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Apr 24 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Mashovets Sumy a week ago

Russia continues developing its "buffer zone" operation on the Northern Slobozhanskyi (Sumy) direction, where forces of the Northern Grouping are attempting to expand cross-border incursions east and southeast of Sumy city. Rather than a single large breakthrough, the operation currently relies on multiple small infiltration thrusts across the border zone from Myropillia to Hrabovske. The apparent concept is to create several shallow penetrations, then later link them together into a broader foothold inside Ukrainian territory.Image
The offensive is unfolding through three tactical groupings. The northern group is attacking from the Demidovka and Popovka areas toward Prokhody and Myropillia, seeking to pressure the northern edge of the Ukrainian border defense line. The central group is focused on Pokrovka, where meeting engagements are underway, while also probing through forested terrain toward Novodmytrivka and further south toward Taratutyne. The southern group is advancing from Hrabovske toward Riasne, attempting to outflank Ukrainian defenders from both the north and south, including movement along the Korova River and local road approaches.
At present, Russian central and southern penetrations may have linked into a single connected salient, but the northern thrust has not yet joined them. Fighting remains active along the Prokhody–Maryine line and around Myropillia, where Russian forces appear to be operating mainly with small assault detachments rather than holding firm control of settlements. This suggests limited manpower density and continued Ukrainian resistance in the northern sector.
Territorially, Russian gains remain modest. The only clearly significant settlement reportedly taken so far is Hrabovske, while overall penetrations average roughly five to six kilometers into Ukrainian territory. Battles continue for Novodmytrivka, Taratutyne, Pokrovka, and Riasne, as well as around Prokhody and Myropillia. This indicates the offensive has created tactical pressure but not yet a stable operational breakthrough.

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More from @M0nstas

Apr 18
Mashovets Kostiantynivka review

Russia has entered a critical stage of the Kostiantynivka campaign, concentrating forces from several army groupings in what appears to be one of its priority operational sectors. The immediate objective is to seize Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka, which would open the southern and southeastern approaches to the larger Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defensive agglomeration. To support this effort, Russian command has reinforced the sector with units from multiple formations — including elements drawn from AG Centre and AG Dniepr to supplement AG South own 8th Army and 3rd AC — indicating both the importance of the objective and the difficulty of achieving it with local forces alone.Image
The current offensive is developing along several converging axes. From the south, Russian troops advancing from Berestok pushed through an overgrown ravine to reach the southwestern outskirts of Ivanivka, while simultaneously massing infantry in Berestok itself in preparation for a larger infiltration into western Kostiantynivka via the T-0504 road corridor.
On the southwestern axis, Russian assault groups have been fighting for over two weeks along the Yablonivka–Stepanivka line, attempting to push through toward Dovha Balka, though so far only a tenuous foothold in the southern part of Stepanivka has been established. Further south, assaults continue near Pleshchiivka and Ivanopillia, likely intended to push Ukrainian defenders northward and secure the flanks of the main attack.Image
From the southeast and east, forces advancing from Stupochky, Predtechyne, and the Dacha area have achieved limited penetration into the outskirts of the city, where heavy fighting is reported near the railway station and residential streets including Kyivska and Odeska.
Separately, elements of the 150th and 20th MRDivs are pressing toward Druzhkivka directly along the Sofiivka–Raiiske and Rusyn Yar axes on the western flank. These movements suggest an attempt to compress Ukrainian defenses from multiple directions rather than rely on a single frontal breakthrough.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 12
Mashovets Huliaipole

Russian forces are trying to resume offensive momentum toward Huliaipole, while simultaneously stabilizing the situation on the Novоoleksandrivka axis after Ukrainian counterattacks.

On the Huliaipole axis, Russian troops achieved limited tactical gains south of the sector, advancing toward Verkhna Tersa and intensifying pressure along multiple directions. However, their progress remains inconsistent and slowed, especially due to Ukrainian resistance around key defensive areas like the Huliaichur river line and settlements forming defensive "triangles".Image
On the Novоoleksandrivka axis, the situation is more unstable. Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking, trying to expand their positions and threaten Russian flanks—particularly aiming to disrupt Russian operations by pushing toward Uspenivka–Temyrivka. These actions have forced Russian units to focus on holding ground rather than advancing.

Overall, the battlefield is highly fragmented, with frequent close-range fighting, infiltration by small infantry groups, and "mixed" frontlines. Russian forces are currently struggling to regain strong offensive tempo, while Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing advances and applying pressure on vulnerable sectors.Image
Russian command is expected to maintain its main focus on the Huliaipole axis, continuing attempts to break through toward the Orikhiv defensive area from the east and southeast. Reinforcements and reserves will likely be directed primarily to this sector to restore offensive momentum.

At the same time, on the Novоoleksandrivka axis, Russian forces will likely continue a defensive-stabilization role, relying on limited forces and localized counterattacks to contain Ukrainian pressure rather than launching major offensives.

The key variable is Ukrainian action: if Ukrainian forces manage to break through toward Uspenivka–Temyrivka, this could threaten Russian flank cohesion and force them to divert forces from the main Huliaipole offensive, slowing or even halting it.

However, if Ukrainian counterattacks remain limited, Russian forces will likely sustain gradual pressure on Huliaipole, aiming for incremental gains rather than rapid breakthroughs. The overall trajectory suggests continued attritional fighting, with the initiative depending on whether Ukraine can scale its counteroffensive efforts on the northern flank.Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 15
Season of Arrows: Russia's 2026 Offensive

The Season is open, and there have been many valuable threads and articles covering individual fronts, both recent and historical. Before diving into the details, it is worth stepping back to examine the broader operational picture. Image
Russia is currently operating five Army Groups along the front line, with an additional Northern Screening Group whose primary purpose is border raiding, harassment of AFU positions, and fixing Ukrainian forces in place.

AGs act separately but will be forced to cooperate.
The major objective of Russia's 2026 offensive campaign should be assessed as Kramatorsk. The prerequisites for this operation are nearly complete. The secondary objective is Zaporizhzhia, an axis that has been partially disrupted by AFU counter-operations. The third objective is border consolidation — expanding and formalizing the buffer zone into Ukrainian territory.

Three Russian Army Groups are expected to converge on the Kramatorsk operation, Two at Zaporizhzhia, and whatever Skirmish Army will do.
Read 17 tweets
Feb 28
Striking February Image
5060 Drones, 288 Missiles (including 116 Ballistic missiles), 6224 Bombs. Image
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182552 FPV, 88564 Barrages, 2425 MLRS.
Barrages leveled at 3000 a day, becoming a niche tool similar to MLRS. Image
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Read 5 tweets
Jan 21
A system designed not to last, but to win time

Look at the battlefield as a system of crumple zones - areas deliberately designed to fail under pressure while absorbing as much damage as possible, still protecting the vital nodes behind them. Image
Ditches and earthworks define the overall pattern of this system, but the actual defense relies on a constellation of strongpoints of varying size. These positions are meant to hold for as long as conditions allow and to be abandoned when necessary. Their value lies not in permanence, but in the time, attrition, and disruption they impose on the attacker.Image
Such a system is inherently imperfect. It may fail for many reasons: manpower shortages, command-and-control friction, logistics constraints, or degraded operational awareness. These risks are not exceptions- they are expected variables under current conditions. The design accepts failure at the tactical level in order to preserve operational coherence and prevent strategic collapse.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 1, 2025
GSUA
Russians made 5976! assaults at 229 settlements - 59 settlements werent mentioned since October, 36 were mentioned for the first time;
extended by 531km2: capturing 468km2, gray out 62km2. Image
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One of the most attack Intensive months led to mediocre results in exchange of 31190 ivanZ in infantry friendly conditions. Image
Image
Attack distribution by directions.
Undefined share has significantly increased, as well as Toretsk.
Novopavlivka spilled on Huliaipole.
Kharkiv activities - decreased. Image
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Read 4 tweets

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