Pakistans two Largest IPPs, combined 5000MW+ Capacity

A thread on HUBCO & KAPCO

🔸 HUBCOs Growth Story 💯

🔸 Profits ❌ ROE Component ✅

🔸 25% Dividend Tax on 2015 IPPs major Value Killer‼️

🔸 KAPCO PPA Expiring soon .. what to expect 🤔

🔸 Circular Debt & CTBCM outlook First of all, some Ground Knowledge about HUBCOs multiple Projects

Old Projects

1) 1292 MW Furnace Oil Hub Plant. 100% owned. Contract Expiring in 2027

2) 225 MW Furnace Oil Narrowal Plant. 100% owned. COD 2011

3) 84 MW Hydel Laraib Project. 75% owned. COD 2012

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Operator of 🇵🇰🇵🇰 Largest Gas Field & Backbone of Food Security

🧵 Thread 🧵on Mari Petroleum

⚡️Magic of Two Tiered Gas Pricing
 
⚡️Earnings will 2X with Sachal Gas Processing Project
 
⚡️Cash Earnings much better than Peers
 
⚡️Worth Investing ?? Valuation

#KSE100 #PSX Mari Field is truly a National treasure

More than 10 TCF Gas reserves at a relatively shallow Depth of 1000-2000m 💯💯
 
Despite 55 years of continuous production, Mari Field has reserves of approx. 5TCF still remaining (15 years at current production levels)
 
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Business Tycoons @MAliTabba & Arif Habib shared some insights into 🇵🇰🇵🇰 Economy/Business

Here are some Important 💎💎💎

1) Foreign Inflows only solution to our Boom/Bust Cycle

2) Handicaps for our Industries 

3) Businesses are Good but Govt Finances are Bleeding

🧵 Thread 🧵 No way Pak Economy can achieve Sustainable Growth until Foreign Inflows reach $85-90Bn. There are 3 sources👇🏼

Exports
Remittances
FDI

We have to generate an additional $15-20Bn in Foreign Inflows. Govt should not push for Stimulus/Growth until this gap is closed

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How to Invest in IPPs (Power Sector) 💰💰💰

1)Understand the PPA (Power Purchase Agreement)

2)Never Ever Look at GP Margins %%

3)Build Late Payments into your Valuation

4)Keep an Eye on Disputes between IPPs and Power Purchaser
 
🧶🧶 Thread 🧶🧶

#PSX #KSE100 #IPPs PPA is the Holy Grail to value an IPP. Most Important aspects include  

➡️Total Project Cost

➡️%age of Equity in Total Cost

➡️ Return on Equity

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Today I will be Busting @MiftahIsmail "Too Good to be True" Electricity Claims

⚡️Using Monthly Variable Cost of the top 60% Cheapest Plants is WRONG ❌❌

⚡️Capacity Payments of 1200Bn will be allocated in Budget❓

⚡️Soultion👉🏻Reduce T&D Losses✅✅

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Top 50% Electricity is Generated at Rs2/unit Variable Cost (VC)

👉🏻25% is Hydel ➡️ Almost Rs0 VC

👉🏻Next 15% is Nuclear ➡️ Rs1 VC

👉🏻Another 15% from Wind, Solar, Local Gas and Local Coal ➡️ Rs5 VC

Then Expensive Coal, RLNG, FO & Diesel kick in and take Avg VC to Rs8-9/unit

2/4

Many Cement companies down 50% from Highs of last year, now is a good time to review this Cyclical Industry for future Investments

♦️"Cement cannot Travel"

♦️Coal and Power usage 👉🏻 Low Cost producers

♦️Use Cyclicality to your advantage

🧶 Thread 🧶

#Cement #KSE100 #PSX Cement is a very low value Commodity ($40-$50/Ton) and cannot absorb Road Freight Charges of $30(South to North). Plants are setup in proximity of Demand Centers

It is vital to Bifurcate North and South players. Local Sales, Exports of both regions should never be combined

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