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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 9 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.

Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/

Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.

Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/

Applebaum: Putin and the regime have become paranoid about Ukraine’s ability to hit Moscow and maybe even target leaders.

That is why the internet keeps going down in Moscow and other cities and why, around the May 9 parade, it is almost completely shut. 3/

Applebaum: Ukraine suddenly has cards.

It has drone technology Gulf states want, EU funding now guaranteed well into the future, and it no longer looks like a pitiful victim people help because they feel sorry for it. It looks like a player in world politics. 4/

Applebaum: We do not know who would replace Putin if he disappeared overnight, died, fell out a window, or was whisked away.

We also do not know how that person would be chosen. Whatever follows his exit is likely to bring instability inside Russia. 5X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 10

Ukraine is the biggest winner of the Iran war.

Ukraine struck 40% of Russian oil exports while Gulf states — burned by China and Russia backing Iran — are now signing defense deals with Kyiv instead, writes Con Coughlin in The Telegraph. 1/

Zelenskyy estimates total gains at 117.6 square miles — about 10% of the territory Kyiv lost to Moscow in 2025. Russia recorded almost no territorial gains for the first time in two and a half years. 2/

Russia’s spring-summer offensive has little prospect of seizing Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donbas. Russian casualties are averaging around 35,000 per month. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 10

“The only thing worse than no tanks in Red Square are burning tanks in Red Square.”

A European diplomat in Moscow captures how fast Putin’s authority is collapsing inside Russia, writes Mark Galeotti in The Times. 1/

For the first time in decades Putin cancelled armored vehicles from Saturday’s Victory Day parade. Moscow is ringed with Pantsir-S missile launchers on rooftops, electronic warfare stations and drone jammers. 2/

The mere risk of an attack changed Putin’s plans. There is no evidence Kyiv planned a strike on the parade — but that did not matter. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 10

A demilitarized zone in Donbas remains an unrealistic option — Le Monde.

Zelenskyy: “The Russians want us to leave Donetsk Oblast. The Americans are looking for a solution that is not a real withdrawal — they want to create a demilitarized zone or a special economic zone. 1/

Russia claims full annexation of both Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts — including territory its army does not fully control. It occupies nearly all of Luhansk and 80% of Donetsk. 2/

Ukraine refuses to cede any land currently under its control and insists the current front line must divide the two sides in any ceasefire. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 10

Patriot batteries guard the runway at Rzeszów airport — this small regional airfield 55 miles from Ukraine became the main hub for military aid to Kyiv.

Up to 40 cargo flights per day. Wounded soldiers treated here before flying to European hospitals — El País. 1/

On February 24, 2022 Ukraine closed its airspace. Rzeszów went from 10-12 commercial flights per day to 20-40 large cargo planes daily — Hercules, Boeing 747s, Antonov An-124s from around the world. 2/

The airport had 300 staff. It now has 550. Fuel consumption jumped from 100,000 liters per week to 500,000-600,000 liters per day. Lines of trucks stretched endlessly. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 10

Fiona Hill: Scrapping the long-range missile program undercuts deterrence against Russia in the short and medium term.

It also pushes more countries to develop these capabilities themselves, creating the risk of a wider arms race. 1/

Hill: Putin’s position is slipping, but we should be careful about calling it a tipping point.

He has always proven resilient in the Russian context, and his extra security precautions are not irrational given the war and attacks on leaders. 2/

Hill: Ukraine has become a system-changing war. It has changed the nature of warfare itself.

Ukrainians are now the most battle-hardened army in Europe, with capacity, lessons, and equipment that others want to learn from. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 10

Fiona Hill: We are in a realm of magical and wishful thinking.

Iran is another personalized standoff between Trump and whoever his counterparts are, with each side trying to show who has the edge. Everyone else is watching this spectacle with real alarm. 1/

Hill: It will be very hard for any other state to corral Trump into a negotiation track.

This is all about how Trump thinks he is being viewed on the world stage: whether he looks strong, in control, and able to impose his will. 2/

Hill: Trump does not think about consulting allies because he does not think of them as allies. They are supplicants.

He sees them as subcontractors in his project, not partners in a larger enterprise. 3/