I am a price action maxi at heart, but it's difficult to beat a simple EMA strategy when price is trending.

This is my go-to EMA strategy, which can be used on any timeframe.

Enjoy

Fast EMAs: 33,55
Slow EMAs: 100,200 (cloud) Indicator:

tradingview.com/script/m0o3bEJ…

Sat down at the desk and had another proper look at the charts.

Revised my position on $CRV as I think its probable we do visit this daily fair value gap below us either this weekend on early next week.

If we pump from here still have initial spot position minus the tp.

Charts are set up for an interesting week though lots of opportunities. Looking for this ideally from earlier

$CRV

$CRV - Top Down

Monthly

- We had a deviation below the 2020 lows last year from June to October, with expansion back above during the election rally from November - December.

- I will assume the deviation below the 2020 lows and reclaim is iron support and therefore any re-test should hold.

- The 2025 price action for CRV has been pretty underwhelming. December closed with a large wick to the upside and January re-tested near 50% of said wick, following with a strong move to the downside, testing the .886 fib retrace level. We have since been ranging.

Given the current monthly structure, I cannot confidently say the lows at .34 and .39 are safe because of the currently monthly three candle structure and the likelihood of us closing the month through a fair value gap.

Does this mean I'm bearish on CRV from a monthly perspective? No. I think if we are in a macro accumulation phase for alts and the likes of CRV that has the stable coin narrative behind it, it is perhaps "cheap" here if you have a 6 month time horizon. When price is ranging or in an accumulation phase, deep retracements are to be expected, until we enter markup and expand from these levels. I'm not the account to convince you to buy and hold CRV here based on fundamentals - I'm simply looking at raw technicals. We could be forming a higher low here - but from the monthly pov and the reasons above, I think the lows are not safe yet. I would look at this as opportunity if said lows get run, however. Monthly - Range

So with the above post out of the way and setting the scene for CRV, how do we trade this?

Recap:
We're likely still in an accumulation phase, so ranging price action is to be expected. Low may *or may not* be in yet. Point is -imo- lows are vulnerable. Monthly iFVG to consider.

So let's tidy up the chart and look at the current monthly range (based on swing points).

1. Range High @ 0.8622
2. Range Low @ 0.3470
3. MT of 2020 low deviation @ 0.2739

Monthly Long Thesis:

- Would look to position long / buy spot on a sweep and reclaim of Range Low.
- Lowest expectation of a wick would be to the mean threshold (MT) of the 2020 deviation.

$BTC

Reclaim the daily open for a long towards 102.3k.

Otherwise, I'm watching those Coinbase equal lows. $BTC - LTF

Seems to be only Coinbase with these equal lows. Most other major exchanges ran this level (though there are more equal lows further down).

So I'll keep the CB lows in mind, but here's my low timeframe plan.

We've had a bullish shift on the H4 so I think the nuke from the other day is safe for now. We've also ran a bunch of internal lows too.

I'll long into this m15 demand zone *or* on a clear reclaim of today's open. I want to see a rounded re-test or clear acceptance above 97.3k for Plan B.

Memes and hand wavey squiggly price scenarios aside, here is something actionable to help you navigate a false breakout.

For each scenario, imagine price has been consolidating in a ranging type structure for a period of time, prior to a breakout attempt to the upside, using a bullish example.

From experience, there are three types of false breakouts:

1. The Sweep

Quite simply, price breaks out of the range to the upside but fails to close outside the range, leaving a quick. Consider upside liquidity swept. Price is then likely to gravitate to the other side of the range.

2. The Deviation

Price manages to break out of the range for a short period of time, however doesn't manage to make any significant progress to the upside, before trading back inside the range. You can treat the deviation as your invalidation when entering shorts, again targeting the opposite side of the range.

3. The ******* **** ***

In this scenario, price makes a true break of the range with a close above, with strength and a good amount of travel. This is the scenario I want to focus on the most as it catches a lot of people out - and there are plenty examples of 1 and 2.

To illustrate, let's look at $INJ around Feb/March time of this year.

Keep in mind, INJ was one of the best performing assets of the bull market since January 2023. There was much anticipation of upside especially after 2 months of consolidation.

This is what INJ looked like pre-breakout in February: Breakout Attempt #1

The Sweep

Range High Swept. Then Swept Again. Before closing back into the range. Target Mid-Range and then Range Low (we managed just below mid-range before holding)

I and many others often talk about trade plans and scenarios in terms of conditional statements. IF X happens THEN do Y. However, many forget about the ELSE.

Your ELSE scenario is important as it can help you get back into the market if you are sidelined. For example, let's say your 'IF X happens' is an 80% probability setup. You're waiting for it but BOOM doesn't trigger. Market turns in the opposite direction. You can sit there flat ... OR ... your ELSE condition can get you in on a setup in the opposite direction.

#BTC

Possibly reclaiming Monday's low after a sweep of yesterday's low.

Equal highs at Mon High. Should be interesting. Otherwise, still waiting on a visit to 19.7-8k

Gn ✌️ Diagonal looks ripe for a squeeze tbh

Think $REN gets a pop here.

Swept local highs, held quarter range + H4 EMA 200.

Targeting those equal highs into mid-range Invalidation < 0.117

As this would break the local diagonal & H4 EMA 200.

#BTC

Game plan for tomorrow. Looking for the scenario drawn on the chart, or a sweep and reclaim of the 20k low.

Trading below 20k with no reclaim in sight will begin to look like a deviation of 20.5k high, shifting the context to bearish imo. Hmm. Also v possible we run the highs first looking at these wicks.

We'll see tomorrow. Gn ✌️

$ETH - Macro

Something to at least consider. I want to be bullish and hold BTC ETH for the next cycle but objectively, I can't buy spot here.

Consider this macro range from 2018 lows - 2021 highs. Each line is a solid S/R and we're against the weekly MA and EMA as resistance Reclaim the next S/R level and the weekly moving averages - then we're talking. Otherwise, you need to consider the possibility of lower prices.

#BTC

Small thread on setting bias.

Here are a few charts I flick through at least once per week to make sure my directional bias is sound and set as objectively as possible. 👇 1) Naked chart + Range.

Always good to eye a naked chart. Sounds simple, but with too much or old/irrelevant markup you may not see the wood for the trees.

Structurally, we are clearly still in an aggressive downtrend with a swing low + swing high to form a local range.

Been using this script for the last few years. Serves as a bias checker on the daily.

Green Cloud = Favour longs but be cautious when price falls back under fast EMAs (lines)

Red Cloud = Favour shorts, but be cautious when price reclaims fast EMAs As it stands today, the EMA cloud is red and we haven't even touched the fastest moving average yet ...

There will be rallies when price over extends to revert to the mean ... but don't get too excited yet.

#BTC

Looking for 23k as long as we stay above the monthly open. No position here. Haven't got a setup on the lower timeframe. While the levels are holding (Weekly, Monthly S/R Flip) this local consolidation on the lower timeframe looks a little shitty.

Waiting until we tap a level of interest to position either way.

#BTC

Rejecting off the macro mid-range. Not something that should be unexpected. But a close back into the local range shifts the momentum back to neutral imo.

Move towards 51-53k regains bullish momentum as a continuation of the move from 37-38k. Waiting for Monday open 🍿 This would be quite something

#BTC

Big test here Alts too

Hardware wallet misconceptions.

First, a hardware wallet is a device that generates and stores crypto currency private keys (seed phrase). Examples include Ledger Nano X, Trezor.

[...] 1. Your crypto tokens are never stored on the hardware device. They are always stored on the blockchain.