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Sam Korus Profile picture
@skorusARK
Oct 11, 2017 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1/ Ford says #autonomous should be hybrid 🤦‍♂️... bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Misses the fact that an autonomous car can have lower range because it can go charge itself & if you are increasing utilization...

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More from @skorusARK

Sam Korus Profile picture
May 14
1/ New Nuclear/Solar Blog.

Highest Level Takeaway:
1)There is a wide range of possible outcomes for nuclear from game changing cost declines to status quo.
2)Solar's trajectory is pretty clear, it's declining in costs (maybe not declining so much relative to what's possible for nuclear) and growing.

Keep scrolling for nuance...
2/Had we not over regulated nuclear it may have been the lowest cost source of electricity today.

BUT, that's not the world we live in. Nuclear costs skyrocketed while solar kept declining.

Now we are at an interesting point in time where regulation headwinds could become tailwinds.
3/If just comparing capital cost, even if nuclear costs had continued to fall in line with the trend in place before regulations derailed them in the 1970s, a quick glance would suggest that they still would not be as low today as solar on a cost-per-watt basis, but... Image
Read 8 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Mar 20, 2024
1/Here's a thread to send to people when they quote the media saying there is an EV slowdown. Add your comments/takes so it can be a useful resource.

Why is the media claiming an EV slowdown?
It's a case of missing the forrest for the trees.
2/Year over year EV sales growth is decelerating.
113% in 2021
59% in 2022
28% in 2023
That's the trees. It's the wrong thing to look at.

What should you look at? Image
3/Market share! Gas vehicle sales peaked in 2017.
And you know what happens with an adoption curve? Image
Read 7 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Feb 6, 2023
1/A lot of people talking energy storage/megapack so here is a quick thread for those wanting to follow along/if you want to contribute:

ARK's 2019 analysis sizing the energy storage market at $800 billion, but bigger if battery prices go below $150/kWh ark-invest.com/articles/analy…
2/Another good resource to look at is Lazard's levelized cost of storage: lazard.com/media/451882/l…

It has their key assumptions:
3/Battery prices are becoming easier to pin down, but with large stationary projects it's important to look at the balance of system costs.

An old McKinsey piece has a dated look at that breakdown:
Read 6 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Sep 14, 2022
1/Do we live in a linear world?

This is global battery electric vehicle sales.

The question is where do we go from here?
2/You can fit a diffusion curve to EV adoption quite well:
3/That diffusion curve suggests roughly 59 million EVs sold globally in 2027, which is in line with ARK's expectations.

A linear forecast of the past few years suggests ~21 million EVs sold globally and is in line with some other EV forecasts.
Read 4 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Jul 29, 2022
1/@VitalikButerin Would love to discuss and share our modeling.

It ultimately comes down to a different business model and lower/negative electricity prices.
2/One instructive analogy could be a Hollywood Studio vs Amazon Prime.

Hollywood studio needs hits b/c that's its whole business. Looks at Amazon Prime spending as irrational on cost per viewership. But Prime is part of a suite of services.
3/If Prime video content attracts and retains marginal customers across its entire suite of services, which extend far beyond video streaming, then Amazon’s content spend—seemingly unprofitable from a Hollywood mogul’s perspective—is entirely rational.
Read 4 tweets
Sam Korus Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022
1/What is current demand for vehicles?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey asks: Do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a new vehicle?

More people than ever said "Bad Time" going all the way back to 1961.
2/But automakers claim demand is strong and point to low inventory on dealer lots.

But is inventory on dealer lots? How much inventory is in people's driveways after buying a car to avoid public transport during COVID?
3/As semiconductors arrive, can selling a low number of cars quickly be linearly extrapolated to selling a high number of cars quickly?

There is also a shift in consumer preference towards electric vehicles. Will the incremental buyer want a gas-powered vehicle or an EV?
Read 6 tweets

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