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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Apr 26 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Keane: If kinetic operations resume, everyone influencing them is target one.

The [Hormuz] blockade is holding, the US now has twice the power in the region it had when the war started, and Israel is replenished. That is why the blow available now is absolutely significant. 1/
Keane: Tehran thinks it made progress by forcing the US into a pause and ceasefire after closing Hormuz.

That only encourages it to drag the talks out. In its mind, the longer this runs, the more pressure builds on Trump to make concessions he never wanted to make. 2/
Keane: The more flexible political figures have been sidelined. The foreign minister has little power.

These talks reflect the views of the head of the IRGC, and these are bona fide hardliners. The men with the guns are the dominant power in Tehran now. 3/
Keane: They will absorb suffering far beyond anything we think is tolerable because they do not care about the suffering of their people.

Their goal is simple: stay in power and preserve the regime. That is where they are coming from in these talks. 4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 27
NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations. 15 months ago Trump promised to stop the war in one day. Today analyst James Sherr: “We find ourselves largely where we began in the negotiations.” 1/ Image
Zelenskyy has “lost 80% of his illusions” about Trump’s support. Ukrainians believe they are holding their own militarily and that any resolution “will take place on the battlefield, if at all.” 2/
Trump and his team are preoccupied with Iran. Witkoff and Kushner are planning another trip to Moscow — again without stopping in Kyiv. Zelenskyy said this week: “It’s disrespectful to come to Moscow and not Kyiv. It’s just disrespectful.” 3/
Read 12 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 27
Petraeus: Iran is unquestionably much weaker militarily.

The US and Israel have badly damaged its leadership, missile and drone production, navy, air force, air defenses, security headquarters, logistics bases, and further damaged the nuclear program. 1/
Petraeus: Military objectives largely have been met, but Iran could still emerge strategically stronger if Hormuz stays shut.

It cannot be acceptable for Iran to turn the strait into an “Iranian canal” and charge tolls for ships going in and out. 2/
Petraeus: Reopening Hormuz is a very challenging mission.

The defender has to be perfect, while the attacker only has to succeed every few days to destroy confidence. Hit two or three ships, and owners decide they are not taking that risk. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 27
On Budanov’s desk sits notebook labeled “List of Assholes 2026.”

He is a Hero of Ukraine, former head of military intelligence, now head of the Presidential Office. Babel tells his story. 1/ Image
Born in Darnytsia, raised in an ordinary family. His father engineered parts for the Soviet space program at the Kyiv Radio Plant. He studied at a school with Jewish classes funded by the Jewish community. He learned Hebrew and still keeps ties with Ukraine’s chief rabbi. 2/
He dreamed of being a soldier from childhood — his grandfather told family legends about intelligence officers. He trained in Crimea every summer, hiking 30-40 km with a backpack and climbing cliffs. That passion would later save his life. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 27
Stubb: Russia gained under 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2025 at a cost of 400,000 killed or wounded.

At this pace, taking Donetsk could cost another 800,000. Militarily, this is failure. Putin’s goal remains all of Ukraine; only a threat to his regime may change that.

1/
Stubb: Putin’s war has been a strategic failure. He wanted to take Ukraine, but pushed it deeper into Europe and NATO.

He wanted to stop NATO expansion, but got Finland and Sweden instead. He wanted global power — yet Russia’s influence is fading from Syria to Iran.

2/
Stubb: Air defense is changing fast as Ukraine reshapes warfare with drones and missiles. We need to diversify more.

And we’re reaching a point where Europe, the US, and Gulf states may need Ukraine’s military know-how more than Ukraine needs them.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 26
Kasparov: Wars end when the cause that produced them is removed. In Ukraine, that cause is Putin’s regime and the imperial policy of Putin’s Russia.

As long as that regime survives, the war will not end. That is the whole answer. 1/
Kasparov: Trump is about Trump, and about money for Trump and his entourage. No real peace talks are possible there.

Witkoff and Kushner are not diplomats. Ukraine was right to refuse territorial concessions, because those concessions could have been catastrophic. 2/
Kasparov: European politicians already understand that the threat now reaches even NATO countries

EU is preparing for war, but still fears saying it aloud. Only the military defeat and collapse of Putin’s regime give a chance for peace in Europe and a settlement in Ukraine 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 26
Kasparov: “Russian Taiwan” is a metaphor, but the split is already real.

Hundreds of thousands of Russians have broken with Putin’s Russia, including legally, yet got no new status. Their documents expire every day. Europe needs one cardinal solution: recognize that we exist. 1/
Kasparov: “Russian Taiwan” is not about moving everyone to some island. Territory is secondary

The point is legal recognition for people who cut ties with Putin’s Russia and are stuck in limbo, instead of begging country by country for visas, exemptions, and documents. 2/
Kasparov: If Europe gives us legal status, we must offer something in return.

Nothing in Russia will change while Putin stays in power, and Putin stays in power while Russia can keep waging war. Only Ukraine’s victory gives us that historic chance, so we must help Ukraine win 3X
Read 4 tweets

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