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A weekly Data and Analysis section for @Capitol_Weekly by @paulmitche11
1 Aug
If you've been paying attention to the drama around the US Census and apportionment, it is clear that the current administration is playing games - delaying because of COVID made sense, and now they are trying to speed it up again.. but read to the end. There is a surprise! 1/12
Here's the play: Under current law the Census needs to deliver to Congress and the President the apportionment by Dec 31. But, they have asked for a four month delay, which the House has passed, but is sitting in the Senate. This would delay the release until April 31. 2/12
At the same time, the President has asked that, for the purposes of allocating the congressional seats to each state, the US Census not include individuals who, based on administrative records, appear to be non-citizens. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
4 Mar
Ok, it is incredibly early, and we will know more in the coming days, but two things we can say about the outstanding votes in California (with gifs).
First: There are massive numbers of ballots to be counted in CA. This will be a record. More than 4 million. Could reach 5 million (with 1.2 million in LA County alone).

Put another way, we may only be half way there.
Uncounted votes aren’t from old white homeowner Reps, they mostly voted early and they are over represented in the current tabulations.

Uncounted will skew young, Latino, Dem. For candidate races and ballot measures this means the votes will go in one direction: to the left.
Read 3 tweets
17 Feb
Independent Voters are getting boxed out of their access to the "open" Democratic primary, and it's disproportionately Latinos and younger voters.

A shockingly low 4.5% of Latinos who are independents and got a ballot in the mail have taken the step to get a Dem ballot.
If the presidential campaigns want to win CA, their first, second and third priorities should be to get these folks Dem ballots. All this data is in @Political_Data system! Come on @BernieSanders @MikeBloomberg @PeteButtigieg @ewarren @amyklobuchar @JoeBiden @TomSteyer
The 95.5% of Latinos who got non-partisan ballots can simply call or email their county registrar. The Presidential campaigns can facilitate this - for a lot less $$ than a statewide TV buy. Let's not deny millions of voters the chance to participate in this upcoming primary.
Read 4 tweets
10 Feb
Big movement in the @Capitol_Weekly Presidential Primary Tracking Poll! @BernieSanders pulling even further ahead, at the expense of @ewarren who clings to second place. A big gain for @MikeBloomberg and @PeteButtigieg, who is on the cusp of getting statewide delegates.
Story if you didn’t already see it. capitolweekly.net/tracking-poll-…
Read 3 tweets
5 Nov 19
Looking for some voter registration growth in the @CASOSvote 150-day report coming out soon? Well, here's all the cities where raw voter registration numbers have skyrocketed by 25% or more. That's cray cray.

Go ahead and tell me DMV / Automatic registration isn't working.
Here are the communities that have more than 1,000 Latinos, and where they have had 30% increase in the number of registered Latino voters.
These eight communities have notched above 50% Latino by registration....
Read 8 tweets
5 Nov 19
A lot of people casually throw out there "All the Republicans are re-registering Independent." So we looked. 1/4
With over 40,000 surveys completed in 2016 Primary we can see that there was a good amount of re-registration, and, yes, of the 12,749 Republicans, 300 became Democrats and 830 became Independent/Other. That's a 91.4% retention rate for Republicans, or about 9% switching. 2/4
But, among Democrats we also saw among the 20,792 surveyed in the 2016 Primary, 1,302 became Ind/Other and 243 became Republicans. That's a 92.6% retention, or 7.5% switching. 3/4
Read 9 tweets
30 Oct 19
If you're watching the #CA25 race, here are a couple very real possibilities, with gifs. 1/10
Rumor is the special election will be May 5th or 12th. Either would mean that the primary would be concurrent with the Presidential primary election on March 3. This election would be over 50% Dem because of the Presidential Primary electorate.

But a May Runoff? Ouch. 2/10
Whichever Dem makes the runoff will be forced into a unless they win a 50% outright victory in March. This most likely scenario is that a Dem and a Rep march toward a low-turnout election in a swing district. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
12 Nov 18
If current projections hold, with Dems picking up the close races, 12,803,441 California voters will be represented by Democratic members of Congress, Assembly and Senate. That's all three Dem.

Only 2,147,712 voters will be represented by all three Republicans in these offices.
For those doing the math, All Democratic representation (asm, sen, congress) in 65% of CA, all Republican representation in 11%.
In contrast, in 2002-2003 session, 7,444,158 voters were represented by Democrats at all levels, CA Congress, Assembly and Senate, and 4,661,873 were represented by all Republicans. The math: 49% all Democratic, 31% all Republican.
Read 3 tweets
7 Oct 18
Will just start this thread and see where it takes me... This looks at turnout, for CA Statewide elections from 2002 - 2016, broken into three sets [18-24] [25-39] and [everyone else]. Note how 18-24 year-olds turnout has been 37-42 points below everyone else in Gov Generals.
Digging into Latino turnout, we can see in the first chart that Latino Turnout is significantly lower than overall turnout. This is driven by lower turnout by young voters... but, here it gets interesting. The lower turnout for 18-24 is similar between Latino and everyone else.
But, the Latino voting population is just much younger. Among white voters, about 40% are 55+, while 23% are 18-34. For Latinos, this is flipped. 40% are age 18-34, only 23% are 55+. Latinos have more voters in the lower performing age brackets, fewer older voters.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul 18
There are 4.39 million Seniors on the CA Voter File, and an equivalent 4.39 million aged 18-32. So, how do they stack up?

Seniors: 61% turnout in the 18 Primary, comprised 38% of votes cast.

Age 18-32: 17% turnout, comprised 11% of all votes cast.
This graphic shows the total number of voters of each age 18-80, with a dot for the number that actually voted in the CA 2018 Primary. You can see two humps in total voters representing Millennial and Boomers, and the way that the turnout increases as voters get older.
But, also, look at this interesting comparison between ALL VOTERS and LATINO VOTERS. In this you can see how Latinos don't have a double hump in registration - they have a single hump, with voters skewed young.
Read 4 tweets