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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Jun 29 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.

In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/
Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"

That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/
Hodges: Second — convoys can't move. Bridges into Crimea wrecked. Facilities on the peninsula destroyed. Crimea becoming untenable — not just for tourists, for the military.

Third — oil and gas exports to China, India dramatically reduced. Can't sustain the war economy. 3/
Hodges: A massive blow for Putin — people streaming out of Crimea, military getting out. At some point Ukrainians just take it. Not an amphibious landing — walk in because Russian forces will have left.

Russia's war economy is fragile. Artificially sustained. It will break. 4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 30
Russian forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Bucha during a month of occupation in 2022, leaving bodies in the streets and a mass grave by the church.

What happened there is why Ukrainians refuse to give up occupied land in any peace deal — Dominic Pino, Washington Post. 1/ Image
Ukraine retook Bucha so fast that Russian forces could not cover their tracks. The town looks like an American suburb, with stores, sidewalks, and a shopping mall.
It keeps a monument bearing the names of the murdered, where such a town should mourn fallen soldiers. 2/
Russia's account keeps shifting, from denying the murders happened to calling them a false-flag. Ukraine calls it genocide.
Pino has walked Dachau, a site built for genocide. Bucha is different. People there live ordinary lives, send kids to school, and watch TV before bed. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 30
Syrskyi: Putin ordered to calculate options for offensive operations, including from Belarus, to seize Kyiv and other territories.

I do not think Belarus’s leadership will now dare give its territory as a launchpad, but we account for this scenario.

1/
Syrskyi: Russia is testing forced contract signing in Penza region. Mobile groups gather men and force them to sign.

Moscow is adapting this model to spread it across Russia. They also recruit prisoners, people under criminal cases, and mercenaries to grow the army.

2/
Syrskyi: Russia’s grouping has not decreased: 722,000 troops with operational reserve.

But active assault directions fell from 13 to 7, with 4 main ones. Our strikes on logistics have cut Russia’s offensive potential. Enemy activity is down by about one-third.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 30
16-year-old Tihran Ohannisian moments before his death: "That's it, it's death, guys. Goodbye. Glory to Ukraine."

Russia killed him and his classmate Mykyta Khanhanov after they attacked Russian personnel in occupied Berdyansk on June 24, 2023 — United24.
1/
Russian soldiers had detained Tihran in September 2022, beat him in front of his grandmother, and tortured him with electric shocks for days.

Both boys remained under surveillance for months, formally charged with plotting to sabotage a railway, facing up to 20 years in prison.
2/
On June 24, 2023, the boys attacked Russian personnel on Berdyansk's seafront. Killed one soldier and one collaborator.

Russian forces killed Tihran and Mykyta shortly after. No attempt was made to detain them alive.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 30
Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.

Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/
Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.

Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/
Holland: Putin is fatally wounded by what's happening in Ukraine. That battle is going to be lost for him. But that makes him very dangerous, he might do something to distract from failure.

A village grab in Estonia or Lithuania testing Article 5. Or cutting North Sea cables. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 30
Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba on Lukashenko entering the war: Can't exclude it. He was close, exercises, running around in uniform. Then someone explained where the strikes would land. He reversed

Putin is pushing him again. Lukashenko understands, this is the end of his regime 1/
Kuleba on Poland-Ukraine rivalry: Not immediately, but it will go there. Poland will compete with money, we with security capabilities and audacity.

Together we'd dictate our will to Western Europe. I believed in that story very strongly. We are competitors, unfortunately. 2/
Kuleba: Poles are exactly the same as us. Two nations traumatized by history. Both built identity on the myth of victimhood — everyone hurts us, everyone's against us.

Now we've grown up, built muscles, and want revenge on everyone. This is not pragmatism, unfortunately. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 30
Kasparov on Georgia: An inclined plane has only one direction — down — and the speed always increases. After the 2012 elections, Georgia started sliding backward.

Today it is much closer to Russia and Belarus than to Ukraine or Moldova. I fear the situation is already tragic. 1/
Kasparov: Ivanishvili never stopped being a Russian oligarch. Putin says there are no former KGB agents — same applies here. No former oligarchs. Those connections are preserved.

Georgia's behavior is because they orient toward Putin and believe his power shields them. 2/
Kasparov: Power transition in Georgia will not happen through voting. Like Russia, like Belarus — it will be a collapse when the number of people ready to take to the streets exceeds critical mass.

100,000 on Rustaveli Avenue is a beautiful picture. It is not enough. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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