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Mar 16 17 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Iran intends to leverage its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz to force the US and Gulf Arab states to accept an agreement in which Iran has set "appropriate political and security conditions", in which its security is guaranteed and US bases in the region are closed. ⬇️ Image
2/ Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran, has told the London-based Arabic newspaper The New Arab (Al-Araby al-Jadeed) that Iran will keep fighting and "will not return to the conditions that prevailed before the war." Image
3/ He says that a ceasefire agreement will not be acceptable without guarantees "that war will not resume, not if it gives the enemy an opportunity to fix its problems, such as the destruction of its radars or the shortage of interceptor missiles,…
4/ …only to return and attack us again. We will continue fighting until the enemy genuinely regrets its aggression, and until the appropriate political and security conditions are in place in the world and the region, and the threat and war."
5/ Ghalibaf says that Iran had prepared for a long attritional war, "because we knew we would come under attack. Based on our experience in the previous war, we knew how they would try to impair our operational capabilities. Therefore, we took the necessary precautions."
6/ He claims that "no one believes the American claims about destroying Iran's offensive capabilities anymore."
7/ "We have a sufficient stockpile of missiles and drones, and since this technology is indigenous, we are able to produce them at higher rates and at a much lower cost than the enemy's interceptor missiles."
8/ Ghalibaf contrasts the newly selected Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the deposed Bashar al-Assad and the abducted Nicolás Maduro: "Iran is not like Syria, where the leader abandons the country, nor like Venezuela, which succumbs to force."
9/ "All the people, from the Supreme Leader of the Revolution to officials and ordinary citizens, stand united in defence of Iran's dignity, independence, and territorial integrity. A nation that relies on divine providence cannot be defeated."
10/ He blames the United States for forcing Iran to attack its Gulf neighbours, saying that the US "established military bases there under the pretext of providing security, but they exploited these bases to attack Iran, forcing us to respond."
11/ "The destabilisation began with the United States on the soil of these countries, and it is only natural that we are in an existential war and compelled to defend ourselves."

He demands that the Gulf states should expel the US from their territories:
12/ "We believe that the region's security must be ensured by its own countries without external interference. Therefore, we believe this war will significantly alter regional relations, and we will not return to the conditions that prevailed before it.
13/ "We are prepared to conclude sustainable security agreements with the countries of the region that can provide mutual guarantees and create stable and lasting security for investors.
14/ "My message is the same as our new leader's: you granted America military bases to ensure your security, but they have become a threat to your security because they betrayed you...
15/ This war has proven once again that these [Gulf Arab] countries are of no real importance to the United States. If it has come to this, make a decisive move and close the American bases in your countries."
16/ From his comments, it seems apparent that Iran aims to keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz and bombarding Gulf Arab oil infrastructure until the Gulf states conclude that they need to push the US out in order to secure peace and end the damage to their economies. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 10
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️ Image
2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised. Image
3/ He was abducted on 8 April 2024 by soldiers of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' after being suspected of spying on the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. The men took him to a nearby abandoned mine repurposed as a torture centre. Image
Read 23 tweets
Jul 10
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️ Image
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
Read 30 tweets
Jul 10
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:

– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
Read 32 tweets
Jul 10
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.
Read 28 tweets
Jul 10
1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️ Image
2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
3/ Ukraine's heavy drones such as the Vampire drone bomber (called 'Baba Yaga' by the Russians) are a capability that Russia has consistently failed to replicate. Instead, Russian soldiers seek out downed Ukrainian heavy drones and repair them for reuse.
Read 29 tweets
Jul 9
1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️ Image
2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:

"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."
3/ "He's asking you to raise the issue of fuel supplies for mobile task forces. Considering that our new acting governor [Alexander Shuvaev] is a military man, I'm sure (or at least want to believe) that he or his aides are reading your posts and will be able to reach them…
Read 17 tweets

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