TESLA'S PERFECT STORM // ELON'S GAMBIT
Opinion, Not Investment Advice, Let's Discuss

Shortly before Tesla announced that they're bringing Elon's Comp Plan to shareholder's vote, I sent my patrons a video containing predictions

They requested public debate, so here we are
1/🧵 Despite widespread belief that tesla was about to appeal, I suggested considering the option of them bringing it to vote (which was later announced) and of the vote failing (explained later in thread)

In this case, I expect Elon to leave, ONLY IT'S NOT THAT SIMPLE...

WELL, THIS AGED WELL...
When Tesla had its 2022 AI Day, a group of robotics experts and nerds mocked Tesla's efforts on a live-thread led by @ctwy

Now that @Tesla_Optimus is about to enter productive work in factories, I thought it's a good time to check how well their expert predictions aged

➡️Here they mocked the presentations "as a grad student/TA doing a class presentation for a bunch of undergrads. Feels very 101."

(Considering the progress we saw, I guess the grad student and undergrads learned pretty fast😎)
1/🧵
@GoingBallistic5 @ICannot_Enough 2/
➡️They mocked Tesla's choosing 5 fingers, when two finger pinchers or vacuum cups (like what her employer @PlusOneRobotics does) are better for warehouse duties

(could be, but let's see them use vacuum cups to operate power tools)

TESLA GIGACASTING UPPER BODY + DIFFERENT US HL M3?

In this thread I'll explain (w. video) why "Entire underbody in one piece" rumor is wrong, as is "Entire car in one shot"

In fact, I see new rumor as GIGACASTING the UPPER BODY. I also see a possible DIFFERENT US HL M3
1/🧵
2/
Patent is for casting entire car, but is that what Tesla is doing now? I think not!

"Entire underbody" prevents Gen3's parallelization. It is the exact opposite of "let's let robots huddle in parallel around each body section (front, mid, rear), then attach them together"

VIDEO IS LIVE!
HARAKIRI: WHO KILLED THE JAPANESE CAR INDUSTRY? (It starts with a "C")

I thought I knew why Japanese carmakers are all EV laggards on their way to bankrupcy

I thought I knew - but I WAS WRONG , bc what we know is just the tip of the iceberg, and what's… https://t.co/wosf269PzNtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/
Going down this rabbit-hole was like unraveling a detective story, as the deeper I dug, the THICKER the plot became!

Pics show a few of the chapter markers (sans spoilers)

Vid here:
https://t.co/qakM8oyb81

XUBER - Tesla 's Ride-Hailing Weapon

I got a SNEAK PEEK into TESLA's upcoming RIDE-HAILING APP!

You did too. You're using it right now!

@Uber+@Lyft's main value for @Tesla is millions of users on their app
But click a button here on X for a Robotaxi, and BOOM! Uber's dead!
1/ https://t.co/by6K4cLatt

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1686733484943945728

2/
I always thought @Tesla should buy @Lyft
(NOT @Uber! Why pay full price for the biggest player you're about to disrupt and kill?)

But things changed, bc Tesla now has its own ride-hailing app. Would you rather now exit to order on Uber, or click a button while reading this?

ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS - ESS
Just watched an interesting interview of @RhoMoIola from @rhomotion by @LithiumIonBull and @RodneyHooper13 on RockStockChannel. Link in last tweet, first main points

1. ESS doubled in 2022 to 75GWh. Expected doubling in 2023 to 140-150GWh
1/🧵 2/
Majority of market is China+US, mostly due to policies.

In US mostly stabilizing grids. In China mostly for adding renewables, province legislations make storage compulsory when adding renewables

In US mostly CA+TX + investment tax credit in IRA giving 30-50% Capex credit

LIGHTEN UP, PEOPLE!

Still shaken from personal experience, I see the same sad thing happening to others such as @WholeMarsBlog

SMH, IS IT TOO LATE TO SAVE SOCIETY and HUMOR?

A rant!
1/🧵
#FreeSpeech #Humor #SatireIsImportantAF
@elonmusk - Twitter is important AF 2/
I'll start with @WholeMarsBlog, who posted this

Clearly tongue in cheek, a sarcastic response to attempts to curb free speech

https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1656530743718457344?t=_y-QG40U1pkhgQGfQj1ruQ&s=19

Engineering Analysis of CYBERTRUCK AMPHIBIOUS CAPABILITIES

Video out soon w. everything you wanted to know:
➡️How will #Cybertruck float?
➡️Will it leak?
➡️Elon's icon was ALL leaks
➡️How will it propel in water?
➡️How to spec your Cybertruck so it's marine-friendly
And more
1/ 2/
Video out Saturday* (once Patron-only Early Access is up), or join my Patreon for as little as $1/m and watch it Ad-free now

___
*Planned for Saturday but possibly delayed to Sunday or even Monday. Not my call, should know later today and update
patreon.com/posts/81768656…

From LEADER to LAGGARD:
How BMW (and TOYOTA) sealed its EV fate in a single day
🚀NEW VIDEO OUT

Why is it that #BMW and #Toyota, two prominent LEADERS, became dead-last LAGGARDS once #Disruption arrived?

I thought I knew why, but Boy was I wrong!
1/🧵
2/
Years ago I heard something on BMW which I knew wouldn't end well.

My prediction is now coming true

But going down this rabbit-hole I realized something more FUNDAMENTAL is at play at BMW, and the same goes for Toyota!

BMW is lagging in EVs and its future is far from certain
But all this was determined years ago!

In this video we spawn decades and continents, dive into psychology, management theory, cool and ugly designs and most of all the importance of LEADERSHIP at times of disruption
1/ Video was in pre-release, then updated to include BMW's recently announced "BULLISH" EV plans
(MSM thinks it's bullish, but bullish my ass!)

I have to say this is one of my favorite stories!

Video will be out Sunday, or join my Patreon and watch now:
patreon.com/posts/day-bmw-…

PROJECT HIGHLAND + MIA LFPs
(No new info, new conjecture!)

Before InvDay I predicted that Highland M3 will serve as prototype for 3rd gen platform

Others predicted that it will just shave costs by getting MY treatment structural pack w. F/R Gigacastings

Here are NEW POINTS
1/ 2/
From 4/1 Model 3 SR will stop being eligible for tax credit, while M3P and MY retain eligibility

M3SR extremely important for Tesla's results, as it uses LFP and doesn't encroach on limited ternary battery supplies.

SRs are *IN ADDITION TO* not *INSTEAD OF* other cars

THE REAL PRICE WAR

In a mini-newsletter I sent my patrons earlier this month, I attached an article from China and gave a heads-up that while we focus on EVs, the effects of Tesla's price cuts on ICEV prices is potentially much more important
1/🧵 2/
The idea is simple:

Tesla lowered prices and triggered an EV price war, where competitors are forced to slash prices to remain half-relevant

But with modern EVs getting cheaper and cheaper, demand for ICE fell off a cliff and @jpr007 's Valley of Death became a real factor.

21 Hours to go till Tesla's Investor Day presentation, and I realized that I didn't post my Livestream on Twitter.

The production is SH*T, completely amateurish (see 2/) but the content AFAIK is unique so could interest you
2/
Production was horrible. The only good thing about it is that next time can only be better.

But the content is unique, and just a tip of the iceberg

GIVING CREDIT TO #FORD (@jimfarley98 so should you!)

Ford's CEO recently discussed various inefficiencies in procuring Mach-E. For example, needlessly-long wiring and hosing

However, this isn't a fault. THIS IS FINE and a CREDIT to previous management

People tend to forget
1/ 2/
People forget that Ford developed the Mach-E skunkworks style, in a single year by the small "Team Edison"

👏👏FORD WORKED AGILE👏👏 They did NOT try to get everything right, just make a good-enough car fast enough, hitch onto the learning curve and start sliding wright's law

TESLA ENERGY ROCKING IT!!!
(or am i imagining things?)

A couple of hours ago Tesla posted on YT this vid that they tweeted some time ago - "Meet Megafactory"

What's interesting though is the text beneath it...
1/🧵
"Megafactory is one of the largest utility-scale battery factories in NA, capable of producing 10,000 Megapack units every year, equal to 40 GWh of clean energy storage"

Something in the phrasing caught my eye.

JESUS! (OH, HOW I LOVE ENGINEERING RABBIT HOLES)

I dedicated Highland vids to @live_munro, @teardowntitan, @CorySteuben @arocha_jordan for two reasons:
A. Having gained so much from THEIR videos💪, I wanted to give back

(And YES, 2nd video WILL give them food for thought!)

1/

https://twitter.com/ConnectingODots/status/1619438213541818370

2/
B. Putting this out opens me for scrutiny, which puts pressure on me to get things right

With an absurd level of ADHD when it's comfy I slack but under pressure I'm at my very best

I want this vid to be as COMPLETE and THOROUGH as possible for a guide predicting Tesla's tech

EXPOSING @WR4NYGov 😁

I hate doing this, but transparency must prevail!

You know how when @RealDanODowd bashed FSD, we hollered that he should disclose that #Tesla is competing with his company @GreenHillsPR and threatens to throw it out of business?

1/ 2
Since @WR4NYGov often bashes Peter Rawlinson and @LucidMotors, for FULL-DISCLOSURE pointing out that technically Warren and Rawlinson are competitors, as Warren's EV company PodCar is a Lucid competitor and threatens to throw it out of business😂

ELON'S PROJECT HIGHLAND, FORD & THE TESLA MODEL TAU - A Manufacturing Revolution
New Video Out

Project Highland is much more than a Model 3 upgrade. It's the start of a manufacturing revolution that includes the Model Tau!
1/🧵
In this two video series I explore what Project Highland is about. The first video, "Cracking the Easter Eggs" dives into history to provide a peek into the future.

The second video, out soon, will provide an engineering analysis of highland's breakthrough production methods

Project Highland is much more than a Model 3 upgrade. If I'm reading the Easter eggs right, it's the start of a whole new manufacturing revolution!

New video out SUNDAY, once Patreon Early Access is over, or watch it now for $1 or higher: patreon.com/posts/77818625
1/
#Tesla @RemindMe_OfThis in 2 days
@remindmetweets in 2 days
@UnrollHelper please unroll

TESLA BUYBACK MISCONCEPTION

Despite discussions saying otherwise, BUYBACK IN 2022 IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE
1/🧵 2/
I find it puzzling why so many people say IN CERTAINTY that buyback won't be this year

I'm not saying it WILL, but def that it COULD, despite what Tesla said in investor call

I will explain

I AM OPPOSED TO INVESTMENT RATING TESLA
Going against the grain. Hear me out.

@MmeAlexandraS shows a wonderful display of why S&P and Moody's should have rated Tesla as investment grade

If course she is right, and although later than before, it will happen

I WISH IT WON'T
1/🧵

https://twitter.com/TeslaBoomerMama/status/1565302556301004801

2/
First let me describe my audience: if like me you are a long-term investor with no plans to sell in next few years, YOU SHOULD BE OPPOSED to the upgrade.

(If you're a TRADER who wants to sell on the rise, sure you would want it. This thread is not for you)