Are Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycles Over?
The team at @BlockwareTeam thinks so — and their latest report lays out why Bitcoin is transitioning from a retail-driven boom-and-bust asset into a true macro asset class.
Here’s what it says 🧵👇 Historically, Bitcoin’s price action followed predictable 4-year cycles, driven by halving supply shocks and retail speculation.
But in the post-ETF era, institutional capital is changing the rules. The old cycle model is breaking down.
Since the creation of the ETF in January 2024, Bitcoin’s largest drawdown has been a mere 30%

How the Wealthy Avoid Taxes (Legally) — and Why Bitcoin Mining is the Newest Loophole

Donald Trump never paid much in taxes.
Not because he cheated — but because he understood one of the most powerful weapons in the U.S. tax code: depreciation.

He bought real estate, buildings, and claimed massive paper losses… and still made money.

Now you can do the same — with Bitcoin Mining.
🧵👇 Under Trump's original tax plan in 2017, investors could write off 100% of the cost of business equipment (like real estate renovations or machinery) in Year 1.

This is called bonus depreciation.
It let Trump "lose" millions on paper, while collecting real income.

That’s now BACK — thanks to the Big Beautiful Bill.

The man who revived Atari from the brink of death is now building the fastest growing Corporate Bitcoin Treasury on the Paris Stock Exchange – and hardly anyone is paying attention.
Here’s the story of Frédéric Chesnais and Crypto Blockchain Industries () 🧵👇ALCBI.PA
Frederic Chesnais took Crypto Blockchain Industries ($ALCBI.PA) public in Q4 2021 at the peak of the BTC bull run and the post-covid monetary expansion. They started as a Web3 conglomerate — with ventures in the metaverse, tokenized gaming, and digital identity.
But by 2025, their stock was down more than 90% from its high.
Liquidity was gone.
The core business was fading.
CBI needed a strategic pivot — fast.

On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin Miners went from earning 900 BTC per day to 450 BTC per day.

"Halvings" enforce Bitcoin's 21,000,000 supply cap, but the drop in revenue creates a challenge for Miners.

How have Miners fared since the 2024 halving? Is Bitcoin Mining still profitable? 🧵👇 To start, let's look at 'Hashrate' -- the combined computational power of all Bitcoin miners on the network.

When hashrate is increasing, miners are expanding operations. They're building new facilities, plugging in new machines, etc. -- it's a sign of a healthy, profitable, competitive market.

Hashrate rarely drops. But when it does, it usually means miners are struggling.

The best way to analyze hashrate is by comparing the 30 & 60-day moving averages. These are known as 'hash ribbons.' When the 30-day moving average drops below the 60-day that means the least profitable miners on the network have turned off their machines.

This typically marks a local bottom in the BTC price as well as mining profitability:

- Inefficient Miners (old machines & high electricity rates) capitulate
- Mining Difficulty adjusts down
- Surviving miners become more profitable
- Less sell pressure from miners
- BTC price increases, mining becomes more profitable

Bitcoin Mining is a competitive, free market with no bailouts. The best operators -- those with efficient machines and low cost electricity -- survive and thrive over the long-term.

I don’t normally speculate on short-term #Bitcoin price action — but some friends of mine have provided some fascinating perspectives that I want to share.🧵 👇

Bitcoin is up 25% from its April 9th low and there’s a handful of indicators that show a major bull market around the corner. Starting with the Average Miner Cost of Production.

In a rational economy, assets rarely trade below their cost of production. Now, what it costs to “mine” a Bitcoin is different for every miner – machine type, electricity cost, and uptime all play a role — but the analysts @BlockwareTeam have aggregated data to create a metric called the “industry average”.

This metric has timed each of the past 6 Bitcoin bottoms:

September 2024
November 2022
September 2020
March 2020
December 2018
April 2016

This metric is signaling a bottom right now. Next is the long-term holder supply. This measures the amount of Bitcoin that have not moved on-chain in at least 155 days (and the 30-day change)

At its core, the Bitcoin price is simply a function of supply and demand. After an increase in the Bitcoin price, you start to see previously inactive coins move on-chain. Inversely, after prolonged periods of sideways or negative price action, long-term holders begin accumulating more coins, setting the stage for a supply-shock and upward price pressure.

Over the past 30 days long-term holders have acquired ~150,000 more BTC. Bitcoin is running out of sellers in the $80k to $100k range.

Not getting shaken out by volatility is why it’s so important to know what you hold.

800,000,000,000,000,000,000

That’s how many hashes Bitcoin miners are producing every single second -- making it the most robust and secure computer network in the world, by far.

How high can this go? How does this affect Bitcoin miners?

Let’s talk about it 🧵👇 With the network hashrate currently at ~800 exahash per second, the first question we have to ask is, how did it get here? There’s two ways for Bitcoin’s hashrate to increase:

Miners build and energize new facilities to plug in more machines
Technology advances and miners plug in more powerful, more efficient machines

For the majority of Bitcoin’s existence growth in hashrate has come primarily from the second source.

Bitcoin ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), machines purpose built to mine Bitcoin as efficiently as possible, first hit the market in 2013. When viewing a chart of Hashrate in logarithmic scale the impact of ASICs is clear – from 2013 to 2015, Hashrate increased by 1,387,000% 🤯

Bitcoin mining has changed dramatically over the past decade. From GPUs in a garage to Tier-1 Datacenters filled with ASICs, Bitcoin mining is a rapidly evolving, global game.

But this game isn’t just played by massive corporations. In fact, 2025 could be a significant year for smaller, private Bitcoin miners. Let’s look at the data 🧵👇 This is the golden age of Bitcoin mining.

2025 is on pace to be the highest grossing year for Bitcoin mining in history. In January, miners earned a combined ~$1.4 billion in revenue (equal to a ~$16.8B annual run-rate).

Between 2025 and 2032, roughly 1,000,000 BTC will enter circulation via mining. After the 2032 halving, it will take more than 100 years to mine the remaining ~328,000 BTC. Said another way, ~98% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist will be mined 2032. This means the final 108 years of Bitcoin mining will be a competition to uncover the last 2% of the Bitcoin supply.

The next few years of this “digital gold rush” are crucial – there’s a lot of Bitcoin up for grabs.

I am behind on the past few @WhatisMoneyShow episode announcements, and since we have been releasing some absolute bangers, here is a quick thread on our recent releases: Whitney Webb (@_whitneywebb) is a professional writer, researcher, journalist, and host of an independent podcast called Unlimited Hangout. We discuss deep state power, Jeffrey Epstein's case, and corruption at the highest levels.

whatismoneypodcast.com/episodes/a-dee…

Extremely excited to announce the release of The Platonic Philosophy Series today on The @WhatisMoneyShow! The eminent philosopher @vervaeke_john joins me for a 10-hour conversation on the masterful book "Plato's Critique of Impure Reason."

Quick thread outlining each episode⬇️ Episode 1 "A Logic of Violence" explores the way is which sophistic relativism inevitably descends into violence, and why a proper relationship with the absolute is necessary for live well-lived.

In another binge-style release, I am excited to announce The Balaji Series episodes 1 - 7 are now live on The @WhatisMoneyShow !!

In this insight-packed conversation, @balajis and I explore sovereignty in The Digital Age, geopolitics, #Bitcoin, and more.

The Balaji Series is also available in podcast format.

Here is the link to episode 1 of the 7-part series:

whatismoneypodcast.com/episodes/sover…

A #Bitcoin masterpiece has been written by @johnkvallis, and Sunday is the perfect day to immerse yourself in this beautiful work of art...

"Money Messiah" uncovers the consequences of corrupt money better than anything I've ever read.

Quick thread⬇️:

johnkvallis.substack.com/p/money-messia… One of the most profound lessons the study of #Bitcoin, money, and economics will teach you is that the materialist perspective is incomplete. For humans, motivational significance matters more than any substantive reality...

Finally releasing episode 1 of what may prove to be one of the most profound series ever produced on The @WhatisMoneyShow...

Join Mike Hill and I as we dive deep into Robert Pirsig's excellent book "Lila: An Inquiry into Morals."

In this under-appreciated book, Pirsig proposes an alternative to subject-object metaphysics which he calls the Metaphysics of Quality. In this view, reality is composed of distinct patterns of value, not substance.

Here is the podcast version of ep 1: whatismoneypodcast.com/episodes/the-u…

Here is the most painful piece I have ever written: "Sovereignism Part 8: Everywhere and Nowhere" exploring market dynamics, the nature of fiat, #Bitcoin, and the mass-psychosis of totalitarianism.

breedlove22.substack.com/p/sovereignism…

Quick thread of a few excerpts from this written work⬇️ "Humans not only trade goods, and the ideas on which they are based, but they also imitate one another’s actions in waves of mimetic exchange—imitative patterns of action directly responsible for the development and propagation of ritual, culture, and social institutions."

"The Purges Have Begun with Jeffrey A. Tucker (WiM089)" is now live on The @WhatisMoneyShow !!

@jeffreyatucker joins me for an enlightening conversation on the precious nature of human freedom, and the fight for it in the world today.

This episode is also available in podcast format here:

whatismoneypodcast.com/episodes/the-p…

In celebration of November 21st, The @WhatisMoneyShow is releasing the Pysh Series (6 episodes total) all at once, today. In The Pysh Series, @PrestonPysh and I explore two books:

1. The Brain by David Eagleman

2. The Seat of the Soul by Gary Zukav

Episode thread⬇️ Ep. 1: Money as an Extension of Mind

"WiM070 - The Hillebrand Series | Episode 11 | The Moral Status of Statism" is now live on The @WhatisMoneyShow !!

@HillebrandMax and I dive deeper into libertarianism, this time exploring the morality of citizenship, state relations, #Bitcoin, and war.

The Hillebrand Series episode 11 is also available in podcast format here:

whatismoneypodcast.com/episodes/wim07…

Hey @elonmusk:

In 1900, Nikola Tesla envisaged "a principled machine" as the end of war. Today, that machine is #Bitcoin

“...a machine embodying a higher principle, which will enable it to perform its duties as though it had intelligence, experience, judgement, a mind!” The difficulty adjustment of #Bitcoin makes it the world’s first “intelligent” money: it forever shifts the game of property into digital space, and makes the battle of establishing consensus on ownership “a mere spectacle, a play, a contest without loss of blood.”

Thread in response to @jordanbpeterson's inquiry about @profplum99's recently published disparagement of #Bitcoin and Bitcoiners.

https://twitter.com/jordanbpeterson/status/1395376501940445186

CLAIM: “Namely, that our inevitable flaws, including our lack of perfect foresight, require guardrails to reduce the risk of unintended consequences, like, for example, speculation in “low-risk” mortgages that drove a global financial crisis.”

Private property rights can equally be called private property responsibilities. A proprietor is incentivized to take responsibility for the assets he owns to maximize the usefulness and longevity of the rights they bestow upon him. "Give a man the secure possession of a bleak rock and watch him turn it into a garden.

Give a man a 9-year lease on a garden and watch him convert it into a desert.

The magic of property turns sand into gold."

New writing up on my Medium page:

Sovereignism Part 2: #Bitcoin, The Ultimate Offshore Bank

breedlove22.medium.com/sovereignism-p… International waters have historically been the greatest geographic safe haven from nation-states. Gamblers, pirates, smugglers, and other sinners seeking to engage in state-condemned activities willingly make use of this ungovernable territory.

A thread summarizing "Sovereignism Part 1: Digital Creative Destruction"

My 12-part essay series explores the digital disrup­tion of the nation-state and the subse­quent amplification of individual sover­eignty during the digital age.

swanbitcoin.com/sovereignism-p…

Let's dive in ⬇️ Statism is a system of socioe­co­nomic organi­za­tion which origi­nated in the Indus­trial Age. Statism includes all state imple­men­ta­tions of capitalism, commu­nism, fascism, and all other state ‑isms; it does not refer to these ideolo­gies in any pure sense.