Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.
Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/
Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.
Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/
Applebaum: Putin and the regime have become paranoid about Ukraine’s ability to hit Moscow and maybe even target leaders.
That is why the internet keeps going down in Moscow and other cities and why, around the May 9 parade, it is almost completely shut. 3/
Applebaum: Ukraine suddenly has cards.
It has drone technology Gulf states want, EU funding now guaranteed well into the future, and it no longer looks like a pitiful victim people help because they feel sorry for it. It looks like a player in world politics. 4/
Applebaum: We do not know who would replace Putin if he disappeared overnight, died, fell out a window, or was whisked away.
We also do not know how that person would be chosen. Whatever follows his exit is likely to bring instability inside Russia. 5X
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Ukraine’s 20-somethings are reshaping its war machine and displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense.
A Defense Ministry staffer in her early 20s found Denmark had earmarked the wrong shells for Ukraine and secured 15,000 long-range rounds, NYT. 1/
The staffer works under Oleksii Antoniuk, 24, deputy head of the ministry’s cooperation department.
Oleksii: “If not for her, this wouldn’t have happened.”
Young Ukrainians under 30 are gradually displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense. 2/
The shift runs through Ukraine’s war machine.
Twentysomething engineers design drones, young entrepreneurs turn prototypes into production lines, and recent graduates at the Defense Ministry cut red tape to speed weapons to the front. 3/
Applebaum: Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 partly as a direct challenge to NATO and the United States.
Moscow wanted to prove there was no Western alliance, that Ukraine was not a real country, and that Europe and America would not come to its defense. 1/
Applebaum: Russia wanted to show that it alone was the sovereign power in Eastern Europe and would decide what happened there.
Instead, it was surprised: the United States and a united Europe pulled together and proved that a democratic world still exists. 2/
Applebaum: Negotiations will become possible only when Russia decides to stop fighting and accepts that it cannot achieve its main goal—the destruction of Ukraine as a nation.
Russia has not reached that point. Putin has never withdrawn that objective. 3/
Applebaum: The war with Iran was clearly a war of choice. Israel had proposed this kind of action to previous US presidents, and they declined.
They understood the immediate danger to international shipping and especially to the oil and gas industries. 1/
Applebaum: Trump now appears to regret the war, or at least has no interest in continuing it.
He is seeking an agreement that could resemble — or even be slightly worse than — the Obama-era deal, while the claim that Iran was about to get a bomb does not add up. 2/
Applebaum: Trump failed to account for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or retaliating against Gulf states, and then expressed surprise.
Yet anyone who had studied a war with Iran over the past two decades had already identified both risks as obvious possibilities. 3/
Applebaum: Trump’s relationship with Erdoğan grows out of his business dealings in Turkey.
He invested there, believes those investments went well, and his family company still has interests there — or could. He sees the world in personal, transactional terms. 1/
Applebaum: Trump does not think like a traditional American president representing US interests, the Western alliance, or the democratic world.
He asks what is good for him personally. He likes Erdoğan, and that is the simplest way to understand their closeness. 2/
Applebaum: Trump states his personal view and assumes that it therefore becomes the policy of the United States.
But the American system is more complicated than the president’s preferences: Congress may still restrain the weapons sales he wants to make to Turkey. 3X