🚨Modified Dow Theory Report 4/17/25: US MDT -10.36% w/ Wilshire 5k confirm -9.02. Last week -10.82% & -9.43. Non-US MDT -4.61 w/ confirm -5.85%. Last week, -8.12% and -7.43. Daily, Weekly Charts In Downtrend. Monthly Chart, Seems Good. Powell Signals Stagflation! AI: Until 2028?

Good Friday Markets Were Closed, So No Friday Comparison. Next Trading Day Is Monday. Happy Easter To Those That Celebrate! Happy Any Religion Or Path You Celebrate!

Most Of All HAPPY SPRING! Weather Is Finally Turning A Little Bit Here In Colorado, although we had some snow on Good Friday which will melt in a day or two.

Numbers First:

US MDT Fell Just -0.46% from last week with confirm -0.41

Non US Rose +3.51% week to week with confirm +1.58%.

Housekeeping:

We're going to do things a little differently this report with short posts but several of them, a thread, so you'll have to move through them one by one. I'm doing this because I want to make sure all the charts are completely visible as they tend to cluster if you put it all in one giant post on X.

You'll see the reason why as we look at not only the MDT Chart but also Daily, Weekly and Monthly of which the last three show some interesting AI drawn trendlines.

The first one is attached to this introduction and is the actual Modified Dow Theory Chart. Clearly there isn't any new uptrend occurring here. The downtrend is still there. No new buy signal. The small gain from last week was bitten into a little. The red line is beginning to turn down and that means, (if it continues to do so), that this will probably be a longer haul.

As a reminder, the average short term time period before a new buy signal is 2 ½ months and we're currently 1 ½ months in from the last sell trigger.

Average time is 9-12 months, maybe 6 if we get lucky, but after 12 we're looking at up to 18-24, possibly 30-36 as a stretch.

While these larger numbers seem scary, we can take solace in the fact that we're safely in cash, or cash equivalents, such as a short term treasury money market fund. 2) Currently what you're looking at is the Daily S&P 500 Cash chart, also known as the SPX. What you can see in green is a slightly downward channel that extends out in time. It's a slow grind downwards. This doesn't mean that the price action of the SPX is going to be slow. We can get fairly large moves on a daily basis. For example, the long green candle, 7 units back, is when President Trump announced a 90 day moratorium on tariffs, but you'll also notice that this was a peak event and we've continued to descend from there.

In order for a daily uptrend to resume, we'd have to break out of this and enter into the upper channel which is rising.

The red line channel is crash mode. These usually don't last long and happen when negative emotions are peaking. Just something to keep an eye on.

The bottomline here is that we grind down until we break out and firmly settle into the blue upward channel.

The MDT signal would most likely trigger a new buy sometime before we reach the blue.

1) Update: 🚨 Modified Dow Theory Weekend Report: Santa Claus Rally ends positive ✅, First 5 Trading Day Of January ends positive ✅, Two More Trading Days Left to Full Month Of January ending positive✅, Incredible Chance Of All 3 Coming Through?✅✅and ✅🏁 2) Why is it that I keep mentioning these seasonal indicators? Because Institutions and expert traders pay attention to them. They have incredible merit. Once again, with January only have 2 more trading days left, having all three is like winning a trifecta in horse racing.

1) The DMI indicator, also known as the DMI/ADX, was created by Welles Wilder, who said the simplest way to use it was to buy when the green cross the red and sell when red crossed the green. BTC has followed this very well in the past whenised with the Daily Chart. 2) That being said, it isn’t perfect by itself. The best signal comes when the yellow momentum line is dragging below and then we get the green over red cross followed by the yellow rising to cross the red as seen above. This means we are gaining speed of action.

1) So yes I’m beginning to do some marketing for this, my Modified Dow Theory Twitter page. Remember my MDT calls are free. I’ll probably do an introductory video soon so people know what this is all about. But no full teaching videos for now. Might create a paid version. 2) It difficult for me to make a paid version since for 13 years everything has been at no cost to you, and the value of the information in the subscription would have to be so much more. I may just keep it free and do paid sports and definitely “The Training” video for the mind

1) The Modified Dow Theory is a mechanical system. It produces serious gains especially when you take into consideration compounding. One thing I need to point out again tho is everything else is noise.

The chatter doesn't matter. Could be recession talk, or even in a recession 2) There were plenty of times when backtesting the MDT that markets turned down, a recession happened and we still had a buy signal, all to the surprise of many, even myself. Wars can happen, MDT is either in a buy or its not. Different people in Congress? Same thing.

1) Going over A.I. data this morning. Here is what it's saying as I decifer it.

a) As the war worsens in Europe, it is simply a matter of time before capital from the area comes to the US in droves. A.I. states that much of this will go into Blue Chip Stocks first. 2) b) As far as currencies go, the US dollar would be the the last to fall as we remain the Reserve Currency and as funds come here for safety from Europe. Dollar will continue to get strong. Prediction for British Pound is approx 80 by 2025, Euro not much better.

1) Today has been a research day for how to set up a page for sports picks. The A.I. has been really clean this Spring/Summer/Fall choosing the best games. My main focus will be a series of 3 bets, morning, afternoon, evening to get people paid on the same day consistently. 2) This has been the best way to win and it's pretty conservative. Your first bet (and for easiness sake) is, let's say, bet $20 to win $20 for a total of $40 including your original stake. If you win the first bet, you're done for the day and pocket your winnings.

1) AI: Just to clarify that 2023 will be a "Geopolitically" bad year, worse than ever. civil unrest and international war. Europe will get hit the worst. But the monetary model says beginning April 2023 financial markets will rise, yet be volatile ending in 2032 bubble top. 2) Any slowdown in the US, and there does seem to be one on the near term horizon, with a warning in the Aug-Sept area, will eventually be met with a huge cash influx in the US stock market starting in April 2023 from Europe's upheaval from politics and war.

1) Still have a lot going on, so busy. Yesterday I was too but the AI data was so compelling I posted some of it. Currently reading historical data/cycles from the AI programmer about using it for investments and trading which was my main purpose in the first place. 2) Some of this stuff goes back decades when it was first being developed as a possibility, so you have historical data, say the fall of Rome, then what happened was one part of the programming for pattern recognition.

1) I'm really not a conspiracy theorist. But man it sure sounds like I am with the AI. Social engineering today makes everyone think twice about what they post on social media. You can sound like a raving lunatic, but AI predicted Covid before it happened by 15 years. 2) Predicted sell signal in Jan before Covid crash (similar to MDT) and downturn this time (also like MDT). I started off wanting just the financial info to add to my charts and then the rabbit hole started. Software does pick reversal points on charts, pretty accurately.

1) Ok, so I'm evaluating some of the AI stuff. It's past predictions are remarkable in its fulfilment which leads me to think past proves possible future. However, for the average person it will come across as conspiratorial. Yet, how many conspiracies have we seen come true? 2) There is good and bad within it and it's making predictions not only near term but 10, 20 or more years out. Says Great Reset fails in the 2030's. That's a long time. But even though it fails, huge damage is done and we have to rebuild. Doesn't say what that means.

1) Collectively, all we do, plus all the patterns and cycles of the world flows through the AI. My wife and I had this discussion…what if Klaus Schwab had access to such a computer and it said you must do these actions to save the world? 2) The conversation was me playing devil’s advocate, and it’s a horrific thought that what we call The Great Reset might have come from running all scenarios and AI saying this is the answer. Then I come across this AI after doing some research on long term cycles for markets.

1) Watched some interesting videos on another AI program which predicts the markets and world events. Videos went back a little over a year and AI was highly accurate. Called for Aug/Sept time period to be the beginning of a rougher period into election but mellows out Q1 2023 2) Called for midterm elections to go Republican “if” there are no shenanigans and said Dems would do anything to remain in power so expect the unexpected. Economy will hit Europe the hardest with US having pockets of issues depending on location.

1) Modified Dow Theory Weekend Report: On Fri the MDT closed 9.81% away from a new buy trigger w/ its confirming signal, the Wilshire 5k, 10.01%. Last week it was 12.69 & 12.78 respectively. MDT for International Stocks was 15.42% with confirming 10.13% prior 21.32 & 15.06 2) This was a very big positive week for the markets and BTC followed through as well. It was the 2nd week in 3 where we ended higher by Fri. The jump has been strong with MDT narrowing closer to a buy trigger but we now sit at some resistance with a few fading indicators.

1) Good Morning! With Sunday being here, let’s look at a couple of things before Monday’s session, concentrating mostly on $BTC and a little bit on markets. Chart below is set up a little differently since I’ll be doing some short term trades with 1 and 5 min charts. 2) Unfortunately I won’t be posting those because there isn’t any way to keep that short a time period in real time on Twitter. The charts above are support lines for #BTC. These are drawn using Welles Wilder’s method which I’ve found very useful.

1) Good Afternoon. MDT Sell Signal was issued at approx 90 min. before closing bell. This was because there was very little chance of a rally that would bring us back to "hold" again. Normally, this would come after close and then sell Monday. But I don't trust weekends 2) This was a real nail biter and certainly white knuckling for the last week or so. We had so many chances to rally but when the Canary Indicator went into "correction mode" as a heads up and only 2.3% left until the MDT fell into a sell signal, I knew it was going to be tough.

1) Good Morning! First off before anything, my condolences to family, friends & fans of Meat Loaf who passed this morning. He’ll always be “Eddie” to me in the Rocky Horror Picture Show but the album Bat Out Of Hell was a soundtrack to many us back in ‘77 2) #BTC is still heading lower as it broke below 40k and then some. That DMI is relentless. I supposed the A.I. prediction of 22k-25k is Really back on the table again. For those who don’t know, this was made back in 2018: 64k to 20’s before going to 100k-250k.