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Smirkley Profile picture
@Smirkley
Apr 24 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Germany just released 2025 crime data.

Overall, Algerian nationals commit crime at 18x the rate of Germans and nearly 100x the rate of Japanese nationals. 1/11 Bar chart, Germany 2025, overall crime by nationality excl. immigration offenses, as multiple of German rate (1,770/100K). Japan 0.19×, Korea 0.35×, Indonesia 0.38×, Philippines 0.51×, Finland 0.68×, Guinea 7.54×, Moldova 7.57×, Gambia 7.93×, Georgia 11.11×, Algeria 18.40×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Murder 🇩🇪 2025:
Tunisia: 27× German rate.
India, Spain, Austria, Pakistan, UK and others zero murder suspects in 2025 across combined 840K+ residents. 2/11 Alt: Bar chart, murder suspects/100K, ×German rate (0.7/100K). India 0×, Spain 0×, Austria 0×, Pakistan 0×, UK 0×, Georgia 14.17×, Sweden 15.61×, Algeria 16.80×, Lebanon 18.08×, Tunisia 27.34×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K. 0 = no suspects recorded.
Manslaughter 🇩🇪 2025:
Algeria 43×, Gambia 28×, Tunisia 24×.
UK, Thailand, Philippines, Switzerland & Japan: zero. 3/11 Bar chart, manslaughter suspects/100K, ×German rate (1.5/100K). UK 0×, Thailand 0×, Philippines 0×, Switzerland 0×, Japan 0×, Somalia 14.82×, Guinea 17.48×, Tunisia 23.59×, Gambia 27.62×, Algeria 43.02×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Rape & sexual assault in 🇩🇪 2025:
Guinea 21×, Gambia 19×, Algeria 16×.
Korea & Finland: zero suspects. Indonesia 0.31×, less than a third the German rate. 4/11 Bar chart, rape & sexual assault/100K, ×German rate (10.9/100K). Korea 0×, Finland 0×, Indonesia 0.31×, Slovenia 0.34×, Ireland 0.46×, Iraq 8.74×, Afghanistan 10.53×, Algeria 15.62×, Gambia 18.81×, Guinea 21.37×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Robbery in 🇩🇪 2025:
Algeria 111×, Libya 50× the German rate.
Japan & Indonesia: zero robbery suspects. Korea: 0.11×, 1,000× less likely than Algerians. 5/11 Bar chart, robbery suspects/100K, ×German rate (22.7/100K). Japan 0×, Indonesia 0×, Korea 0.11×, Mexico 0.18×, Philippines 0.19×, Morocco 25.78×, Georgia 29.92×, Tunisia 32.10×, Libya 49.87×, Algeria 111.12×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Residential burglary stats in 🇩🇪 2025:
Georgia 120×, Algeria 83× the German rate.
Korea, Japan, Cameroon, Indonesia & Finland: zero burglary suspects. 6/11 Bar chart, residential burglary/100K, ×German rate (7.4/100K). Korea 0×, Japan 0×, Cameroon 0×, Indonesia 0×, Finland 0×, Libya 18.60×, Tunisia 19.34×, Albania 33.23×, Algeria 83.48×, Georgia 119.88×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Violent crime stats in 🇩🇪 2025:
Algeria 38×. Libya 20×.
Japan: 0.13×, less than 1/7th the German rate.
A Japanese national in Germany is 300× less likely to be a violent crime suspect than an Algerian. 7/11 Bar chart, Germany 2025, violent crime suspects per 100K as multiple of German rate (157.8/100K). Japan 0.13×, Indonesia 0.19×, Korea 0.32×, Philippines 0.38×, Finland 0.40×, Gambia 13.83×, Tunisia 14.46×, Guinea 15.79×, Libya 19.65×, Algeria 38.42×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Dangerous assault data 🇩🇪 2025:
Algeria 32×. Libya 19×. Guinea 15×.
Japanese nationals 0.10×, 1/320th of Algeria's rate. 8/11 chart, Germany 2025, dangerous assault suspects per 100K as multiple of German rate (127/100K). Japan 0.10×, Indonesia 0.21×, Korea 0.36×, Philippines 0.36×, Finland 0.39×, Gambia 13.38×, Tunisia 13.43×, Guinea 15.23×, Libya 18.53×, Algeria 32.41×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K
Pickpocketing in 🇩🇪 2025:
Algeria 1,559× the German rate. 1 in 40 are suspects in a single year!
USA, UK, Thailand, Kazakhstan & Philippines: zero pickpocketing suspects in Germany. 9/11 Bar chart, pickpocketing/100K, ×German rate (1.6/100K). USA 0×, UK 0×, Thailand 0×, Kazakhstan 0×, Philippines 0×, Georgia 84.84×, Tunisia 155.23×, Morocco 231.10×, Libya 316.27×, Algeria 1,559.35×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Shoplifting in 🇩🇪 2025:
Algeria 76×, Georgia 61×, Moldova 31×. Japan: 0.19×. The Japanese shoplift at 1/400th the Algerian rate. 10/11 Bar chart, Germany 2025, shoplifting suspects per 100K as multiple of German rate (175.8/100K). Japan 0.19×, Korea 0.54×, Philippines 0.58×, Thailand 0.58×, Indonesia 0.67×, Tunisia 19.10×, Libya 22.66×, Moldova 30.81×, Georgia 60.97×, Algeria 76.25×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
Drug trafficking in 🇩🇪 2025:
Guinea 83×, Algeria 80×, Gambia 55×.
Korea, Mexico, Ireland & Finland: zero drug trafficking suspects in 2025. China 0.13×. 11/11 Alt: Bar chart, drug trafficking/100K, ×German rate (14.5/100K). Korea 0×, Mexico 0×, Ireland 0×, Finland 0×, China 0.13×, Libya 39.59×, Tunisia 41.05×, Gambia 55.01×, Algeria 79.64×, Guinea 83.09×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. Pop. ≥14K.
2025 German Crime Statistics are by Nationality.

These figures are based on official 2025 German police data and the rates calculated using 2024 official resident data.

Notes:
Doesn’t include illegal aliens in the base rate (illegal immigrants), only registered residents. This can skew the rates.
Breakdown is by nationality (current citizenship), not ethnicity or country of birth.
German nationals include migrants who have German citizenship and their children.

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More from @Smirkley

Smirkley Profile picture
Apr 25
Germany published 2025 crime data (BKA PKS) broken down by nationality. By request, I grouped them into 11 regions.

Violent crime:
East Asians commits violent crime at 0.46× the German rate.
MENA+ is at 8.43x. 1/ world regions in Germany, violent crime suspects per 100K as a multiple of the German rate (158/100K), sorted lowest to highest. East Asia 0.46×, SE Asia 0.84×, South Asia 1.15×, W. Europe 1.48×, Americas 1.54×, E. Europe 2.63×, C. Europe 2.80×, C.Asia/Caucasus 3.18×, Balkans 3.72×, Sub-Saharan Africa 6.57×, MENA+ 8.43×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026. AZR 2024. @smirkley
Overall crime 🇩🇪 2025:
East Asia is the only region below the German rate at 0.67×.
MENA+ (3.96×) & Sub-Saharan Africa (3.91×). 2/ Overall crime rate by region, excluding immigration offenses, as multiple of German rate (1,770/100K). East Asia 0.67×, SE Asia and South Asia both 1.01×, Americas 1.60×, W. Europe 1.66×, E. Europe 2.17×, C.Asia/Cauc 2.51×, C. Europe 2.96×, Balkans 3.38×, Sub-Sah. Africa 3.91×, MENA+ 3.96×. BKA PKS 2025, Apr 21 2026.
Murder 🇩🇪 2025:
South Asia records 0× murder suspects — no recorded cases among India & Sri Lanka residents.
MENA+ murders at 7.09× the German rate. 3/ Bar chart, 11 regions, murder rate as multiple of German rate (0.7/100K). South Asia 0.00×, SE Asia 1.06×, Americas 1.09×, East Asia 1.19×, E. Europe 1.70×, W. Europe 2.10×, C. Europe 2.58×, Balkans 3.78×, Sub-Saharan Africa 3.92×, C.Asia/Caucasus 5.69×, MENA+ 7.09×. BKA PKS 2025, April 21 2026. Destatis AZR 2024. @smirkley Charlie Smirkley
Read 12 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
Apr 21
What closes the ideology-mental health gap?🧵

Education actually doubles the gap. Thus the gap isn’t caused by uneducated conservatives refusing to seek help. 1/5 Chart GSS mental health showing showing three ideology groups (Liberal Chart showing showing three ideology groups (Liberal, Moderate, Conservative). Now marriage control., Moderate, Conservative) split into yellow (risk) and green (protective) bars. Per-subset r and p shown in notes. Education: BA+ amplifies gap (r=-0.296 vs -0.155
The mental health gap is stronger among above-median earners. 2/5 Chart showing showing three ideology groups (Liberal, Moderate, Conservative) split into yellow (risk) and green (protective) bars re mental health. Per-subset r and p shown in notes. Income control.
The ideology-mental health link barely moves within the marriage subgroup. 3/5 Chart showing showing three ideology groups (Liberal, Moderate, Conservative) regarding mental health. Now marriage control.
Read 5 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
Mar 16
NYC spends more per homeless person than the median NYC household earns. $81,705 per person in FY2025.

And $81,705 is a floor. It excludes supportive housing (~$500M/yr), mental health response teams, and NYPD encampment costs.

The city projects ~$97K per person in FY2026. NYC spending per street homeless person from FY2019 to FY2025 with FY2026 projected. Blue solid line rises from $28,428 in FY2019 to $81,705 in FY2025 — higher than the median NYC household income of ~$76,000. Dashed blue extension projects ~$97,000 in FY2026. Black dashed line shows inflation-adjusted real dollars ending at $65,890. Black note box states this is a floor estimate excluding supportive housing (~$500M/yr), mental health co-response teams, and NYPD costs. Bottom stats: population +26%, total spending +262%. Source: NY State Comptroller DiNapoli, March 2026.
Spending per homeless person since 2019:
NYC +187%, SF +190%, PDX +430%, LA +480%. Average: +320

Floor estimates.

Homeless pop over same period: +13%

Spending up ~320%. Problem up ~13%. Homeless spending since 2019 has surged.
LA: ~$10K per homeless person in 2019. ~$62K in 2024. +480%.

LA County homeless pop: +23%.
RAND’s count finds LA’s official figures understate the pop by 32%.

Floor estimate, excludes LAPD, mental health teams, county and state spending. Los Angeles homeless spending per person from 2019 to 2024 in LA. Rises from $10,000 in 2019 to ~$62,000 in 2024
Read 6 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
Feb 16
GSS data on politics by ancestral origin, grouped into “Heritage American” tiers among early Euro settlers/immigrants + all others:

A: English, Scottish, German, Dutch
B: French, Scandi, Swiss, Austrian, Belgian
C: Italian, Irish, Polish, Czech, Hungarian, Russian
D: All others heritage Americans and Politics and Party ID
Not only are heritage Americans the most conservative, but individually the Dutch, English, Germans, and Scots are the most conservative.

Note where the natural conservative Indians are: second last. Conservative, moderate, and liberal by ethnicity
The Dutch, English, Germans, and Scots are among four of the most Republican ethnicities. Republican by Ethnicity
Read 6 tweets
Smirkley Profile picture
Jul 8, 2025
You will not believe these charts on male youth crime in Germany by nationality. (If a group isn't included in a chart, it's because the data was N/A.)

1. Algerian male juveniles are 50.52 times more likely to be suspects in Street Crime than Germans. Algerian youth are 50.52 times more likely to be suspects in Street Crime than German
2. Algerian male juveniles are 73.54 times more likely to be suspects in theft crime than Germans. Algerian male youth are 73.54 times more likely to be suspects in theft crime than Germans.
3. Algerian male juveniles are 93.19 times more likely to be suspects in Shoplifting than Germans. Image
Read 8 tweets

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