Beyond the £5bn net savings, the govt was very cagey about placing numbers on the welfare reforms this week. Why? Because they are in the hands of the Office for Budget Responsibility - OBR - who have tended to be pretty sceptical about the impact of employment schemes 1/

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1902674939334840555

Sounds to me like there is plenty of worry across govt that the OBR is simply not going to deliver what the govt wants (and needs) on the welfare reforms- which could then leave them with a policy that hits as many disabled people, but without as much positive as hoped for 2/

Sorry to rant but the whole “boys club” thing irritates me. Of course there is a lot of focus on the Keir's, Morgan’s and (admittedly numerous) Matt’s but as I’ve discovered Keir Starmer would NOT be PM without the senior women in the operation 1/ Firstly the entire campaign was field directed by a woman. Yeah yeah- totally true that they put two men in charge (don’t they so often!) but Hollie Ridley basically ran the mechanics of the campaign 2/

There is no question that Keir Starmer has been pretty ruthless in terms of changing the party. But I've not been totally convinced that Diane Abbott fit the same mould. Speaking to those (who share Starmer's more centrist politics) & were close to this process there were...1/ ...other reasons why they (and some closer to Abbott) thought it might be a good time for her to step down. There are other candidates in Hackney who some in the party were excited about & a strong sense (on both sides) that Diane Abbott wanted to retire anyway 2/

Supreme Court makes very clear that this is not a political judgement. It is purely a legal decision and says it’s been expedited because of public interest. The legal rule is an asylum seeker cannot be returned to country of origin- refoulement 1/ The Court of Appeal argued (2-1 majority) that there was a risk of refoulement with Rwanda- but one judge- the most senior disagreed 2/

Thread- Birmingham council has been issued a 114 notice which means no new expenditure is allowed, apart from statutory. Snr figures tell me they’ve been effectively under these conditions for 2 months- and a big driver? Failures on equal pay 1/ itv.com/news/central/2… Recently the council (which has previously had to sell off the NEC and pay a billion pounds) admitted it faced potential liabilities on equal pay of up to another £760m. The sums are jawdropping. Because of years of female dominated jobs being paid less well than male ones 3/

Little thread on Liz Truss piece. Clearly her vision was & is for a lower tax - lower spend economy. But as Pm I felt she sold the first half of that equation but not 2nd. I remember asking if spending cuts eg in health & education were the inevitable consequence & she said no 1/ And clearly it did not add up to say we’d cut taxes to that extent but not also spending- and so that was a credibility gap. Now behind scenes - as she admits and as we reported at the time- there were plans for huge pension / benefits savings. Raising pension age but also…2/

Jeremy Hunt takes to his feet - and insists that his Autumn Statement is about tackling the cost of living crisis. IE its all about pushing down inflation. He talks about protecting the vulnerable saying “to be British is to be compassionate”. 1/ Hunt says three aims - starts with stability. Says the OBR says “global factors” are the main cause of inflation. Lays out the figures for other countries - interest rates in US, inflation elsewhere 2/

Thread on onshore wind 👇
On ITV News just now and at 10 watch our exclusive piece on political row over onshore wind w @JackAbbey97 Lord Deben, chair of Climate Change Committee, warns that govt needs to change position on onshore wind in England if we’re to achieve net 0. 1/ Labour reveal their new policy. @Keir_Starmer tells me he will strip away planning rules that allow small groups or even individuals to block new windfarms. Says will involve “persuading some communities to get on board”. Wants to double onshore wind by 2030 2/

💥 NEW: hearing more about possible Cabinet appointments under Liz Truss. I’ve heard that Kit Malthouse is being lined up to take over as education secretary. Penny Mordaunt as leader of the House of Commons (as full Cabinet member). 1/ Michael Ellis is one Rishi Sunak supporter who’ll be full Cabinet member (and Robert Buckland though he swapped to Truss during campaign). Have heard that Priti Patel was offered a role but said if Home Secretary was not available she’d rather someone else had a go 2/

Thread on what happened in Tiverton- Lib Dems had 400-odd activists here yesterday, leafleted almost every home & spoke to 20,000 people. They said 3 issues dominated: 1- Tiverton High school 2- Dentistry- fury at not being able to get NHS dentists and 3- partygate. 1/ On the high school- @JackAbbey97 and I went there. The building is in terrible condition- & new build promised since 2009. A lead campaigner for it said there was impression that safe Tory seats in SW were being neglected by Govt in favour of funding for the north & midlands 2/

RMT and Network rail talks are going to take place tomorrow. Some sources saying they are hearing more positive sounds around them. In terms of pay- the figure 4% been mentioned by a few folk. Obvs that wd be below what Union is demanding but an increase on previous offer Ministers say money (largely govt money at moment) would only be in return for modernisation. RMT say they are not worried about modernisation but it is about losing thousands of jobs from industry and pay. Govt sources insist any changes wd be done thru voluntary redundancies.

A little thread on a few interesting things I’ve heard tonight. The first is that some folk say they have received a letter from Sue Gray warning they will be identified in her report. Told some are “livid” as they didn’t realise they would be 1/ itv.com/news/2022-05-1… Sources say those named (assuming it does go ahead as some in govt anti it) will be done so in a factual way- eg it was X’s leaving do. Any only most senior. 2/

Exc: Boris Johnson 'considering 90,000 job cuts' in civil service. Pm and Chancellor met on Monday to discuss plans that will start with recruitment freeze and vacancies not filled | ITV News itv.com/news/2022-05-1… The govt has spoken of big cuts to Whitehall headcount before but pm and chancellor and Steve Barclay met to agree to plans and talked about returning to 2015/16 levels - when civil service was dramatically smaller 2/

Thread on protocol: Sources I speak to on EU side suggest that any serious retaliation would only actually happen if this bill becomes law. There will be lots of threats in meantime, and possibly restarting legal action, but any trade war would be a long way down line 1/ Also while there is a lot of heated talk right now of “ripping up the protocol” the UK is really talking about rewriting parts of it- with proposals it claims would respect integrity of single market (clearly there is big disagreement here) 2/

A piece of legislation in the Queen's Speech will be something we originally thought would come late last year- the Troubles legacy bill, which has been hugely contentious - particularly among victims' groups - because it will provide protection from prosecution. Hence delays 1/ Brandon Lewis has talked previously about the plan for a statute of limitations - that would be applied equally for both sides. This has caused upset for family groups who want to continue pursuing justice, and those who think equivalence is unfair. Sounds like... 2/

Explained today on #peston what to think about when interpreting Friday’s results-and trying to map them towards gen election. One is the comparison point. Labour tanked in 2019 general election but vote share in 2018 (comparison for most seats up) was neck and neck w Tories 1/ Which is why so many psephologists stress that in some places Labour standing would still be progress. I ran through some councils that will help us draw conclusions. Eg Bury council- if Labour retains its majority on council that would indicate 2 MP seats could be won by them 2/

A THREAD on what I’ve learned about the asylum policy unveiled today by govt to tackle small boat crossings. Firstly there was “despair” among some home office officials. Told the mood was terrible this morning, with fears of resignations 1/

https://twitter.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1514649146493485069

There are the worries you might expect (will it work? Impact assessment wasn’t convincing on others measures; is it safe to send folk to detention in Rwanda; is it fair) but a big one is the cost-and fears it cd balloon to billions with not just hundreds but thousands of staff 2/

The plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda is obvs all about trying to look tough when it comes to the small boats crossing from Calais. A lot of Tory MPs- including many in “red wall” seats tell me it’s no 1 issue for constituents. But will it actually work to deter people? 1/ The other part of this policy is in the Borders bill that puts in place legislation that criminalises people arriving in Britain via small boats. Some Tory MPs actually threatened to pull support for the bill cos they think with human rights act in place it’s not tough enough 2/

Here’s my take on today. Tory WhatsApp groups very quiet today. Those who helps shore up Boris Johnson support 3 months ago say it would be full panic if this happened then, but very different mood now 1/

https://twitter.com/itvnewspolitics/status/1513944766311976973

This is partly timing - it’s recess and MPs aren’t together discussing all of this… but also for some time they’ve wanted to move away from this as focus shifted to Ukraine and to cost of living. 2/

It’s very clear that the invasion of Ukraine has dramatically shifted the mood within the Conservative party. Sir Roger Gale-who was an early critic of the PM- says domestic issues will have to wait because anything that destabilises this govt would be positive for Putin 1/ Another Mp messaged: “For me personally the situation in Ukraine has changed a lot for me. Both because that’s where I think all the focus should be and secondly the PM in my view has handled it very well. I also think the number 10 team is much stronger.” 2/

NEW: In order to massively expand booster scheme NHS has published letter that says GPs will be able to delay some routine health checks for patients up to March 2022. 1/ The letter says that hospitals must expand capacity for delivering boosters within their hubs - that the military will come in to help with logistics, and that student medics will also help the effort when not training 2/