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China Beige Book Profile picture
China Beige Book
@ChinaBeigeBook
CBB provides the world’s only large-scale, private data on the Chinese economy (RTs not necessarily endorsements).
Jun 4 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A hugely critical issue for #trade gurus. So what does the latest evidence say?

@USCC_GOV has been exploring this issue from numerous angles in 2024...
1/4
 ft.com/content/ede919… For example this, on the evolving "Grand Reallocation" of supply chains from #China to countries such as #Vietnam & #Mexico, as well as potential problems with transshipment:
(Prof. Davin Chor, @TuckSchool)
2/4
 uscc.gov/sites/default/…
Feb 8 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
**🇨🇳 MONETARY STIMULUS UPDATE**

"#China’s central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates this quarter as part of efforts to support economic growth"

This signal is being woefully misunderstood. Is anyone tracking the *response* to lower rates?
1/5
 caixinglobal.com/2024-02-06/in-… We are.

Will they cut more? Sure.

Will it do anything? Let's look at the data.
2/5
Jan 23 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
“In #China, we've found...the main effect on consumption is income," GS's Han said. "Ppl need to have income to consume"

Genius! Goldman's China shop has finally discovered that financially-suppressed consumers won't spend...
1/5 bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Which makes this bad:
2/5
Oct 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW OP-ED by CBB's @shehzadhqazi:

"Popping of the China bull-case bubble was 2yrs in the making. Many i-banks built the case that #China was on the cusp of pivoting back to a more growth-friendly & business-friendly enviromt. When that didnt happen..."
1/
 barrons.com/articles/china… "...the narrative gravitated to the idea that this wld happen at the PartyCongress...The bull case was predicated on 3 expectations: Covid-0 would end, reg crackdowns would ease & surprisingly absent stimulus wld finally get implemented. Each has proven disastrously wrong..."
2/
May 25, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
Many have asked us to step in to clarify what's really going on across #China's faltering economy.

As @michaelxpettis notes, the critical issue is "stimulus" vs loan demand.

But @ChinaBeigeBook data over past 6+ mos show there is much more here than meets the eye.
*THREAD*
1/ For virtually all of 2021, credit was extremely tight, w/uptake at corporates at, or hovering near, all-time @ChinaBeigeBook lows. Combination of constricted [govt dictated] supply & putrid levels of loan demand.
2/
 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Aug 22, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Industry's problems go FAR beyond lack of comparative expertise. Most institutions "offering" #China analysis are wholly compromised by their need to appease Beijing for larger profit goals, be it mkt access or merely ⬆️slices of priv wealth, asset mgmt or underwriting pies

1/6 Anyone w/relationships in this industry knows, eg, bank analysts can't publish research that too pointedly challenges the govt narrative or gets them on Beijing's bad side. Risks to corp expansion would be too great. So instead they produce tired ballads about still-high GDP

2/6