#Sail Q1FY22 profits were 94% of full Fy21 profits. Would have easily surpassed but for lower volumes of 3.3. MT (oxygen related shutdowns) compared to 4.35 MT in Q4fy21. Two numbers to focus are Rs 20,250/ tonne Ebidta and a 5063 cr debt reduction. Now how to value a cyclical: Sail traded at an Enterprise value/ Ebidta of 6x during the pandemic. Market cap was 10k cr in March 2020, while debt was 54k cr total Enterprise value came to 64k cr. Assume that Sail trades at the same EV and debt is reduced to 15k Cr at the end of fy 22. Then …..

Only way to beat China is by being economically stronger. How does a $2.7 trillion economy take on a $14 trillion global bully? Get growth back, use it to upgrade our defence make India an integral part of the globe. Everything else is crap. #ChinaIndiaFaceoff #chinaindiaborder Countries that have progressed globally stay away from wars, conflicts and hatred. U.S does all the wars but thousands of kms off its coast,Japan and South Kores don’t disturb N. Korea. Germany hasn’t fought a war since WW2...

Govt. policy matters little for the big sector leaders. They’ll become bigger & stronger. It’s the bottom 5%-10% of businesses that face extinction. Sometimes the situation demands us to spend money & get out of a crisis. Can we do it? @PMOIndia @narendramodi @nsitharaman @RBI Let’s privatise our PSUs.Privatisation will get a better price-disinvestment won’t.The country needs immediate cash and if it doesn’t the small and mid-size players will be killed. They need cash grants/wage support not loans. In distress you repay back loans not take more of it.

Till May 04,2020 we would have lost 35 days of Fy 21. Any extension beyond that date will play havoc on the nation’s finances. This is what our financial set up looks like but with a 25% drop in tax-revenues. It looks scary.

. @narendramodi @PMOIndia @nsitharaman @FinMinIndia A severely undesirable and predictable outcome is a steep drop in tax collections and an increase in welfare expenditure. Quite possible but equally detrimental.

Collectively, both have the power to shake up any economy and it can hit in several ways. And we are no different.

1992 to —
1) Market won’t let you survive. If it does, the fellow investors will ensure that you wrap up everything for safety. No one has every archived anything worthwhile playing safe.

2) Everyone would wait for clarity but once clarity emerges bhaav bhi clarity ke honge.

https://twitter.com/nigel__dsouza/status/1245579208056647682

3) Someone who’s lost 40% will be happy because someone else is down 41%. Someone who couldn’t anything will be pleased just because his neighbour is down 40% on. 50x. That’s still 30x from the bottom. The public finds great satisfaction in seeing everyone else lose.

All large investors started small. If the corpus was built on salary or non-market related income then you always seek risk averse strategies. If you start on inherited wealth you’ll do below average to avg returns. You have to start poor. Having nothing to lose is an advantage !

https://twitter.com/gouse7558/status/1213658366225960960

The first 10 lakhs needs a lot of self control. You have to stop spending to reach here. The next 15 lakhs needs skill. You have to grow what you’ve saved. From 25 lakh to 50 lakhs it’s self control. You have to stop thinking of buying a home, car, Holiday, TV etc.

India needs to grow at 11% nominal cagr to move from a 2.9 trillion economy to 5 trillion by 2025. This means an ideal growth of 7% GDP & 4% inflation.

But can we reach 5 trillion with the present set of systems & legislations? No. @narendramodi @PMOIndia
@nsitharaman Can we do it with Big Bang reforms - especially on the taxation and capital markets front ? Yes

The capital markets are the life and blood of our financial dreams. Maharashtra elections would have swung the other way had the Govt. given our capital markets a better treatment.

Happy Diwali. It’s like asking how many minutes do you wait before taking a heart attack victim to hospital? While buying a growth stock needs skill selling it requires both skill and experience plus the emotional detachment to sell something that’s down 10% to 20% from the top.

https://twitter.com/aceaps/status/1188322992725446657

Strangely, the public jumps in when valuations start to becomes cheap and that’s the time the professionals log out ! Ask yourself, how many bought Infosys, Wipro, HUL, L&T, Unitech, BHEL, Bharti, Pantaloon, Page, Gruh, Sun Pharma, Eicher when they were expensive?

This small/midcap bear market is our 2nd most brutal in history. In 1992 you knew the Harshad was caught. In 2000 NASDAQ was bleeding & Ketan had been trapped. This time it was the system cracking - a box full of fire crackers catching fire. You don’t know which one bursts when! Post the fall in 1992, EOUs, FMCG and software took over the leadership. Anything to do with ‘EOU’ was bid up. Post 2000 the large pharma companies like Dr Reddy’s starting moving and so did a lot of PSU divestment candidates.

Yesterday @narendramodi’s approach at the Bloomberg New York summit indicates that a lot of things are in the offing at @PMOIndia . Maybe listing in the Bloomberg Barclays global aggregate bond index. Personal Income Tax; DDT; LTCG; large scale PSU privatisation. @nsitharaman Need an all round approach to reach a 5 Trillion USD economy by 2025. If we get there people might forget what Manmohan Singh did in 1991. But all these measures can work together in cohesion only. For instance, we need privatisation to take care of the Fiscal deficit.....

For a company paying 35% tax earlier now 25.17% the PAT will jump by 15.12% . As this isn’t a guidance but an increased cash flow till eternity the P/E even if it expands by the same ‘if not more’ should lead to a stock price move of (1.1512 x 1.1512)-1=32.52%. Lot more to come? In the above case I have assumed a growth of 15%. So the 15% saved in year one grows at 15% which means that it grows to 17.25 in year 2 and 19.83 in year 3.

Growth is a function of RoE (1- payout ratio) which means higher the RoE and lower the payout ratio - more the impact !

Need multi pronged approach:

1) Embark on a big privatisation scheme. There’s no opposition let’s not misuse this mandate to get rid of our past sins. A company in Govt hands and a company in private hands will add at least 5% - 8% to productivity and growth.

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/1167672990877835265

2) As we privatise we will get foreign capital on negative interest rates. Why wouldn’t anyone raising capital at negative rates buy out a stable NHPC, Coal India? By running inefficient PSUs the Govt has already privatised the sector so why not the companies?

The commentary around money market & the NBFCs :

Teacher: Can anyone prove that a cat has 3 tails?
S: Any cat has more tails than no cat
T: Obviously
S: And no cat has 2 tails
T: Yes
S: So any cat must have 3 tails.

Moral: You can prove anything in life if you want to. Even in the press conference what the @RBI was referring to was to avoid an ILFS kind of a situation. It wasn’t indicating anything negative - that is if anyone’s read the text. ALM mismatch would affect the small marginal players not the ones who are the leaders in the space.

Bear markets don’t end till the poster boy of the preceding bull run goes down in history with all his stocks moving back to the starting point💀
1992 - Harshad Mehta - ACC & Others
2000 - Ketan Parekh - HFCL, DSQ, & Others
2008 - ADAG Group - RCom, RCap & Others
2018 - ??? Mazda industries in Harshad days, DSQ, Silverline, HFCL etc in Ketan Parekh days and a host of infra & real estate companies in 2008 were all a product of hope. It has always been about a ‘cheerleader’ an ‘operator’ or the ‘pied piper’ the ‘protagonist’ and his dubious stocks.