LOCAL ELECTIONS: Biggest ballot box test b4 GE is nearly upon us. A dry run for Lab to test GE strategy, here's what Lab's looking for & intel on key races (Tees Valley Mayor don't think they'll win, moving resource to W Mids - on knife edge) 🧵

news.sky.com/story/what-doe… 2,600 council seats up for grabs, while much attention in run-up's been on whether results'll trigger a full blown leadership crisis for Tories, what’s prob more relevant to public is what elections tell us about prospect of a majority Lab govt. What does success look like? 2/

Misery for No 10 this week; Anderson defection & now engulfed in donor racism row. What next for Sunak? Spoken to number of senior MPs who tell me mood in party terrible (one said they “exhausted by the psychodrama”), PM’s authority shot, but no big move against him… 🧵1/ Authority: Some fuming Badenoch broke ranks & intervened in racism row - PM then had to row in behind. There was Tugendhat & AMT on defence spend (h/t @haynesdeborah) or Bowie on Budget. “If he had strength he’d have sacked Bowie,” said one. “He’s no control & lost collective responsibility” 2/

Heading back from Mancs after Tory conf & now thinking about Labour. What their view ? Sunak had no option to be “change” candidate but it’s “simply not credible”. The more he talks about change, the better for Labour. He’s a doing their work for him 1/ Interestingly, one Labour source also told me that the change message points to May election, arguing that the strategy of being the change guy - difficult already - cannot work in a year’s time. 2/

Spiky final exchange: Starmer to PM:
"This is the price of having a tired, worn out govt by a PM who boasts he's never had a working class friend. He's smiling his way through the CoL crisis, gloating about success while waiting lists grow...1/ KS to PM: "How does he think the Tories can possibly the answers Britain needs when the whole country has already told him they're the problem, not the solution? 2/

Committee now going through six events, reminding public about the rules and guidance, what Johnson knew about those gatherings & the compliance with those rules and guidance 1/ Event 1: 13 November 2020. Lee Cain leaving event. Photos show lack of social distancing.
Johnson. NO, rules allowed mitigation where not possible 2m distance
Meeting "had to happen". BJ says he "believed" this leaving do "essential for work purposes" 2/

Johnson opening statement
- I'm here to say, hand on heart, I did not lie to the House. Those statements made in good faith on basis of what I honestly believed
- There was "near universal" belief at No 10 was rules and guidance were being complied with 1/ Johnson opening statement
- On when he corrected the record: near belief in No 10 rules complied with, when it emerged that wrong after SG and Met inquiry, I corrected the record
- "Couldn't have anticipated outcome 'cos I genuinely did not know what the outcome would be"

Preparing for the Johnson showdown. Four hour hearing coming up. What are the bones of what we’re looking for today? Here’s a summary of the arguments:

1/ Privileges committee March 3 report says evidence strongly suggests breaches of rules would be “obvious” to Johnson [1/] 2/ Committee summary of position:
- HoC may have been misled when BJ said
a] No rules or guidance broken (Dec 8)
b] Failed to tell HoC about own knowledge of gatherings
c] Relied on assurances rules not been broken (given he had no assurance guidance followed/personal know) 2/

Johnson to give evidence to Privileges Committee w/c March 20. Cttee report: evidence suggests breaches of coronavirus rules would have been “obvious” to BJ. Details 4 occasions when “HoC might have been misled”

Busy day -follow it all in our Politics Hub news.sky.com/story/politics… Johnson's response to Privileges Committee 24-page initial report: Says he was "vindicated" and "clear from this report that I have not committed any contempt of parliament"

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1631634551297437696?s=20

UQ @leicesterliz on care home testing: "Ministers repeatedly claimed they'd put protective ring around care homes but leaked WhatsApps suggests nothing can be further from the truth
Can [Whately] confirm CMO said govt should test ALL those going into care homes in April 20? Whately: I'm shocked and disappointed in the tone [Kendall] is taking today says govt followed the advice at the time. Points out in mid-March 3k tests/day which went to NHS frontline/testing in hospital and care homes with symptoms

This week on Beth Rigby Interviews, I spoke to former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who quit over the Ukraine war. He’s now warning West to stop giving Moscow “concessions” & believes Putin could employ nuclear weapons. It was chilling & hard to process but worth your time 1/ Bondarev here on the prospects of nuclear escalation in war against Ukraine. He believes there are plans to somehow employ them & doesn’t think many generals or military officers would refuse + speaks more broadly about the knock on effect of nuclear weapons’ proliferation 2/

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1583836895154679809

Johnson be back in No 10? Interesting chat with Cab min who thinks BJ cld hit 100 threshold, & if he does thinks he’s back. “I’d expect him to get to 100. Even MPs who resigned from his govt were on terrace y’day telling colleagues they’d now back him & members definitely will” But 62 MPs resigned from his administration last July after deciding he wasn’t fit to be PM. So many surely will have misgivings. One minister on the return of Johnson tells me: “I still remember why it ended last July”

As I was saying on TV, politics of this letter ominous for @trussliz. Braverman not only doesn’t pledge support (Kwateng did), but critical of PM: “Had serious concerns abt govt’s commitment to honouring manifesto” + “pretending we haven't made mistakes…is not serious politics”

https://twitter.com/suellabraverman/status/1582762282626736128

Braverman excoriating here:
“Pretending we haven't made mistakes, carrying on as if everyone can't see that we have made them, and hoping that things will magically come right is not serious politics. I have made a mistake; I accept responsibility; I resign”

In another dizzying day of politics, where does PM stand after #PMQs? 1/This hand-to-mouth govt where PM being bounced into decisions. Committing £5.6bn in spending (pensions lock) 2 days after her CX refused to do this. Clearly no option politically but speaks to PM weakness 1/ MPs like policy, but speaks of chaos, w PM, CX, cab not seeming joined up (No 10 told me afterwards that PM/CX agreed u-turn but For Sec just hrs b4 refusing to commit) Minister told me colleagues unhappy about doing broadcast because no faith in any line sent out to defend 2/

Before a very big week, a few thoughts on back of conversation this weekend. 1/ Told by a cabinet source Truss had no option but to sack Kwateng because was made clear to her he’d lost confidence of markets and her only hope of steadying the ship was removing him 1/ 🧵 But what follows from that is obvious: as a second cabinet source put it to me over weekend, what the markets do it coming few days will be critical for Truss. The CX firewall now burnt thru and if no improvement, the signal will be that the is problem is her 2/

🚨 NEW: GB Energy. Starmer announces plan for a new taxpayer-owned company to invest in renewable energy. The hope is it will eventually be of a size equivalent to France’s EDF (the country’s largest electricity supplier. Revenues if E84.5bn 2021) Labour’s answer to the govt’s long term energy plan. A new renewable company to harness sea, wind, waves (also has option for nuclear). Funded through £8.3bn national wealth fund. No figure given for initial seed capital

Truss Biden bi-lat: Her aim at UN is cast herself - like Johnson - as champion of Ukraine & a PM prepared to b tough w authoritarians (Russia/China) & work with West to ensure democracy prevails thru closer econ & security co-op. On this Truss/Biden agree but what about N Ire? 1/ 👀UK v light lipped on what said between UVdL and Truss on NI protocol.

But am told by diplomatic source that US Sec of State Antony Blinken made it very clear to Foreign Sec James Cleverly that resolving tensions over trade in NI “is a top priority for the US” 2/

Fascinating @FT splash. Kwateng could scrap bankers’ bonus caps. Logic = make London more competitive, sell as Brexit benefit

But certainly not a vote winner. Bankers bonuses + no windfall tax a bold & genuine ideological break between parties I’ve not see for a decade 1/ What’s the logic? Scrap cap intro’d via EU 2014, as part of wider deregulatory reforms. Aim = make City more attractive place for biz. That grows economy, helps Exchequer. BUT, the political risk at a time when people struggling & pub services deteriorating, HUGE political risk

Coming up on @skynews the mood from Kigali.
Source close to PM tells me only found out Oliver Dowden resigning after his 6am (5am UK time) morning swim. Pair had short call before letter sent. PM suprised and wasn't expecting it 1/ PM partly surprised because Dowden had prepared PM for PMQs on Weds and said he expected to lost the by-elections, so didn't expect him to resign. A source close to PM tells me its "not helpful" and what comes next?

Just received extract from SG report: "I've already commented in my update on what I found to be failures of leadership & judgment in No 10 & Cab Office. The events I investigated were attended by leaders in government. Many of these events shouldn't have been allowed 2 happen 1/ GRAY:
Whatever initial intent many of these gatherings not in line with guidance.
Junior civ servants believed invl in some events permitted given attendance of senior leaders
Matter of disciplinary action for others to consider. But no excuse for some of behaviours set out here

After months of waiting Sue Gray report expected today. Going to be a very difficult day. Findings expected to be highly critical of PM & civil servants, with some of the conduct documented in report simply “indefensible” according one figure who has seen elements of report. This what Gray said in Jan
- Gatherings represent ‘serious failure’ of standards with some of behaviours around events diff to justify
- Failures of leadership & judgement in No 10/cab office
- Some events shouldn’t have been allowed to happen

Those the bones, today the flesh

BREAK: Inflation hits 40-year high of 9%

Up from 7% in March to 9% in April, it highest level since comparable readings in 1982.

Rise led by unprecedented 54% increase in the energy price cap.

news.sky.com/story/cost-of-… news.sky.com/story/cost-of-… Sunak response: “Countries around the world are dealing with rising inflation…We cannot protect people completely from these global challenges but are providing significant support where we can, and stand ready to take further action”