1/ Iran has reportedly assessed that Donald Trump is "mentally incompetent" and has incorporated psychologists into its negotiating team to adapt the wording of the proposed agreement "as if the recipient were a [mental] patient ... whose capacity is limited." ⬇️
2/ The Russian 'Political Report' says that "Iranian authorities have included leading psychologists in the negotiating team to review drafts of all messages before sending them to Trump."
3/ "This is not a supplementary measure, but a direct consequence of an internal assessment that the American president is mentally incompetent, whose reactions cannot be predicted by conventional diplomatic methods.
4/ "Psychologists have compiled a detailed profile of his thinking, and now the wording is being adapted as if the recipient were a patient whose perception is distorted and subject to sudden shifts.
5/ "Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are recording the same problem: Trump agrees to positions and then immediately reverses them, leaving no stable basis for continuation."
6/ The news outlet comments that "Iran cannot afford the additional layer of uncertainty generated by the unpredictable moves of the American president, who is approaching his 80th birthday."
7/ "Psychological assessment is becoming a tool to reduce the risk that a proposed proposal will be perceived through the prism of a momentary impulse or distorted perception.
The integration of psychologists upends the traditional logic of negotiations between countries.
8/ "Instead of relying on institutional procedures and predictable responses, one side now structures its entire preparation around the individual cognitive profile of the other.
9/ "This is not a rhetorical device or an exaggeration: Iranian sources explicitly assume they are dealing with a person whose capacity is limited and adjust their language accordingly...
10/ "This approach reflects the challenges that a personalised leadership style imposes on highly complex relationships...
11/ "As a result, negotiations become a process of constant adjustment to the perceptions of one party rather than a search for a sustainable balance of interests.
12/ "This creates a perpetual precondition for protracted cycles of tension, where any temporary lull remains hostage to Trump's individual idiosyncrasies rather than institutional guarantees." /end
1/ Ukraine is using quadcopter drones carried by uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) to hunt down and destroy Russian anti-drone teams in occupied Crimea, according to a Russian source. ⬇️
2/ Ukrainian drone carrier USVs have been observed in use in the Black Sea in recent months. The Russian warblogger 'Veterans' Notes' describes how they are being used to support Ukraine's middle-strike campaign, by suppressing air defences in the occupied regions:
3/ "Regarding mobile task forces (MOGs) on the peninsula, the enemy has begun actively hunting them. There have already been numerous cases of MOG crews coming under fire from Ukrainian drones and suffering losses. These attacks were carried out on the coast using FPV drones.
1/ The Russian government is a "great hypnotoad" that is trying to distract the population from the fact that things are bad and about to get worse, says Russian warblogger Anastasia Kashevarova. She complains that the government is attempting to "zombify people". ⬇️
2/ A common complaint among Russian warbloggers in recent months has been that the Russian government frequently but ineptly tries to play down the deteriorating situation with the Ukraine war, through so-called "anti-crisis" propaganda or simply not mentioning Ukrainian attacks.
3/ They point out that this is highly ineffective and erodes trust in the government, as anyone with an Internet connection can see – even on Russian pro-war Telegram channels – that things are not going well.
1/ Russian commanders are being accused of failing to ensure that their soldiers do not wear neo-Nazi and far-right insignia. The practice is said to be widespread. However, a crackdown is apparently underway, with offenders being sent to die in assault units. ⬇️
2/ Throughout the war in Ukraine, Russian soldiers have been photographed wearing unofficial patches representing extremist ideologies, such as death's-head insignia, Nazi runes, and the "black sun" Sonnenrad symbol.
3/ This reflects the appeal of far-right and neo-Nazi ideology among Russian nationalists. (Indeed, there is an entire neo-Nazi paramilitary group, the Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group (DShRG) 'Rusich', fighting alongside the Russian regular forces.)
1/ Russian warbloggers have steadily become bolder in calling for Russia's leadership to be replaced to overcome the current stalemate in Ukraine. Calling the current situation "hopeless", 'Verum Regnum' calls for new leadership in Russia so that it can win the war. ⬇️
2/ While well aware that open criticism of Vladimir Putin is still too dangerous a step, many warbloggers are willing to criticise "the system" in general terms or call out specific officials regarded as failing, such as Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov
3/ This kind of approach, which could be summed up as "the Tsar should replace his boyars", is clearly visible in what 'Verum Regnum' writes on Telegram:
"Do you know what a "hopeless situation" is? It's a situation where we don't like the simple, obvious way out."
1/ Russia's air defence teams are manned by "homeless people, alcoholics, deserters, disabled people, idiots", complains a Russian warblogger. In the face of continued failures to stop Ukrainian drone attacks, urgent investment in robotic defence systems is advocated. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Chronicle' argues that "recent incidents involving the use of attack drones against targets in Moscow and Voronezh demonstrate that the human factor is becoming the most critical vulnerability in modern air defence systems."
3/ 'Dead Heads' explains that Russia's mobile fire teams are attracting the wrong kind of recruits: "We're forming Mobile Task Forces (MOGs) and assembling them by units: homeless people, alcoholics, 500s, disabled people, idiots – why aren't they shooting down anything?"
1/ The Russian warblogger 'Fighterbomber', a retired Russian air force pilot, is taking heavy flak from other warbloggers for disclosing a fuel delivery to Crimea that the Ukrainians promptly blew up. "Go fuck yourself. Preferably holding hands," he responds. ⬇️
2/ On 17 June, in an apparent attempt to refute widespread accounts of fuel shortages in Crimea, 'Fighterbomber' wrote on his Telegram channel: "The audience is saying that fuel has arrived in Crimea. Lots of it. There's more coming. 😍"
3/ Three days later, Ukrainian forces struck the Kerch oil terminal's fuel depot, causing a major fire. An official Ukrainian Telegram channel trolled Fighterbomber by crediting the warblogger for the strike (it's unlikely that he had any influence on it).