Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Bvddy Profile picture
Bvddy
@BvddyCorleone
Eclectic Investing
CRE Profile picture Max Runkle Profile picture pk Profile picture Monolith Investments Profile picture philip de vries Profile picture 7 subscribed
Jul 12, 2022 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Thread of some of my favourite little pearls of investing wisdom: 1-On Luck, Uncertainty, Survival

“The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising.” —D.Kahneman

“The boon that can be given can also be withdrawn.” —Seneca

“It matters not how frequently a strategy succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.” —NNTaleb
Jul 23, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
This is an impressively poor take on $HNRG by @dyer440. Highlighting just to say that if this is the only bear case on Hallador, I should probably buy a lot more shares... 1- There’s very little substance in the thread, so not much to push back on. But note that he talks about weak Q1 FCF without having read the 10Q: it states that the hit to cashflow was a result of ~180k tons worth of coal shipment delays that will be deferred till later in 2021:
May 30, 2021 • 12 tweets • 7 min read
Let’s talk about the most hated commodity and sector in the investment world today: coal.

For those brave enough to venture into this bleak and lifeless corner of the market, I’ll lay out the broad thesis in this thread.👇 1- Coal has fallen out of favour in recent years for two main reasons:

First, coal is the “dirtiest” fossil fuel; coal-fired plants release more greenhouse gas per energy unit than any other electricity source. This has placed coal squarely in the crosshairs of the ESG movement.
May 28, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
.@GSRevelator helped me get acquainted with $HNRG — it is now a top pick for me in the US thermal space.

I’ll touch on a few high-level points about the company but follow him for more depth.👇 1- Coal prices are up significantly this year as NatGas has rallied enough to trigger substantial coal/gas switching.

(Recall that as a simple rule of thumb, coal’s share of the US energy mix increases by ~1% for every $0.25 increase in HH gas.👇)
May 23, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
What are the implications of the twin collapse in $ARKK & $Crypto for broader markets?

A thread.👇 1- At the height of the rampant speculation in the Dot Com Bubble, many young investors thought they’d enjoy early retirement thanks to the easy fortunes they made on Internet stocks.
Mar 12, 2021 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
The Shale Revolution enabled the US to dramatically increase its production of oil & gas in the last decade.

You can see it in this chart as the massive spike in tight oil production in ~2011.

But the revolution is over, which means opportunity for energy investors.

A thread. 1- The US has become the top oil-producing country in the world, accounting for almost 75% of the increase in global oil production over the last decade or so.

Oil & gas prices and related equities have suffered as this new production source flooded the market with new supply.
Feb 16, 2021 • 13 tweets • 7 min read
I know everyone‘s focused on Bitcoin, Tesla, EVs, meme stonks, and the hottest SPACs.

I get it. The Ponzi sector is a-boomin’.

Still, one of the most attractive investment opportunities (to my eye) isn’t in any of these...it’s in those dirty and unpopular energy companies. 1- Commodities are cyclical, and oil’s cyclicality is among the most extreme of any commodity.

The first-ever negative oil price that we had in April ‘20 can be seen as the dramatic, almost poetic culmination of a brutal 12yr down cycle.

Safe to say that marked the bottom...
Jan 29, 2021 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
Let’s talk about Senvest Capital, a publicly-traded Montreal-based contrarian investment firm.

There’s a fascinating opportunity in the company, as they likely made a killing by buying over 5% of $GME back in October, and no one has caught on yet... 🤯

$SEC.TO $SVCTF Disclaimer: Nothing in this thread is original. The credit is owed entirely to @Josh_Young_1 @BisonInterests for discovering it. He was gracious enough to put it on my radar a few days ago.

You can read Josh’s piece on Senvest, published Wednesday, here: seekingalpha.com/article/440140…
Jan 6, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
It’s my birthday today but I can’t resist commenting on the big moves in Growth/Value...

Today’s rise in the 10Y to above 1% has coincided with a massive blowout in the $QQQ / $IWN spread. Over 600bps today alone!

Remember, as @hkuppy put it, the “Big One” is still coming... Image 1- Let’s first think about this purely from a fundamental valuation (DCF) perspective:

Growth stocks are long duration assets and are thus more sensitive to rising rates. Since a larger bulk of their PV comes from expected growth in cash flows, they get smacked when rates rise.
Jan 4, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
First trading day of the year:

S&P 500 -1.55%
U.S. 10Y Yield +0.31%

This doesn’t really portend an easy ride for Risk Parity in 2021... Should we be surprised that this happens on a day when market is pricing in a higher likelihood of a Dem sweep -> more fiscal stimulus -> greater inflation risk?

I think not.
Jan 2, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
#Bitcoin just broke US$30,000, making it *A TRIPLE* since October.

What in the world is going on?

Hint: it has to do with $GBTC (and other big players) gobbling up the free float and cornering the market. See here for more.👇
Dec 31, 2020 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
This year, for the first time, I started sharing my thoughts on various topics in Investing/Economics/Law.

Here’s a ‘Master Thread’ of my main write-ups this year.👇 First, a special thanks to all the brilliant people I’ve met & learned from on Twitter. To name a few:

@profplum99 @hkuppy @Convertbond @contrarian8888 @jam_croissant @pineconemacro @verdadcap @WayneHimelsein @LT3000Lyall @HFI_Research @SahilBloom @coloradotravis @SantiagoAuFund
Dec 21, 2020 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
The problem with listening to @Jkylebass is that he can convince me of almost anything.

Great episode nonetheless with many interesting topics covered. Kyle made some points that I think are worth discussing.

Here are some highlights.👇👇 1- Asked about inflation, Kyle said that he’s “offended by the fact that people out there don’t believe we have inflation already. We’ve seen enormous inflation,”

And while the inflation experts will tell you otherwise, he’s right.
Dec 10, 2020 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
Brief note on the Growth/Value Rotation.

I have been using the $QQQ / $IWN ratio to proxy the Large Growth and Small Value factors respectively.

Admittedly, these are imperfect proxies, as they conflate Growth/Value factors with Momentum/Anti-Momentum factors. As @profplum99 has noted, Growth & Momentum have become (temporary) partners, as have Value & Anti-Momentum.

Michael argued on Nov 24 (below) that the “value pop” was really just an anti-momentum pop, and that value itself barely budged.
Nov 30, 2020 • 14 tweets • 9 min read
Why the Growth/Value Rotation is Likely Still in its Early Innings...

A thread.

Lots of talk about whether this “value pop” in Nov will prove to be short-lived or whether it has legs. 1- Over the summer, we got multiple “tremors” in the QQQ/IWN spread; there were multiple days in which the spread blew out by 250bps or more.

In early Oct, we got a big one: the spread blew out 600bps in favour of IWN.👇
Nov 20, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1- $GBTC makes it a lot easier for institutions and retirement accounts to own Bitcoin. So in a sense, it does increase demand, by increasing accessibility.

Institutions that otherwise would not have been able to buy are now buying thanks to $GBTC (and other similar products). 2- Think back to the listing of $GLD; it’s a similar story. Pre-2005, it was almost impossible for institutions to own gold, as only option was physical.

Enter $GLD in Nov’04. It changed the game & ushered in a lot more buying, as more ppl who wanted to buy were able to do so.
Nov 20, 2020 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
The Next Bitcoin Mania is Here...

The main thesis (explained in the thread below) has been that rising institutional demand coupled with an already-tiny float will catapult Bitcoin higher in the short to medium term.

Brief update.👇 Let’s run through all the Old Guards of Wall Street who’ve recently morphed into Bitcoin advocates...

First up, we got George Ball, ex-Prudential CEO, coming out in favour of Bitcoin on Aug 14:

reuters.com/video/watch/id…
Nov 16, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
What’s up with bond yields?

The consensus scenario appears to be that yields stay pegged at zero forever and beyond. I just don’t buy it.

Let’s imagine why long term rates would rise (Part 1), and what would happen if they did, even if just a little (Part 2).

A thread. Part 1-

There are a number of forces that would put upward pressure on yields:

(A) Stronger economic fundamentals and growth

(B) Higher inflation expectations

(C) A supply/demand imbalance in the Treasury market

Let’s explore each of these in turn...
Nov 2, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
@coloradotravis @CTYRTZL 1/X- Let’s go back to basics (last time I did this, @profplum99 retweeted my comments about money only to liken them to a kindergarden story 😅).

Borrowers demand money. Lenders supply money. Either side can push interest rates up or down, all other things being equal. @coloradotravis @CTYRTZL @profplum99 2/X- Let’s say economic times improve and investors see a lot of new opportunities to earn great returns. But they lack capital. So demand for money increases. That will push interest rates up, all other things being equal.
Nov 1, 2020 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
I finally gave this episode a listen. Great and provocative interview as always from @ErikSTownsend.

Below I’ll share some general comments on MMT along with some thoughts that came to mind while listening to Erik’s conversation with @StephanieKelton.

A thread. 1- Let’s start by dispelling common misperceptions. Many people don’t understand MMT yet think they do.

It’s helpful to distinguish two aspects of MMT. The 1st is mainly descriptive; a plain description of how our current fiat monetary system works in reality.
Nov 1, 2020 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
I wrote about the exceptional opportunity in US NatGas about a week ago, and things are moving quickly...

Let’s do an update and go through some exciting developments. In short, the picture for NatGas continues to improve from all angles.

A thread. 1- Injection into storage last week was only 29 Bcf, an incredible number.

This injection was ~22% lower than consensus estimates for the week (37 Bcf), ~70% lower than the injection in the same week last year (89 Bcf), and ~57% lower than the 5yr average injection (67 Bcf).