a number of ways. The easiest option would be logistical support and weapons, but declaring a no-fly zone and providing aerial strikes would also be highly effective. We might see Israeli and/or American SF units embed with Kurdish groups, whether that be US Army Special Forces (Green Berets), who specialize in training and leading unconventional forces in hostile countries, or other units.
📌 Another dimension to this plan might be a deeper strategic move designed to punish the Iranian puppet regime in Iraq. If Iraqi Kurdish forces do get actively involved in the fighting in Iran, this could be an opportunity for them to further consolidate territorial control of a more unified Kurdistan across Iran and Iraq (minus the Syrian and Turkish regions).
📌 President Trump MAY have promised the Iraqi Kurdish leaders whom he spoke to this week that the US would support a breakaway from Iraq in exchange for assistance from Iran. Again, this is a massive “IF” given that historically the Kurds have been mostly abandoned by the West.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Raylan Givens

Raylan Givens Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JewishWarrior13

Mar 2
⭕️🧵MUST READ: Inside Israel’s Long Game on Iran’s Supreme Leader. The Financial Times takes you inside years of Israeli intelligence planning focused on Iran’s top leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
📌According to the report, Israeli intelligence reportedly built detailed “patterns of life” on senior Iranian officials—tracking routines, security layers, movement corridors, and communications over extended periods.
📌A key element: cyber penetration. The article describes alleged access to municipal cameras, traffic systems, and digital infrastructure to map secure routes and identify vulnerabilities in Tehran’s security architecture.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
⭕️🧵In a few hours, the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran will begin. Here is a guide explaining how a “Turkish Bazaar”—or, more accurately, a Middle Eastern bazaar—works and how to avoid its pitfalls. By the way, 'bāzār' is a Persian word, meaning "place of prices."
📌 The item you are selling: Most of the time, the item you want to sell is not even worth a fraction of the price you’re asking for, but you make it seem like it’s the best thing since sliced bread. You also play the game of claiming “these items are not for sale” to increase their perceived value.
📌 Now comes the pre-negotiations: First, you play hard to get, forcing the other side to make compromises before talks even begin.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
🚨🧵From Israel Hayom: Israeli frustration with Witkoff: Pushing for a non-military solution to Iran—despite the evidence
A senior Israeli official confirms that Witkoff is the mediator with Iran: "Witkoff brought Trump a WhatsApp message from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and added a written promise from President Massoud Pazakhsian in order to convince him to postpone the attack."
This may not be the only reason for the postponement, as preparations for a serious operation were incomplete two weeks ago, but it also affected the president's mood. "Even now, when intelligence information and testimonies from Iranians are reaching Israel and intelligence agencies in other countries in the region, as well as the United States itself, even now, Witkoff is trying to convince them to follow the diplomatic path to solving the Iran problem," the senior Israeli official says with apparent frustration.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 25
🧵An Iran expert is warning that Tehran’s response to US or Israeli strikes may go far beyond missiles and UAVs and could include ground invasion plans and activation of sleeper terror cells, potentially inside Israel and the United States. Join me as we break it down 👇
The warning comes from Dr. Yossi Mansharof of the Misgav Institute, who has closely tracked Iranian regime messaging for years. His assessment was published in a position paper obtained by Israel Hayom.
According to Mansharof, Iranian-affiliated media and regime-linked figures are openly discussing retaliation options including missile barrages, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and increasingly, a ground invasion of Israel.
Read 14 tweets
Jan 25
🚨 🧵An Iranian activist associated with the opposition with testimony depicting the situation in Iran, as of yesterday, based on conversations with family members and acquaintances living in Iran:
Many are attacked at night in their homes. For example, two nights ago in the Funk area (Chahardavari—Tehran), gunshots were heard. The forces searched for wounded who fled and hid in friends' homes. If a chase occurs, they shoot directly at unprotected civilians. Last night, also in Shiraz (Vasal area), during a night raid on the home of one of the protesters, he was thrown out of the window and killed on the spot.
In southern Iran, the situation is even worse: some have fled to the sea and are hiding on fishing boats, while drones and boats of the Revolutionary Guards are searching for them nonstop. In the cities of the Kurdistan, Mazandaran, Golestan, and West Azerbaijan provinces, people have been forced to live temporarily in the mountains.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
🚨 🧵 An Iranian opposition activist reports based on his sources about the general situation in Iran as of last night: A new wave of protests has begun in Marvdasht (Fars Province) and Kuhdasht (Lorestan Province), led by the families of the protesters who were killed.
📌 Throughout Iran, a situation resembling martial law prevails; Iranian security forces (Revolutionary Guards, Basij, and suppression forces) alongside non-Iranian forces (the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade and the Iraqi Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi) roam the streets, demonstrating power and instilling fear.
📌 Trade strikes continue in most cities. In some areas, the regime manages to temporarily break them under threats (business closures, bank account freezes, revocation of business licenses). The situation is volatile.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(