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Mar 15 22 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ Russian commentators are asking if the Russian government has shut down mobile Internet in Moscow due to fears of a coup attempt. With the shutdown now well into its second week, they express concern about the stability of the Putin regime. ⬇️
2/ Since March 5th, mobile Internet and even Wi-Fi in public places such as the Moscow Metro and State Duma have been shut down in central Moscow on the government's orders, for vague and unspecific security reasons. The shutdown has caused havoc for businesses and the public.
3/ This has caused widespread complaints and discontent, as discussed in the thread below. Only a few whitelisted services still work, with basic services such as taxi apps, payment terminals, maps, ATM cash withdrawals, and online banking all now blocked.
4/ The Russian government has said vaguely that the shutdown is to "ensure the security of our citizens," but rumours are increasingly spreading that the government fears a coup attempt, perhaps by elements of the security forces.
5/ 'kolobok1973' says that the shutdown is creating a looming feeling of an imminent coup:

"It takes boundless managerial stupidity and extraordinary social cretinism to manage, out of nowhere, to create in society the feeling of a coup d'état looming almost immediately."
6/ "Like in that joke—to scare yourself, because no one else is scared, and then aim to transmit this feeling of panic to others. So that not only you tremble, so to speak, but everyone else trembles along with you.
7/ "And why does society need this? Society has lived without this feeling for 32 years now [referring to the 1993 constitutional crisis], and it's not particularly eager for a repeat.
8/ "The blood was washed from Moscow's streets, the killer [i.e. then-President Boris Yeltsin] was buried (admittedly, a full 14 years after the bloodshed, which speaks volumes about how patient our people are and not prone to blood feuds), and we're living our lives.
9/ "But no, damn it. Once again, someone's naughty little hands are trying to recall well-forgotten passages.

Coups can be top-down, or they can result from, so to speak, a broad movement of the masses.
10/ "A top-down coup won't be thwarted by shutting down Telegram and YouTube (I can just picture high-ranking conspirators plotting their plots in Telegram or Facebook messages, and attaching YouTube recordings of the Marseillaise).
11/ "As for a broad movement of the masses, I'd like to remind those with playful hands on the power switch that the largest popular protests in post-Soviet Russia occurred before Telegram and Facebook, let alone the internet, had even been invented.
12/ "You don't need the internet for half a million people to take to the streets, like in 1993."

Political scientist Konstantin Kalachev sees the hand of overzealous 'ultra-conservatives' in the government, whom he says are bringing the system to the brink of destruction:
13/ "Continuing with the theme of ultra-conservatism, I'm practically certain that the unknown officials playing on the ultra-conservative side of the aisle hate the system deep down and are harming it according to the [allegedly Leninist] principle of 'the worse, the better.'
14/ "They're taking everything to the extreme in the hope that the system will one day collapse under the weight of this absurdity.

The "fifth column" of future liberalisation is now personally tightening the screws until the threads break.

And no one can blame them.
15/ "They were told to pray to God, but they smashed their foreheads on the floor [i.e. they were given an inch but took a mile].

This is not punishable.

Quite the contrary.

They'll even be rewarded for it."
16/ Vladimir Grubnik, writing as 'The Ghost of Novorossiya', fears that the Putin regime is repeating the mistakes of the former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych before his overthrow in 2014's Revolution of Dignity:
17/ "I can't shake the feeling that what's been happening over the past six months is particularly reminiscent of 2012-2013 in Ukraine.
18/ "Those were the years that laid the foundation for the situation which the Ukrainian Nazis and the collective West skillfully and successfully exploited.
19/ "It's terrible to witness the collapse of a state. But it's apparently even worse to see it happen again.

And to be completely unable to influence anything again.🤷‍🤷‍"
20/ Grubnik suggests that those responsible may not realise the harm they are doing:

"For those seeking a cunning victory, a cunning plan, and/or a cunning betrayal, we remind you of the basics for understanding the motivations of the modern establishment:
21/ "Do barnacles wish harm on a ship, woodworms on an oak tree, or tapeworms on an ox? They simply care for themselves and their offspring, but one fine day the ship sinks, the oak tree falls, the ox dies, and we begin to search for a terrible conspiracy." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Mar 15
1/ A superpower invades a small island off the coast of an enemy nation. After a short bombardment, marines seize and hold the island. 126 days later, they stage a humiliating retreat under constant fire from the mainland. This is the story of Ukraine's Snake Island. ⬇️ Image
2/ With reports that the US may be considering seizing Iran's Kharg Island, it's worth reviewing what happened in Russia's disastrous attempt to capture the strategic Ostriv Zmiinyi (Snake Island) off the south-western coast of Ukraine between February and June 2022.
3/ There are of course very important differences between the two islands, but the similarities are also worth discussing.

Snake Island is a small, barren rocky outcrop of some 0.2 km², located in the Black Sea 35 km off the coast of Ukraine. It has no permanent population.
Read 21 tweets
Mar 14
1/ Russia's air defences are doing great, according to Russian warbloggers. However, they say that those of Laos (a synecdoche for Russia, to evade censors) are crippled by shortages of manpower and resources, and an inflexible command and control system.
2/ Two popular Russian Telegram warbloggers discuss problems with the Russian air defence system, using carefully worded euphemisms to avoid getting into trouble with the authorities. 'RAG&E' writes:
3/ "The Russian Armed Forces rank second in the world military rankings, but its air defence capabilities are clearly and rightfully ranked first.

I think everyone agrees on this, so let's move on to Laos.
Read 22 tweets
Mar 14
1/ Russian journalist and analyst Yuri Baranchik asks plaintively: "why have they started terrorising the people?" He joins the dots between various recent actions by the Russian government, including the blocking of Telegram, and warns of a "1917 [or] 1989" scenario. ⬇️ Image
2/ Baranchik's lament is the latest in a growing trend of Russian commentators suddenly becoming aware that the repressive power of the state is being turned on 'loyal Russians', rather than just against the despised liberals or anti-war protesters.
3/ He writes:

"Why open a second front – against our own – when the SVO [Special Military Operation] is underway?

I've been analysing processes both domestically and globally for quite some time now – since 1994, that is, for over thirty years."
Read 22 tweets
Mar 13
1/ Muscovites are being locked into an ever-growing 'digital gulag', complain Russian warbloggers, as a still-mysterious mobile Internet shutdown in central Moscow enters its second week. The shutdown is reported to be causing huge commercial losses and inconvenience. ⬇️ AI-generated image of a frustrated man yelling at his mobile phone on Moscow's Nikolskaya Street
2/ Starting March 5th, Internet access in central Moscow was shut down, apparently on the orders of the Russian government. It has even extended to shutting down Wi-Fi on the Moscow Metro and the parliamentary Wi-Fi network in the State Duma.
3/ 'Blue Beard' says the city is being plunged back into the primeval darkness of 2007:

"The only app that works in the city centre in the evening, regardless of mobile internet conditions, is Yandex Music.

Meanwhile, Sberbank and T-Bank's banking apps have crashed."
Read 36 tweets
Mar 13
1/ In recent weeks, an entire genre has sprung up on Telegram of Russian bloggers suddenly realising that they live in a repressive dictatorship. They complain bitterly that they were "fools", they are being "enslaved", and forced to endure a "cultural counter-revolution". ⬇️ AI-generated image of weeping people looking at their mobile phones in front of St Basil's Cathedral, Moscow
2/ The forthcoming ban on Telegram – likely to be announced on 1 April – appears to have woken up many Russian bloggers to the way the Russian government is systematically attacking free speech. 'Under the ice' predicts catastrophe:
3/ "In general, the desire to confine all citizens of the country to a sterile information bubble, eliminating the use of inappropriate social networks, books, music, and films, will have the most devastating consequences for the state itself.
Read 28 tweets
Mar 12
1/ Russia simply isn't capable of doing in Ukraine what the US and Israeli air forces are doing in Iran, a prominent Russian warblogger admits. He blames the Russian air force's "organisational backwardness, underdeveloped intelligence, and lack of specialised aviation." ⬇️ Image
2/ Ukraine's aviation situation is starkly different to that of Iran's, despite facing a theoretically more powerful opponent. The Ukrainian Air Force is not only still flying in substantial numbers but has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Western aircraft. Image
3/ 'Military Informant' discusses why the Russian Aerospace Forces are still unable to achieve air superiority over Ukraine after over four years of full-scale war:
Read 17 tweets

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