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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Apr 27 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Stubb: Russia gained under 1% of Ukrainian territory in 2025 at a cost of 400,000 killed or wounded.

At this pace, taking Donetsk could cost another 800,000. Militarily, this is failure. Putin’s goal remains all of Ukraine; only a threat to his regime may change that.

1/
Stubb: Putin’s war has been a strategic failure. He wanted to take Ukraine, but pushed it deeper into Europe and NATO.

He wanted to stop NATO expansion, but got Finland and Sweden instead. He wanted global power — yet Russia’s influence is fading from Syria to Iran.

2/
Stubb: Air defense is changing fast as Ukraine reshapes warfare with drones and missiles. We need to diversify more.

And we’re reaching a point where Europe, the US, and Gulf states may need Ukraine’s military know-how more than Ukraine needs them.

3/
Stubb: Ukraine’s most credible security guarantee today is its 800,000-strong armed forces and a capacity for modern warfare unmatched in NATO.

The tide has turned: Europeans need Ukraine more than Ukraine needs them.

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 29
Trump’s Iran war is pumping billions into Russia’s war machine.

Russia earned €713M per day from fossil fuels in Mar and collected €7.4B in taxes — a 2-year high as oil prices surged >50% after the war began, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
Sanctions pressure weakened at the same time.

The US eased restrictions on Russian energy exports for 2 months to stabilize markets, allowing Moscow to sell more oil at higher prices with smaller discounts. 2/
Volumes rose, but revenues surged faster.

Oil exports increased ~16%, while seaborne crude revenues jumped ~115% in Mar, as global prices climbed and Urals discounts narrowed. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 29
Ukrainian combat veterans are now training German troops for a future war with Russia.

Frontline soldiers arrived in Germany before Easter to train Bundeswehr units in drone warfare and modern combat, as Berlin prepares for a possible Russian attack by 2029, Kyiv Post. 1/ Image
Training runs across core combat schools.

Ukrainians teach at tank, engineer, and unmanned systems centers, with artillery schools next. Focus: drone use, protection, and integration into armored and artillery units. 2/
Instructors are not theorists.

“These are not staff officers,” Freuding says — they are soldiers with direct battlefield experience, the only force in Europe with large-scale combat experience against Russia. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 29
Bolton: The US military did sink all Iranian mine-laying ships. But Iran is using fast boats, each carrying one mine and able to swarm tankers with man-portable rockets.

Trump has said for weeks the Iranian navy was destroyed. Except for these boats. 1/
Bolton: I wouldn't have entered into this ceasefire — it purely benefits Iran. They were getting pounded for six weeks.

When the bombing stops, they regroup and reorganize. Military pressure is what moved Iran at all. When you relent — they see American weakness. 2/
Bolton, on Trump's claim of regime change in Iran: It obviously hasn't happened. The Revolutionary Guard holds what they call purification campaigns to ensure no deviations from what the ayatollahs dictated.

That's not regime change. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 29
Von der Leyen: Europe doubles down on support for Ukraine, while Russia doubles down on aggression.

We also adopted the 20th sanctions package. The sanctions are biting so hard that the Kremlin is restricting internet and free communication, creating a digital iron curtain. 1/
Von der Leyen: This is Europe’s second energy crisis in four years. In just 60 days of conflict, our fossil-fuel import bill rose by more than €27 billion without one extra molecule of energy.

The answer is obvious: cut imported fossil-fuel dependence and electrify Europe. 2/
Von der Leyen: Any peace agreement will have to restore full and permanent freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

It will also have to address Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. The consequences of this conflict may echo for months or years. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 28
Rubio: It’s unclear whether new Ayatollah has authority.

The key questions are his credibility versus his father, whether succession should be hereditary, if he has the clerical credentials, and whether he’s actually making decisions or someone else is.

1/
Rubio: Iran is run by radical Shia clerics and is deeply fractured. Talk of “moderates vs hardliners” is misleading — they’re all hardliners.

Some focus on running the state, others are driven by ideology, including the supreme leader and his circle.

2/
Rubio: Iran’s nuclear program is the core issue. The regime seeks to export its revolution and dominate the region through proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Even now it uses Hormuz as economic leverage—imagine that power with nuclear weapons.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 28
China is rebuilding how occupied Ukrainian territories function — step by step.

It installs 6,000 Huawei base stations, replaces dollars with yuan, and keeps factories running with Chinese engineers. no ownership, no formal role, but everything depends on Chinese tech, Babel. 1/ Image
Telecom comes first. Huawei supplies servers, antennas, routers.

Russia cuts Ukrainian networks when it captures a city. Miranda-Media reconnects it using Chinese infrastructure — across cities, villages, and roads. 2/
Industry: Karansky quarry in Donetsk operates on Chinese equipment. Chinese engineers maintain it. Without them, production stops. Russia uses the output to build roads and housing. 3/
Read 11 tweets

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