UK energy policy is economic self-harm. Labour banning new North Sea drilling licences + fracking — right as the Strait of Hormuz crisis hits. Yet oil & gas extraction is one of our MOST productive industries. A thread (1/10)
UK per capita energy consumption has fallen 2.4% per year — faster than most G7 countries. Result? GDP per capita growth is a miserable 0.4% annually. Energy is the foundation of modern economies. Without abundant supply, we stagnate. (2/10)
Globally, GDP per capita grows ~2% with rising energy use. Asia boomed by embracing energy-intensive growth. Britain chose “energy austerity” instead — and now uses less energy per person than Poland or Malaysia. This is a self-inflicted wound. (3/10)
The “productivity puzzle”? It’s largely an ENERGY problem. ONS data shows oil & gas extraction has productivity at 637% of the UK economy average. It creates SIX TIMES more value per hour worked than the rest of the economy. Yet we’re deliberately shrinking it. (4/10)
High-energy, high-productivity sectors are contracting:
• Mining/quarrying (oil & gas) GVA down 7%
• Refining productivity 384% of average
• Chemicals & pharma ~300% of average
Low-productivity service sectors grow instead. No wonder productivity is stuck. (5/10)
The human cost is huge: ~1,000 jobs lost per month in the North Sea. Hours worked in mining/quarrying down 9%. Refining down 14%. Grangemouth refinery closure (400 jobs) means we now import fuel and petrochemicals — even as global shortages bite. (6/10)
For a government that claims to be “pro-growth”, banning domestic production of our most productive industry is madness. It kills high-value jobs, scares off investment, and makes us more dependent on volatile imports. (7/10)
Restarting exploration and development would:
☑️Create well-paid, high-productivity jobs
☑️Boost GDP growth
☑️Improve energy security
☑️Reverse the productivity crisis.
Energy abundance drives prosperity. Scarcity kills it. (8/10)
More domestic oil & gas is the way to solve our dual productivity and investment problems. In other words — Drill Baby Drill. (9/10)
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Renewables funds like Greencoat UK Wind (UKW), Octopus Renewables (ORIT) & The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) market themselves as low-risk investments. But plunging share prices and wide discounts to NAV suggest management in denial. A thread (1/11)
Labour govt changes: ROC indexation cut (RPI to CPI) & Carbon Price Support removal in 2028. Funds took NAV hits but downplayed them. New Wholesale CfDs offered as partial offset. These are minor vs. what could come from Reform & Tories. (2/11)
Bigger risks: Tories & Reform pledge to scrap Net Zero elements. Remove CPS + ETS (carbon taxes boosting wholesale prices), abolish ROC scheme early. This would slash revenues for ROC-dependent assets far more than current tweaks, further impacting NAV & share prices. (3/11)
Yesterday, @EnergyUKcomms caught a bad case of Net Zero Derangement Syndrome by claiming that removing carbon taxes will increase bills. A thread (1/n)
They first claimed that decarbonisation and economic growth go hand-in-hand. But data from OWID shows that faster decarbonisation leads to slower growth (2/n)
They went on to claim that scrapping the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) would increase gas demand by 25%. This claim would mean almost doubling the amount of gas used for electricity, which is implausible (3/n)
The Government said they reduced the indexation rate for renewables because they'd been over-compensated. That's not even half the story.
New analysis shows wind farms have already received more in subsidy than the build cost, enriching overseas investors. A thread (1/n)
Starting with the six offshore wind farms that have received most subsidies under the ROC scheme: Greater Gabbard, Gwynt y Mor, London Array, Race Bank, Sheringham Shoal and West of Duddon Sands (WODS). (2/n)
Greater Gabbard has received £2.2bn in subsidies but it only cost £1.4bn to build it (exc. OFTO sale proceeds). London Array has received £2.9bn in subsidies but net cost as ~£2.3bn. WODS received £1.8bn subsidies vs £1.1bn net cost (3/n)
🚨UK Net Zero & energy subsidies have exploded to £585 BILLION 🚨
Our taxes funding unreliable renewables, backups, carbon capture & subsidies to use the expensive energy. A new update to the Subsidy Control Database exposes the scale of the madness. (1/11)
Breakdown of the insanity:
- Renewables Obligation (ROCs): £104bn
- Contracts for Difference (CfDs): £102bn inc. £40bn for AR7
- £31bn for FiTs
In total over £260bn to subsidise renewables that don’t produce when we need it most, or FIVE Hinkley Point C’s (2/11)
Wind and solar are intermittent, so we pay another £72bn for the Capacity Market – backup power for when the wind doesn’t blow or sun doesn’t shine. And a further £1bn to subsidise making turbines. (3/11)
Ember, the people who came up with Miliband's promise to cut bills by £300 have been torturing the data to claim renewables saved money in March. Record CfD subsidies for March of £258m tell a different story. We're witnessing the dying embers of Net Zero propaganda (1/n)
It's true that gas prices spiked in March at the opening of hostilities with Iran, and electricity prices rose too (2/n)
But gas prices didn't rise by as much as 2022, and the impact on electricity prices was muted by a reduction in carbon costs, as Ember should know, because it's in their data (3/n)
Net zero advocates love to claim renewables are cheaper than gas by waving around Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) models from Lazard, IRENA, and the UK Government’s Generation Cost 2025 report. But these models are junk. Here’s why. (1/19)
LCOE sums up all capital and operating costs over a plant’s lifetime, discounts them, and divides by total electricity generated. Result: £/MWh or p/kWh in a chart like Lazard's below. Sounds scientific… until you look closer. (2/19)
Classic LCOE compared dispatchable sources (gas, coal, nuclear, hydro) that match demand. Now it’s used for wind & solar, whose output depends on weather, not demand. A midday solar kWh when supply>demand is worthless. Peak-hour gas power is priceless. LCOE ignores this. (3/19)