My Bots do crazy things, never try this at home. #AI #ENSEMBLE it’s Logarithms fault. Luck is serial correlated #DeleteMeta #ICantBreathe #Peace
Jun 20 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Everyone is lining up to short memory.
It's the most natural trade on the board — the most cyclical industry in tech just printed its steepest up-cycle ever, and you sell cyclicals when the numbers look best, not worst.
The instinct isn't stupid. It's just solving the wrong cycle.
The crowd is mistaking the end of the supply-displacement phase for the end of the cycle. They are not the same thing.
1/6
Not financial advice.
The numbers everyone is fading:
— DRAM contract prices +90-95% QoQ in Q1, another ~60% on Q2
— NAND now outpacing DRAM for the first time this cycle at ~75%
— memory went from ~20% to ~35% of a PC's bill of materials in a year
Triple, then triple again. The reflex screams "top."
But Wave One wasn't a normal inventory cycle. It was a structural supply shock — and that changes where it ends.
2/6
Not financial advice.
May 1, 2021 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
So the majority is wrong the correct answer is answer 2.
1/If the non levered investment Max drawdown is noted MD then cumulative return of levered investment is
2*R if MD>-50% else 0.
But what’s more interesting is how wrong the statement is. Indeed for the 2 levered investment to generate 2*R is has to be levered potentially more.
Mar 7, 2020 • 27 tweets • 4 min read
Some extracts from the Lancet article on #COVID19:
1/Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals;
2/hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn. In our view, COVID-19 has developed into a pandemic, with small chains of transmission in many countries and large chains resulting in extensive spread
